Spread vs Penetration

Playing around with different simulation parameters, I've realized that when the penetration is better, you should wait a little bit (i.e. waiting for a slightly higher count) before betting more and the count at which you bet your max bet increases slightly.

Is this reasoning correct for why that's the case?:
With a worse penetration, the frequency of getting to those high counts decreases, and therefore you must compensate by starting to bet more a bit earlier.

I believe you are correct. Since the penetration is deeper you can wait a bit longer for higher TC with a higher advantage and put yourself at a lower risk. With worse penetration you need to get the money out as soon as you have a slight advantage just because of the loss of TC frequencies.

Why would you do that? What is the sense in seeking out better games, if you are then going to reduce your betting spread and ramp so that you have the same results? I seek out better games, so that my win rate and amounts will increase.

For a safer ROR.

I believe assume_R is using KO. And if you run a sim using KO with very deep penetration, a strange thing happens: It shows that the count at which you have an advantage is 1 or 2 higher than you would expect.

Using an IRC of -20 for 6D, the key count (where you have an advantage) is supposed to be -4. But with deep pen, the sim shows it’s sometimes -3 or even -2.

This seems to be an oddity associated with unbalanced counts. And if someone can explain why that happens, I’d be interested to see it!

IF I recall from many of the cvcx sims I ran the deeper pen allows you more steps to move your bet spread on since higher TC integers are
obtained.

For example if you run a 4/6 sim the highest TC to be obtained 1% of the time lets say it's TC+5, then your 1-12 spread to maintain an optimum spread would be spread across TC+1 - TC+5, maybe in only 4 steps... say 1u,3u,7u,12u.

If you play a 5.5/6 game TC's of +7 or +8 maybe achieved 1% of the time which now adjusts the optimum bet spread in more steps, say for example only it may go TC+1=2u,tc3=3u, tc4=4u, tc5=5u, tc6=8u, tc7=10u, tc8=12u

Your putting out less money when you have a smaller advantage at low + counts, but the end result is your getting many more opportunities to put higher bets out when you have a higher advantage in the 5.5/6 game vs the 4/6 game and the win rate/hr confirms it.


BJC

I can understand that BJC, but who has the time or ability to analyze and run a sim for each different game and penetration they play so they can customize bet spread and ramp for that game on the fly?

I preset my spread and ramp to achieve results for the game that I expect to encounter that day, let's say a 6 deck/4.5 pen. If I am lucky enough to find a game going deeper, say 6/5 or 6/5.5, I dont want to tone down my game. I want to use those rare opportunities to turn a bigger profit. or at least expected profit. I understand that the RoR will be a little higher when I find these better opportunities but if you set the RoR low enough for your "generic" spread and ramp, the slight increase in RoR is acceptable and well worth the reward.

When the pen is deeper, you'll have a more frequent occurance of say, a +4 TC. If in your normal game with moderate pen, you bet 12 units at +4 TC -- then the deep pen game will increase your ROR as well as your EV. Granted, it will increase EV more than ROR, but still, in effect, you're gambling for higher stakes. To bring your risk back in line with your bankroll, you want to slow down your betting ramp.

Likewise, if you must play a game with poorer pen, using your standard ramp, you'll get fewer 12 unit bets out there, thereby lowering your ROR (along with your EV). Again, the EV drops drops more than the ROR, but you're now gambling for lower overall stakes. So you can redeem some of that lost EV by speeding up your ramp until your ROR is back up to normal.

Since pens vary from place to place, a quick and dirty rule of thumb to go by would be to pace your ramps such that they all produce the same 100 hand (or hourly) SD in reference sims.

I can see our posts crossed at the same time Renzey, but again, in reference to your last paragraph, I ask, how do you do that on the fly? I can't stop and run a sim for each game condition before I play.

Jason, this doesn't need to be done on the fly. Most of the ramps will be nearly identical with maybe a difference of 1 TC. Let's say your you only play S17 6 deck games. Run 3 sims, one for 4, 4.5, and 5 deck penetration. The ramps will be very close and easy to memorize. Now as you sit at the game you'll be playing with a more optimal ramp. The more your games vary the more difficult this process, but same game different penetration is easy.

Here are some quick sim results to give you a feel for how much the ramps should vary.

TC.............4.0 dks Pen...............4.5 dks Pen................5.0 dks Pen
+1.5................3u...........................2u............................2u
+2.0................5u...........................4u............................3u
+2.5................8u...........................6u............................5u
+3.0...............10u..........................8u............................6u
+3.5...............12u.........................10u...........................8u
+4.0.............................................12u..........................10u
+4.5............................................................................12u

All 3 ramps produce a 44 unit hourly SD in their respective games. I didn't run the sims long enough to hone in on their EV's. But what you're doing here is speeding up the ramp with poor pen to improve the diminished EV (since you now have the ROR cushion to do it), and slowing down the ramp with good pen to decrease the accelerated ROR. Even so, the EV will still be highest with the deep pen and lowest with the shallow pen, but all 3 will now be closer together while yielding similar ROR's.

bet ramps and penetration

I'm of the opinion that you should just check for the best ramp for the typical game that you will expect to find and just use that all the time. Maybe have a separate ramp each for 1, 2, and 6 deck and stick to it for all of them regardless of pen. Heat and other distractions will prevent you from betting like a pure robot. Know about what you're supposed to bet at each true count and just average about what your supposed to bet (sometimes a little more or less).

Winning at blackjack isn't about putting out precise bets at precise true counts. It's about betting little or nothing when the house has an edge and betting as much as you can get out there when you have an edge. when neither you or the house has much of an edge you can pretty much fool around and do what you want (just don't create too much variance). For low stakes players finding great pen and rules is key so you can build bankroll at low risk. For higher stakes players it's all about finding good tolerance and playable (not necessarily great) games.

Worry less about bet ramps...worry more about finding ways to put out your big bets and playing the best games you can find.

This is exactly my approach, BP. I set my spread and ramp for a very average 6 deck, 75% pen game. I seek out better penetration than this and on those occasions that I find a dealer going 5 decks deep or more, I know that my EV should be more. It is like a bonus for me. My RoR is low enough that if it is slighly higher during these advantagous times, I can live with that. The risk is worth the reward. I have enough to do without worrying about changing ramps for a slightly different game. (6/4.5 vs 6/5)

That's fine then. Just as an FYI though, be aware that using the middle betting ramp from my last example in all 3 games would produce hourly SD's of 39u, 44u and 52u respectively. Worth keeping in the back of your mind?!?!

See, That is more than fine with me, Renzey. Assuming your chart is for 6 deck game, I probably wouldn't be playing the 6/4 game unless there were some good rules. I would set my ramp, spread and RoR up for the 6/4.5 game and on those occassions that I was able to play a better game, like 6/5 game, I would consider the EV a bonus and the extra SD acceptable.

I can appreciate the math behind this concept, just for me, it seems more effort than its worth. I try to go with a kind of "keep it reasonable simple" approach to tax my little brain as little as possible.