So I lost 130 units in 3 hours

Bondy3

Well-Known Member
#1
I am using basic strategy, Counting with hi-lo, 6D H17 DAS DOA NS

I take insurance at a TC of +3, but I don't know the I-18 well enough to feel comfortable using it, so i am still sticking to basic strategy so I don't make mistakes. I think its better to play a solid game-plan that you know than make mistakes on a more complicated game-plan you don't know that well.

in the 3 hours that I played the TC never went below -2,

my bet spreading was

10, 10, 20, 30, 50, 2x60 (TC 0,1,2,3,4,5)

one shoe that I was playing the Running count rose really quickly to +10 by the 3rd hand and the TC was at +4 by the 4th hand, before I knew it the Running count was at 26 with 4 decks remaining (TC around 6.5) and since my betting spread doesn't really know what to do for this because it rarely ever happens, I raised my bets to 2x100,

dispite the fact that the TC was really high, I lost 2x100 units 4 times in a row, then I lost 2x60 units twice. and it was time to shuffle (thats a loss of 92 units in 6 hands)

But i know this game has a lot of variance so I kept playing (I brought 130 units with me) and in the next shoe the TC bounced back and forth between 2 and 3 a bit, but I still managed to loose 8 units, (now down to -100 units for the session, in a span of 2 shoes)

I kept playing through 2 more shoes (the count stayed between 0 and -2 pretty consistently for thoes 2 shoes) and I lost my remaining $300 (30 units)

overall I think I spent 3 hours playing, after the first hour and a half I was about break-even and then in the next hour and a half I had my horrible streak of bad luck.

How oftain do you guys (other AP's) loose your entire chip-stack when you play? is this sorta loss very common in a 3 hour game? if I was using the I18 would this not have happened?

i'm very discouraged, Ive never had a loss anywhere near this bad before and it doesn't feel good, I understand probability and I know I just got unlucky but it stings a lot, I lost all the profit that I had made since I started counting 3 weeks ago (64 units) and then I turned it into a loss of 66 units.
 

1357111317

Well-Known Member
#2
Losses like that do happen. However unless you are getting exceptional pen (5+/6) then you are not p laying a very good game only spreading 1-12. You want to be spreading at least 1-20 with some wonging in there. As for astounding losses I looked back at my records and my biggest loss was 489 units in 2 hours. I was spreading 3x1 unit to 3x20 units and the game I was playing has very high short term variance even though the score is 200+. I suggest you try and play a bit better game, IE have the bankroll to spread 1-20 and you also need to avoid some negative counts. It seems like your losses came on your big bets which will happen. If possible find a surrender game as this reduces your variance quite a bit.

These big losses are a prime example of why you need a very big bankroll to play bj. It is not a game for the feint of heart.
 
#3
if you jump the bet up that high that quickly in normal games, would you get heat for it. I guess Bondy3 can get away with it because he did it within a 6 hand, but under any other circumstances, would you not need to raise up on a steady pace to 2*600 units.
 

Blue Efficacy

Well-Known Member
#4
1-12 should be more than sufficient if wonging, assuming 75% pen. 1-20 will make you more money, but also more short term risk.

If you can you should try to find a game with RSA and LS, these will really, really help you out. I play shoes with 90% pen and LS, and I certainly don't even need to spread 1-12.

Also, if you are having trouble with the I18, adjust some of your basic strategy. I suggest always stand 16v10, and always stand 12v2-3. Then you'll be making the right plays when you have more money out.
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#6
zengrifter said:
You lost ONE TOP BET! :laugh: Thants why you need a BR of $10,000. zg
130 units ($1300) is way more than one of his top bets. :confused: If his top bet is 2 x $60, thats 20 top bets. But your point is still valid. That's why you need a large BR.
 
#7
kewljason said:
130 units ($1300) is way more than one of his top bets. :confused: If his top bet is 2 x $60, thats 20 top bets. But your point is still valid. That's why you need a large BR.
Oops :laugh: I never could COUNT. zg
 
#8
Bondy

Bondy3 said:
I am using basic strategy, Counting with hi-lo, 6D H17 DAS DOA NS

I take insurance at a TC of +3, but I don't know the I-18 well enough to feel comfortable using it, so i am still sticking to basic strategy so I don't make mistakes. I think its better to play a solid game-plan that you know than make mistakes on a more complicated game-plan you don't know that well.

in the 3 hours that I played the TC never went below -2,

my bet spreading was

10, 10, 20, 30, 50, 2x60 (TC 0,1,2,3,4,5)

one shoe that I was playing the Running count rose really quickly to +10 by the 3rd hand and the TC was at +4 by the 4th hand, before I knew it the Running count was at 26 with 4 decks remaining (TC around 6.5) and since my betting spread doesn't really know what to do for this because it rarely ever happens, I raised my bets to 2x100,

dispite the fact that the TC was really high, I lost 2x100 units 4 times in a row, then I lost 2x60 units twice. and it was time to shuffle (thats a loss of 92 units in 6 hands)

But i know this game has a lot of variance so I kept playing (I brought 130 units with me) and in the next shoe the TC bounced back and forth between 2 and 3 a bit, but I still managed to loose 8 units, (now down to -100 units for the session, in a span of 2 shoes)

I kept playing through 2 more shoes (the count stayed between 0 and -2 pretty consistently for thoes 2 shoes) and I lost my remaining $300 (30 units)

overall I think I spent 3 hours playing, after the first hour and a half I was about break-even and then in the next hour and a half I had my horrible streak of bad luck.

How oftain do you guys (other AP's) loose your entire chip-stack when you play? is this sorta loss very common in a 3 hour game? if I was using the I18 would this not have happened?

i'm very discouraged, Ive never had a loss anywhere near this bad before and it doesn't feel good, I understand probability and I know I just got unlucky but it stings a lot, I lost all the profit that I had made since I started counting 3 weeks ago (64 units) and then I turned it into a loss of 66 units.
Bondy,

You were expecting that OL' card counting magic eh....just like in Rainman and 21.....real life ain't like that.

You will never win the way you are playing and it has nothing to do with spreading 1-20 or 1-40 or 1-12. You are playing a weak game...you...and that game you play,, sucks,,,, would never allow myself to play it,,,plain and simple.

Sorry dude,,,you lose...casino wins:(

CP
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#9
creeping panther said:
Bondy,

You were expecting that OL' card counting magic eh....just like in Rainman and 21.....real life ain't like that.

You will never win the way you are playing and it has nothing to do with spreading 1-20 or 1-40 or 1-12. You are playing a weak game...you...and that game you play,, sucks,,,, would never allow myself to play it,,,plain and simple.

Sorry dude,,,you lose...casino wins:(

CP
There's CP, always pointing out how crappy everyone's game is. You seem to get some perverse pleasure out of doing so. :) In this case, you don't even have all the details, since I saw no mention of pen. :confused: What if this 6d, H17, Das, Doa game is dealt down to 10 cards? Is it still a horrible game? What if its dealt to half a deck? even 5/6 you can win with a decent spread. Granted, it's probably non of the above.
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#10
Bondy,
it just doesn't sound right that the count never got below tc = -2 after three hours of play.
just it doesn't seem normal to play 180 or more hands and not have more negative true counts.

the I18 wouldn't make all that much difference for three hours of play either.

do you have a bj simulator? do you know what to expect for a given number of hands played according to how you are betting? do you know what kind of variance from expectation might happen and how likely it may be to occur?

sounds as if your rather new at this stuff. just me maybe, but i'm pretty sure you'd be much safer getting your feet wet at a $5 or less table.
 
#14
Counts

Blue Efficacy said:
Just the other night I played a couple hours and the TC never dipped below -2.
Tonight I played a 6d with 5.5, I controlled the cut card each time, myself and 2 other players at the table, I had TC hoover from pos 10 to pos 20 for 4 hours of play and did very, very well :grin:. I was able to cut big slugs of aces to the front on several occasions,,,the key here is I controlled the cards, and that is a major AP play that Bondy is not doing, as well as other more basic things, like indice plays,,,besides a trash game,,,whoops,,there i go again:eek:

I do not get a "perverse pleasure", as Kewl says, pointing out to players about the bad games they are playing. I just care enough about them not to blow smoke up their as# about their chances of beating trash games. The idea here is to beat the house, not just play BJ for gamblings sake :rolleyes:

This evening I played with players who thought they were real good, they were up at times in the thousands, at the end of these long sessions they were broke, I was very much ahead, the reason, discipline and immersing oneself in the game to the greatest extent possible. Bondy needs to realize that this is what it will take for him to become a Predator AP, otherwise he will be just like 99% of the washouts, that tried but came up short.:(

CP
 

Thunder

Well-Known Member
#15
CP, it would be great if we could all have a nice slug of aces. The problem is, to cut a slug of aces effectively, the casino needs to have a rudimentary shuffling procedure. That can not always be found. You're quite lucky to have the games you have. Man 5.5/6 decks would be like mana from heaven for me.
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#16
I agree with Thunder. You are very lucky to have such great games available. And its great that you take advantage of that situation and do so well against them. (well, maybe not great for the casino industry in your area...lol) I am really happy for you. But I personally find it really annoying and offensive when you continually post that other players who don't have access to these great games, and play somewhat more average or poorer quality games cannot win! Maybe they won't win at the rate that you are accustomed to, but many other games can still be beaten and even by the lowly method of straight counting! Mathematics proves this and there are a number of players, myself included, that through hard work and disciplined play are able to consistantly beat these games. To continue to make your claims in the face of mathematical proof is really on the same level as Jstat claiming that only his 10 count works. It is just absurd. :eek:
 
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sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#17
kewljason said:
I agree with Thunder. You are very lucky to have such great games available. And its great that you take advantage of that situation and do so well against them. (well, maybe not great for the casino industry in your area...lol) I am really happy for you. But I personally find it really annoying and offensive when you continually post that other players who don't have access to these great games, and play somewhat more average or poorer quality games cannot win! Maybe they won't win at the rate that you are accustomed to, but many other games can still be beaten and even by the lowly method of straight counting! Mathematics proves this and there are a number of players, myself included, that through hard work and disciplined play are able to consistantly beat these games. To continue to make your claims in the face of mathematical proof is really on the same level as Jstat claiming that only his 10 count works. It is just absurd. :eek:
kewl won hopefully you'll make it to a Bj Bash sometime and see games the likes of which the Stealthy Won has been kind enough to share. that and the wealth of knowledge and experience that is shared amongst one another.
you, i believe are a pro player, have beaten as i remember even AC games, truly a remarkable feat. a real measure of intestinal fortitude and skill.

heck, i just know that having long term played and beaten such games that you know intimately the full degree of disappointment, exasperation and the temptation of self doubt that such games can engender. trust the math, sure, but doubtless such trust is more a foreign sentiment than most peoples common ordinary instincts, emotions and normal understanding of how events unfold lead one to believe.

just can go by my limited experience as a guy pursuing AP stuff.
it's like azbetsgonewild put it : http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=170102&postcount=95
like for me, in a nutshell:
in my first phase of learning, i had complete trust in the math, but knew nothing of the game from an experiential level. but as i went along i experienced nothing but luck, lol.
second phase of learning, i found out what bad luck was to the point of losing one seventh of what was a meager bankroll to begin with.
so at that point, even then i didn't doubt the math, but trust me i had a real wake up call as far as what the truth is about making money at this craft is really all about.
so but anyway for me, as far as blackjack is concerned the full scope of those years of experience lead me to decide that i would be a recreational player that enjoyed a modest return and most likely never lose all the loot i'd won in the first phase as long as i approached the game in a properly mathematically thought out fashion.
just me maybe, but i wont touch a bj game that is gonna require more of a grind than my time and resources (mental & financial) are equipped to deal with.

like, ok, the OP, i dunno, but i get the sense he is just starting out.
well, knowing CP as i do, i believe he doesn't want to see Bondy throwing a huge amount of his precious money at this brutal game and then end up flat busted out, disillusioned and then maybe even end up walking away not trusting this jewel of human accomplishment we call probability and statistics and an understanding of what advantage play really is.

it would be a real loss in more ways than one if the OP walks away from advantage play having lost money and having not taken with him the value of the insight of what the nature of advantage is.
if that ended up the case, then he'd just end being in essence what us AP predators enjoy as prey.:cat:
 

MAZ

Well-Known Member
#18
So we have a few bj predators here do we? No offense Big Cat but playing your cushy games does not make anyone a predator, it actually makes them a soft domestic feline. Not saying you personally, just in general. Nothing wrong with playing the best games you can, thats what you're supposed to do. But, what makes a cold blooded predator, is being able to rip apart semingly bad games. Fighting for your ap existence against the odds and winning breeds predators. Being hand fed great games in ideal conditions while being a great situation, does not hone the killer instinct it takes to say, beat the A.C. crap. A.C. is very beatable to those that have hardened themselves to play the way needed to not let themselves get force fed the garbage. Getting fat in lean conditions is when you earn the right of being called a killer. Again I take nothing away from those that have a great game to play and take full advantage of it, way to go. But true predators cannot stay long in such places and need to move on, and when they do they need to be able to feed on the harder to beat games as well. As much as I love my food put out for me, I get off on taking it from the unwilling as well.
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#19
sagefr0g said:
kewl won hopefully you'll make it to a Bj Bash sometime and see games the likes of which the Stealthy Won has been kind enough to share. that and the wealth of knowledge and experience that is shared amongst one another.
you, i believe are a pro player, have beaten as i remember even AC games, truly a remarkable feat. a real measure of intestinal fortitude and skill.

heck, i just know that having long term played and beaten such games that you know intimately the full degree of disappointment, exasperation and the temptation of self doubt that such games can engender. trust the math, sure, but doubtless such trust is more a foreign sentiment than most peoples common ordinary instincts, emotions and normal understanding of how events unfold lead one to believe.

just can go by my limited experience as a guy pursuing AP stuff.
it's like azbetsgonewild put it : http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=170102&postcount=95
like for me, in a nutshell:
in my first phase of learning, i had complete trust in the math, but knew nothing of the game from an experiential level. but as i went along i experienced nothing but luck, lol.
second phase of learning, i found out what bad luck was to the point of losing one seventh of what was a meager bankroll to begin with.
so at that point, even then i didn't doubt the math, but trust me i had a real wake up call as far as what the truth is about making money at this craft is really all about.
so but anyway for me, as far as blackjack is concerned the full scope of those years of experience lead me to decide that i would be a recreational player that enjoyed a modest return and most likely never lose all the loot i'd won in the first phase as long as i approached the game in a properly mathematically thought out fashion.
just me maybe, but i wont touch a bj game that is gonna require more of a grind than my time and resources (mental & financial) are equipped to deal with.

like, ok, the OP, i dunno, but i get the sense he is just starting out.
well, knowing CP as i do, i believe he doesn't want to see Bondy throwing a huge amount of his precious money at this brutal game and then end up flat busted out, disillusioned and then maybe even end up walking away not trusting this jewel of human accomplishment we call probability and statistics and an understanding of what advantage play really is.

it would be a real loss in more ways than one if the OP walks away from advantage play having lost money and having not taken with him the value of the insight of what the nature of advantage is.
if that ended up the case, then he'd just end being in essence what us AP predators enjoy as prey.:cat:
I spent a few days in the northern middle part of the country last month and played some pretty amazing games that I suspect are similar to CP's regular game. (color me green with envy) I am hoping to make a BJ bash in the near future. Would be great to meet some of you, characters, share some fun times and even continue these discussions in person. :laugh:

As for CP, who I like and respect a great deal, I know he probably has the best intentions, maybe protecting the player as you suggust, but come on, we are all adults here. Just lay out the facts and let people make there own decisions including bad ones. I have no problem with him, telling people how bad the game they are playing is, nor advising them against playing such. My issue, which he and I have discussed before, is when he states that these, less than ideal games can't be beaten, when mathematical evidence and personal experience proves that they can.

Just a quick add on here, to comment on Maz post, which was posted while I was typing. I like this view a lot and strongly agree with him. Very well said.
 
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RJT

Well-Known Member
#20
creeping panther said:
Tonight I played a 6d with 5.5, I controlled the cut card each time, myself and 2 other players at the table, I had TC hoover from pos 10 to pos 20 for 4 hours of play and did very, very well :grin:. I was able to cut big slugs of aces to the front on several occasions,,,the key here is I controlled the cards, and that is a major AP play that Bondy is not doing, as well as other more basic things, like indice plays,,,besides a trash game,,,whoops,,there i go again:eek:
This is fairly irrelevant to a beginner - you're discussing shuffle tracking which is far beyond what any beginner is going to be capable of. In fact it's far beyond what the majority of players will ever be capable of.
With reasonable penetration and good spread you could beat this game simply through counting - which is more achievable for a newbie. Counting isn't going to give a huge advantage and the player will probably never get the number of hands down to reach the long run and therefore guarentee profit, but it is technically possible to beat the game simply by counting. More than that though - i would never encourage a beginner to even attempt the strategies you're suggesting - it's simply bankroll suicide.
I genuinely think counting is little better than gambling - but in reality the loss discussed above is perfectly plausable even when using a counting system that gives the player an edge.
Also the opportunity you're discussing - that being a 6D game with good penetration and a trackable shuffle - is a very rare find inside the US and certainly not something that most players are going to encounter on any regular basis.
I agree with not blowing smoke - hence my recent posts in the New Team thread - but it should be a balanced view of what's achievable and until we know the details of the game (ie the penetration) it's difficult to say how beatable it is with counting.

RJT.
 
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