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  #1  
Old January 11th, 2010, 03:35 PM
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Mimosine Mimosine is offline
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Default Horrific 9 months at the tables

It's been a long time since I've posted anything of substance.

I've been playing in the shadows, not really reporting here. Read Exhibit CAA, playing all over US.

A little background. I started playing in 2007 with a measly bankroll of $700. Over the course of a year I had invested $2500 of my own money and built that bankroll up to $4800 using KO. This happened with a lot of luck and weaker than necessary bet spreads. The whole time playing the best games I could find. over the course of the year i had 18 winning sessions and 6 losing sessions.

2008-2009 was a year of stellar growth. Bankroll grew from 4800 to 7700 in 27 sessions.

Sometime in 2008 I helped develop Open Source UBZII and switched over to it without issue.

2009 First 13 sessions brought bankroll to $11,400. Next 24 sessions saw huge roller coaster all the way down to $8400 and back up to $11,023.50

The remaining 25 sessions of 2009 saw the bankroll deteriorate down to $4000. it was an unbelievably difficult past 9 months. During the downward spiral I did decrease max bets (usually around 1.2% of BR), and avoided steaming. I played my best game and quit only when tired or when tapped out. SEVERAL of the session losses I've seen, even 3 hour losses have been massive.

I've stopped to double check my game at many intervals, it always checked out. For UBZII I ran the sims and double checked results with co-conspirator and cross referenced George C's book, Renzey's book, BJA, etc.

I can safely say, save for a few 'old timers' here. I've seen more dealer 20s this year, when I was staring at my 19 than I care to recall or than any of you did.

If I believed in luck, i would say it has been a bad luck year. instead I say that the cards just didn't fall the way I hoped... and I'm sitting on the -2 SD line.

I've been thinking what should my game plan be for this year. I have plenty of cash to invest. i could revert to KO, though don't see this as the problem. I could play off the remaining 4000 as if it were 10k, knowing I can reinvest at will. I could play the 4000 at Kelley and build back up. I'm thinking of playing as if I have a 10k bankroll. $40 max bets aren't really worth my time. It would be better to lose it all and not play again than to make like $6/hr.

if there is anything i'm missing here, let me know. I'm not afraid of the game, and am prepared to lose it all or win it all back. I have the time, energy and wherewithal to make it happen. I can do it with a clear head. I have 4 days in a town with 20 casinos coming up in a month and am starting to hone my game now for 2010.

Thanks for the read, and hopefully there is something of use to new people on this forum with dreams of endless, exponential growth. This reality check was bound to happen, but the speed and steepness of the check was unexpected.
  #2  
Old January 11th, 2010, 04:18 PM
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kewljason kewljason is offline
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First off, my condolences on a horrid 2009, and better wishes for 2010. Since you didn't go into specifics about your game, bet spreads, RoR ect, I don't think anyone can offer more than very general observations, and here's mine: 37 sessions at what 2 hours per equals 74 hours? I am guessing here. Maybe 100 hours total if your sessions are closer to 3 hours. Still a very small sampling and very much in the short run. I know down 2 SD's is horrendous to you, but certainly not implausible. If you are playing a winning game as you believe and can afford to lose the addition $4 grand as you state you can, I say keep playing. See what happens.


One additional thought. If you look at your 3 year total rather than 2009, it sounds like you started with $3200 ($700 initial + $2500 additinal investment) so ur 3 year total is +$800 (is that correct). Certainly still below expectation, but probably far less than 1 SD.

Last edited by kewljason; January 11th, 2010 at 04:26 PM. Reason: spelling
  #3  
Old January 11th, 2010, 04:39 PM
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creeping panther creeping panther is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mimosine View Post
It's been a long time since I've posted anything of substance.

I've been playing in the shadows, not really reporting here. Read Exhibit CAA, playing all over US.

A little background. I started playing in 2007 with a measly bankroll of $700. Over the course of a year I had invested $2500 of my own money and built that bankroll up to $4800 using KO. This happened with a lot of luck and weaker than necessary bet spreads. The whole time playing the best games I could find. over the course of the year i had 18 winning sessions and 6 losing sessions.

2008-2009 was a year of stellar growth. Bankroll grew from 4800 to 7700 in 27 sessions.

Sometime in 2008 I helped develop Open Source UBZII and switched over to it without issue.

2009 First 13 sessions brought bankroll to $11,400. Next 24 sessions saw huge roller coaster all the way down to $8400 and back up to $11,023.50

The remaining 25 sessions of 2009 saw the bankroll deteriorate down to $4000. it was an unbelievably difficult past 9 months. During the downward spiral I did decrease max bets (usually around 1.2% of BR), and avoided steaming. I played my best game and quit only when tired or when tapped out. SEVERAL of the session losses I've seen, even 3 hour losses have been massive.

I've stopped to double check my game at many intervals, it always checked out. For UBZII I ran the sims and double checked results with co-conspirator and cross referenced George C's book, Renzey's book, BJA, etc.

I can safely say, save for a few 'old timers' here. I've seen more dealer 20s this year, when I was staring at my 19 than I care to recall or than any of you did.

If I believed in luck, i would say it has been a bad luck year. instead I say that the cards just didn't fall the way I hoped... and I'm sitting on the -2 SD line.

I've been thinking what should my game plan be for this year. I have plenty of cash to invest. i could revert to KO, though don't see this as the problem. I could play off the remaining 4000 as if it were 10k, knowing I can reinvest at will. I could play the 4000 at Kelley and build back up. I'm thinking of playing as if I have a 10k bankroll. $40 max bets aren't really worth my time. It would be better to lose it all and not play again than to make like $6/hr.

if there is anything i'm missing here, let me know. I'm not afraid of the game, and am prepared to lose it all or win it all back. I have the time, energy and wherewithal to make it happen. I can do it with a clear head. I have 4 days in a town with 20 casinos coming up in a month and am starting to hone my game now for 2010.

Thanks for the read, and hopefully there is something of use to new people on this forum with dreams of endless, exponential growth. This reality check was bound to happen, but the speed and steepness of the check was unexpected.
Mimo,

From reading your post I am impressed as you seem to have done all well.

However, this does point out the danger of using counting alone and playing along with the CW of how to attack the game. AS you notice CAA went against CW in his approach to some games and indeed snears at straight counting alone. As far as I am concerned you are living proff as to what can and often does occur to many players.

My advice to you, rethink your approach,,,and play only fine games.

CP
  #4  
Old January 11th, 2010, 05:00 PM
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Mimosine Mimosine is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kewljason View Post
If you look at your 3 year total rather than 2009, it sounds like you started with $3200 ($700 initial + $2500 additinal investment) so ur 3 year total is +$800 (is that correct). Certainly still below expectation, but probably far less than 1 SD.
total investment is 2500, current BR is 4000. three years of part time play = $1500 up. sorry for the ambiguity.

and thanks for the thoughts.
  #5  
Old January 11th, 2010, 05:34 PM
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daddybo daddybo is offline
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ahh, my alkaloid friend... minor setback... Take that 4K and go for it.
  #6  
Old January 11th, 2010, 08:10 PM
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zengrifter zengrifter is offline
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Calculate for me what the time and StDv was for the last 25 sessions was, and
a candid account of how poor your games and how adequate your spread was. zg
  #7  
Old January 11th, 2010, 11:46 PM
Krak3d Krak3d is offline
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Eventually you'll go back to winning, since you're a pro player. Just like you said, the cards didn't fall you're way, and since you have lots of money to invest, go for it with the 4K and see what happens.
  #8  
Old January 12th, 2010, 12:18 AM
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Pelerus Pelerus is offline
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I feel for you Mims. -190 units and half a year's win gone in one trip is where I am at right now, so I am right there with you.
  #9  
Old January 12th, 2010, 05:14 AM
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creeping panther creeping panther is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelerus View Post
I feel for you Mims. -190 units and half a year's win gone in one trip is where I am at right now, so I am right there with you.
I applaud your honesty, this is how we learn...it opens doors.

CP
  #10  
Old January 12th, 2010, 11:29 AM
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Mimosine Mimosine is offline
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i kinda felt a little strange about putting the report in $s, but units really don't make much sense to me anymore since I play 6d, DD, SD. At each game the unit might be different to achieve the same Max Bet. I reported this in $s for illustrative purposes.

e.g. for DD a $25 unit bet was standard, for SD, closer to $30, for 6D $5 or $10 depending.

And thanks for the advice and kind words.

I'll try and crunch some numbers soon, that is one thing I haven't done religiously - using CVCX.

I've kept good logs though of all sessions. But perhaps stitching together CVCX sims and logs and tabulating session results VS. EV might be something I should do this year... Thoughts? Pretty easy to do with Excel and CVCX after a session (punch in hours, pen, spread - get EV).... does anyone else do this on a session by session basis??? it wouldn't be too much work, since most of my sessions (~5/day) come out of 2-3 day blitzkriegs.

Last edited by Mimosine; January 12th, 2010 at 11:32 AM.
 

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