Our New Team. Profitable?

Hey guys!

I have formed a small team to hit our local casino. Its the only casino around so they kind of have a monopoly over the whole industry and the conditions,well, they mostly suck. The main gaming floor consists of CSMs and 6:5 games, we have no intention of going anywhere near there! They do offer two VIP rooms where the following conditions are in place:

8 decks
DA2
H17
Split to 3
Aces split to 2
No re-split of Aces
DAS
BJ pays 3:2
Insurance 2:1
OBBO

They're not the greatest, but the penetration that some dealers offer is less than a deck. We have a thorough dealer log of those who offer the best penetration, so we figure that the average rules are offset by that fact.

We were going to wong in at +2 with $30, $60 @ +3, $100 @ +4, $150 @ +5 and $200 @ +6.

What is the general consensus amongst fellow counters on the profitability of such conditions with such a bet spread?

Please feel free to ask any other questions. I should clarify we are using Hi-Lo with an additional ace side count.

you should ask if someone can run a sim for you on cvdata. I just got the two cv sim software, so i am not the person to ask to do it for you, since i am still learning how to use them properly. I am sure someone on the forum can run it for you. Just specific, how many players you plan to have, and the betting ramps and the minium betting each of you intended to start to play with (if that is applicable).

Ok, what is your total bankroll? Is it replenishable? Are you sure these VIP tables allow mid shoe entry? Are you playing this as a BP team with spotters or as individuals pooling money and splitting overall wins? How many players on the team? Do you have a wong out point? Do you have a plan for splitting profits as well as adding to the bankroll?

They definitely allow mid shoe entry. It has been this way for 16 years now. Our bankroll isnt as strong as it should be, but it is replenishable and we work mostly on a sessional basis for now until we can gather something substantial. We pool money together and employ spotters, side counters, gorillas, big players etc. and then split evenly each night. We usually dont wong in until about half way anyway and play through until the end of the shoe unless the count becomes ridiculously low, in which case we walk.

The general consensus is that you are going to waste your time. You will make about $30/hr for each big player. Not much after you split that with the team. With only one casino to play at you will wear out your welcome pretty quickly. Even with mid shoe entry, high rollers hate when people jump into their tables. You will get away with it a few times but the high rollers will get annoyed with you very quickly. The casino will figure you out when they see the same group of guys showing up together all the time. By the way what are side counters?

Ace side count. 1 unit/ hr? That seems a little bit too short I think.

No, you do not have enough profit to employ anyone who isn't laying a full spread at the tables.

Here's my advice. Play two guys at a time, whoever is playing at the casino that night combines their results, and that's the extent of your teamwork.

So you're suggesting perhaps 2 spotters/2 players? We are not employing anyone. We each pool our money and split between us.

You just watched the movie?

Ming

What movie?

I thought it was a bit generous but with 7/8ths pen you might get $30. Using a 0-1 spread betting $200 at TC3 or more might get you over $40/hr with comparable risk. Counters in Australia should be playing Pontoon which is the superior game. Katrina Walkers book has everything you need to calculate expectation. It is exceptional. The heat will be far less on the pontoon tables than in the high limit room as well so you may be able to play away for years without being trespassed. Since you already know the hi-lo count just use it and make yourself a little colour strategy card with the pontoon plays and index numbers. Unless you are sequencing, shuffle tracking, or next carding I would forget about BJ in Australia. If you PM me the rules for pontoon where you play I can send you back your expectation. It should be greater than can be achieved at BJ.
-Brock

First of all, 2 spotters to 2 players is not a good ratio unless you are forced to use play-all gorillas (which you mention, but your description is unclear as to what strategies you are using). You would want to have more spotters than BPs so that you can keep the BPs busy and not standing around wasting time.

But in your situation you shouldn't be using spotters at all. They do not earn any money but you have to split your profits with them. With your small bet spread and uncertain bankroll you should stick with regular play. Just have everyone playing on their own and split the profits. Here is a link from the Frequently Asked Questions thread (which is a good place to start):

Q: I want to start a team. How should we bet?
A: Well, if you don’t know how to bet then you aren’t ready to start a team. Keep studying and practicing until you have every piece of your game plan ready. In the meantime, read through some of these old threads:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=28662
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=6468

And it is probably better if you dump the ace side count unless you are using it for a side bet or something.

-Sonny-

I should clarify, they're not spotters per se, they were going to stand behind tables and backcount. They would then call in a gorilla who would play and in the event the TC reached >+4, the big player would come and offload chips. Do you suggest in order to heighten profits that perhaps there are 2 backcounters and 2 gorilla types, or perhaps even 3 spotters and a single gorilla?

My advice to you is don't do it! Just from the questions you are asking, it is more than clear that you are ill prepared for this venture. Now I am not familiar with blackjack down under or how tolorant they are or surveilance sophistication, but I am assumming they are on par with us here and if you do this big player approach in one local casino, you are going to shorten the BJ career of yourself and team members. All casinos and surveilance departments know of this big player team approach by now and although there are still some sucessfull teams employing it, they have many players and move around alot! Many many different locations! Not just one local casino.

You may want to consider the approach that AM suggested and just pool your money, with members play individually off the same bank. With this approach, members can play a larger unit and spread than they would on their own and it smooths out the variance and helps you get to the so called "long-run" quicker.

Perhaps ill prepared, but i know BS in my sleep, and full indexes. Its not so much I am ill prepared at BJ, more how a team runs and how to operate one, as I have never done such a thing. I am purely seeking advice on the successful operation of one.

Really what is the BR you guys got (from 5 people)?

10k each?

Ming

Yes approximately that.

This plan isn't going to work - at least not for any length of time. If you play as an Every Man For Himself team where you pool bankrolls and play individually you're going to get picked off one at a time - especially playing in the VIP suites where surveillence is far more likely to run you down.
If you play a BP/spotter routine the extra cover inherient in the play will probably allow you to play a little longer, but you're unlikely to make enough to make it worth your while considering you have to split the profits, and truthfully with only one venue the extra cover won't extend your lifespan by that much.
Playing a counting game and playing only one or two locations - unless you are playing mini-stakes - simply doesn't work for any length of time. Even with stronger games than counting, if you are hitting the same venue week after week, it's not going to take them long to decide they don't like you.

RJT.

Its a catch 22 then. Its on the ONLY Casino in our entire state, and the best in the country. It is also one of the largest in the southern hemisphere, and the largest in Australia, therefore we are going on the premise that they have a lot of bigger fish to fry. I have personal ties with staff due to my past experiences with the Casino and have been told that I shouldnt worry too much about heat, as its virtually non existent. There are simply too many patrons.