Bet spread for 4 deck game UK rules

tezzadiver

Well-Known Member
#1
Hi All,
First of all- merry christmas!
I have some questions on a reasonable bet spread to use on a 4 deck game in the UK. The rules are DS17, double on any 2 cards, Dealer no hole card, Split any pair and double after split, no surrender or insurance and about 75 -80% penetration.
My bankroll is a 4K and I have been spreading 1-6. Wong out at -1 , 2 units at +1, 4units at +2, and 6 units at +3 and over. (the 4 and 6 units played over 2 hands).
Is this bet spread significant enough to beat the game? As i have a small bankroll, I cannot afford to spread 1-16 as a deviation could wipe me out! Any help much appreciated and if anyone knows of any good games in London let us know too!!Thanks!
 

ycming

Well-Known Member
#2
As far as i know there is only 1 4 decks game in london. 1-6 is just way too small i think. Defo need 1-12/1-16 to be profitable!

Ming
 

tezzadiver

Well-Known Member
#3
But its still possible to make a profit right? even if it takes longer? If I`m spreading 1-16 units( in my case my max bet would be £80 and min£5), I have a greater likelihood of hitting a streak(perhaps losing) and getting wiped out over 40 maximum bets(if lost)
By using a lower bet spread 1-6 and not playing negatve counts, should I not have a good chance of making a profit? And If on a losing streak my ROR is low.
Perhaps the profits would take longer to come but Snyder insists that the 4 deck game can be beaten with a spread of 1-4, IF not playing negative counts.
Any thoughts on this anyone?
 

Deathclutch

Well-Known Member
#4
tezzadiver said:
But its still possible to make a profit right? even if it takes longer? If I`m spreading 1-16 units( in my case my max bet would be £80 and min£5), I have a greater likelihood of hitting a streak(perhaps losing) and getting wiped out over 40 maximum bets(if lost)
By using a lower bet spread 1-6 and not playing negatve counts, should I not have a good chance of making a profit? And If on a losing streak my ROR is low.
Perhaps the profits would take longer to come but Snyder insists that the 4 deck game can be beaten with a spread of 1-4, IF not playing negative counts.
Any thoughts on this anyone?
If you want to play that small of a spread then you'll need to be backcounting and only come in when you have an advantage.
 

tezzadiver

Well-Known Member
#5
Deathclutch said:
If you want to play that small of a spread then you'll need to be backcounting and only come in when you have an advantage.
Herein lies the problem deathclutch. The casino`s I play at are pretty small and backcounting is pretty obvious to PB`s. Generally lots of toilet and smoke breaks to avoid negative counts. Drinking lots of tea does the trick!LOL.
But to get back to the question- Can a bet spread of 1-4/6 beat a 4 deck game with the rules I have outlined on a long term basis?
 

Deathclutch

Well-Known Member
#6
tezzadiver said:
Herein lies the problem deathclutch. The casino`s I play at are pretty small and backcounting is pretty obvious to PB`s. Generally lots of toilet and smoke breaks to avoid negative counts. Drinking lots of tea does the trick!LOL.
But to get back to the question- Can a bet spread of 1-4/6 beat a 4 deck game with the rules I have outlined on a long term basis?
I haven't simmed it, I'm sure some of the other guys here are better at that than me, but by just looking at the rules I'm going to say that won't be enough. No insurance is going to hurt a lot, along with the no HC. I would assume your minimal spread would be 1-8 or 1-10, but once again hopefully someone better with sims double checks that for you.
 

ycming

Well-Known Member
#7
I havce simmed a 1-12 spread play all Hi-lo and knowing all indicies you are only expected to make £6.XX / hour .... but in syaing that is for a 6 decks game.

Ming
 

UK-21

Well-Known Member
#9
Even if the shoe is only four deck, I would think that wonging in on pos counts and spreading 1-6 will only give a marginal +EV. If you're betting unit is a fiver, your longer term return expectation will be less than a fiver an hour.

I've done some sums assuming 1-8 spread on a 6 deck shoe, and playing all and this gives a marginally +EV, but it represents less than about £2 an hour with a £2 betting unit (the table mins out in the scrubs). If you're playing where I think you are the chances of being able to wong in on pos counts only are remote -when it is possible off-peak, watching people play for hours on end and then jumping in for a few hands and then leaving to watch again you'll stick out like a pair of bulldogs bo!!ox. And the staff there are more "counter savvy" than in your local Gala, although if you're playing table mins only they probably wouldn't care less.

If you're playing with a fixed bankroll then you need to increase it in order to increase the spread - assuming of course your aim is to make money from the game. If you play for the crack, don't worry about it as the variance in the game will swamp (someone elses term but I like it) any difference between marginally +EV, marginally -EV and dead even.

Good luck.
 

tezzadiver

Well-Known Member
#10
UK-21 said:
Even if the shoe is only four deck, I would think that wonging in on pos counts and spreading 1-6 will only give a marginal +EV. If you're betting unit is a fiver, your longer term return expectation will be less than a fiver an hour.

I've done some sums assuming 1-8 spread on a 6 deck shoe, and playing all and this gives a marginally +EV, but it represents less than about £2 an hour with a £2 betting unit (the table mins out in the scrubs). If you're playing where I think you are the chances of being able to wong in on pos counts only are remote -when it is possible off-peak, watching people play for hours on end and then jumping in for a few hands and then leaving to watch again you'll stick out like a pair of bulldogs bo!!ox. And the staff there are more "counter savvy" than in your local Gala, although if you're playing table mins only they probably wouldn't care less.

If you're playing with a fixed bankroll then you need to increase it in order to increase the spread - assuming of course your aim is to make money from the game. If you play for the crack, don't worry about it as the variance in the game will swamp (someone elses term but I like it) any difference between marginally +EV, marginally -EV and dead even.

Good luck.
Thanks UK 21. Very helpful reply you posted. Guess I just have to increase my spread. Damn. Thought I might be able to get away with it. Up till now after about 100 playing sessions I`m up about 130 units. best session was up 180 units. Can you believe it? cashed in £100 worth of chips, walked out with 1K!! worst losing session down 140 units. Both were marathon sessions of 5 hrs each, like you say there is little heat when you are playing small stakes.
I will increase my spread from 1-8/12 and see how things go.
When do you recommend its good to stop? For example winning 5 big bets and the same losing?? I`ve tried to cut my sessions to 1hr max.
 

UK-21

Well-Known Member
#11
Walking away from the tables after you have won, or lost, "X" big bets in a row has no mathematical logic. Whether you do so or not won't affect anything in terms of the win expectation from paying a +EV game.

Keeping sessions short is essential to keeping the welcome mat out. Although heat and anti-counter measures are far less common in the UK than the US, even in the UK spreading widely for around 15-20% of the time for hours on end will eventually mean you'll pass what passes for the local tolerance level and you'll be refused service.
 

Elhombre

Well-Known Member
#12
and this gives a marginally +EV, but it represents less than about £2 an hour with a £2 betting unit (the table mins out in the scrubs). If you're playing where I think

Hello UK-21, are there any casinos in London with a min of 2 pounds ?
How many ?
I plan to go there in January.

regards Eh.
 

UK-21

Well-Known Member
#13
Not to the best of my knowledge. Minimum I've found in London is £5.00. That's the Gala in Tottenham Court Road and Napoleons in Leicester Square (Napoleons is much nicer and has a good restaurant, although I've never yet eaten there).

Table minimum of £2.00 is quite common in the regional Gala casinos.
 

tezzadiver

Well-Known Member
#14
UK-21 said:
Not to the best of my knowledge. Minimum I've found in London is £5.00. That's the Gala in Tottenham Court Road and Napoleons in Leicester Square (Napoleons is much nicer and has a good restaurant, although I've never yet eaten there).

Table minimum of £2.00 is quite common in the regional Gala casinos.
Nope the minimum table amount is £5. There are no casinos at all in London that you can find for under £5. All the gala`s,lci`s and napoleons are minimum £5. The rest are minimu £10.
 
Top