live and learn

I am off to an amazing start this year. It was only a few years ago that it would take me most of the year to hit 5 figures and this year I have done so in 2 weeks. Of course this represents a very small sample of play and I am several expectaions above EV, but it is still great to start fast.

Five years ago, I had a similar fast start, way above EV after only a few weeks. At that time I decided to cut my wagers in half, so that when the "correction" came, I would only loss half as much. Guess what? The correction never came. I simply won at a slower rate for the rest of the year and at the end of year was pretty close to expectaion. Unfortunately, my earnings were reduced because of my bone head plan to cut my losses. Live and learn! I won't make that mistake this time. My next session doesn't know that I am already several SD above expectation.

Thats definately a great lesson to learn! Lucky for you, you didn't start with losses and try to increase your bets for the "inevitable upswing." That would definately be a recipe for disaster. And congrats on the positive variance

That's right. Keep in mind that any deviate results are yours to keep, there is no variance gnome out there that will make you give it back.

It works both ways, when you have a bad loss the gnome doesn't make it up to you either. Such a belief can lead to steaming to make up losses.

Maybe the best way to categorize it mentally is to put all the deviate sessions in one category, be they wins or losses, and the nice smooth +EV ones in another.

just keep boasting about all that positive variance of yours :grin:

and yes, totally agree with everyone else, dont lower your ramp in anticipation for the 'correction'

good luck to you!

Don't worry, I won't lower ramp, spread or wagers, Matt. As I said, that was a lesson learned the hard way. As for the variance, I try to enjoy it while I can. Probably won't be long before I am bitching about a 3 month downslide again. :laugh:

I enjoy having this outlet to share some of my experiences with others and hear about their's in return. When I talk about this stuff at home, I am met with a blank stare. The person I live is still thinks I have just been lucky (for 6 years...lol) and is expecting me to go broke any day now.

this is one of the things i find hard with AP-ing, having an outlet to share experiences. i have had a lot of funny stories & situations so far but there's basically nobody to share them with - maybe i should have kept a diary? I am always paranoid to share real specific stories here since you never who might read them and then suddendly matt21's cover is blown :grin:

The critical thing to remember is; "No matter what's just happened, the single most likely thing to happen next is the normal thing."

Being Conservative For the Good

Although it appears you hurt your NO by your past actions there is nothing wrong with being conservative with larger of sums of money:joker::whip:

If one uses some sort of resizing plan but instead of always raising bets on positive swings they built a reserve against negative swings ones NO would be lowered.:joker::whip:

Im curious. How do you do that?

You mean like having a smaller bankroll to (at least partially) cover losses in your main BR? Because I suppose that it technically does improve N0 for your main BR, although the N0 is the same for your combined BRs

Frequency or Not so Much

Let's say one chooses to change betting ramps on doubling or losing half of bank. If they double the bank but decide to not raise bets or to not raise bets as much then they have more units to lose before potentially having to cut bets.:joker::whip: If they keep the same betting ramp then they could lose 3/4 of new bank before resizing bets down. The less frequently you resize your betting ramp the lower the NO.

In the Middle of Extremes

3sd NO for continuous resizing = 36NO
3sd NO for fixed bets = 9NO

Only one bank

So if one resizes less frequently their NO is lower then one who resizes more frequently. Also, obviously if you don't resize bets upward as frequently you lower your ror or risk of bankroll drawdown.:joker::whip:

Perhaps I'm not understanding this correctly, but this is what I've come to understand regarding Kelly betting:

Let's say you want a fixed RoR of 5%. Let's say that corresponds to $5-$50 betting and a $10k bankroll.

True Kelly betting (the optimal betting) would say that if your bankroll decreases to $5k, to keep your RoR constant you would change your betting to $2.5-$25, and if your bankroll increases to $20k, to keep your RoR constant you would change your betting to $10-$100.

Am I mistaken or is this true? Because mathematically the % of your bankroll you bet should be proportional to your advantage according to optimal Kelly betting. So for a given advantage the $$ you bet would change based on your bankroll.