How does this strategy sound???

[PerkinsRyan]

Well I came up with this new system (although I searched the web and someone has already come up with it, so it's not actually mine) and I was first playing on the computer with craps and won over a million from just $5,000, then I tried it with blackjack because the odds are closer down the middle than the craps that I was playing. I was winning pretty big for the most part, so then I decided to play on my own off the computer with a real deck (my roommates thought I was wierd for playing with myself). I started with $100 (fake of course) and now I'm up to over $2000. Here's the betting strategy...

Start out with a 1 unit bet, (in my case I was doing $5 at a time), if you win do another 1 unit bet, if you lose do a 3 unit bet, if you lose after that go to a 7 unit bet, if you win go back to a 1 unit bet. The equation for this system is n+(L)n=b where (n) is the bet amount, (L) is the amount of loses since your last win, and (b) is the amount you bet. So the units go up 1,3,7,15,31,63...., the good thing about this is that if you have the capital to support the odds of losing before the next win you can win big and pretty quickly too, the bad thing about this is if you have a losing streak you can lose quick, especially at the beginning when you havent had the time to build up your bank, although the great thing about this is when you win you are not only regaining your loses your also gaining even more and make up the time that you have lost AND if you have a large bet out (which can get scary) if you hit a blackjack you win a very large amount. Today I was playing and got up to 31 unit bet, which was $155, rarely do i get up to that high of a bet, the draw was 2 Aces for me and a 6 for the dealer, so I split, got 2 Blackjacks and won $465, I know this is rare but it's just showing the good side of betting so high and using a negative betting sytem like this.


So here's what I was planning on doing playing $100 dollars with five dollars bets and cash out when I get up to $1100 and then go back on the table with $100 knowing that this system would have to fail 10 times before I am back to where I began, but first of course I have to win the $1000 which I have done numerous times. Right now without any actual mathmatical prove I seem to get up to that point about 50% of the time, this seems kind of odd, and actually since I've been playing real cards I actually have gotton up to that point 2 out of 3 times ending with $2100 with the $100 that I started out with.

My question to all of you is what do you think about this system, and can anyone give me real odds on what the chance is of getting up to $1100 from $100 with $5 units using the best odd hits accourding to these table stats: 6 deck, house hits on soft 17, blackjack pays 3:2?

[Cass]

Originally Posted by PerkinsRyan

Well I came up with this new system (although I searched the web and someone has already come up with it, so it's not actually mine) and I was first playing on the computer with craps and won over a million from just $5,000, then I tried it with blackjack because the odds are closer down the middle than the craps that I was playing. I was winning pretty big for the most part, so then I decided to play on my own off the computer with a real deck (my roommates thought I was wierd for playing with myself). I started with $100 (fake of course) and now I'm up to over $2000. Here's the betting strategy...

Start out with a 1 unit bet, (in my case I was doing $5 at a time), if you win do another 1 unit bet, if you lose do a 3 unit bet, if you lose after that go to a 7 unit bet, if you win go back to a 1 unit bet. The equation for this system is n+(L)n=b where (n) is the bet amount, (L) is the amount of loses since your last win, and (b) is the amount you bet. So the units go up 1,3,7,15,31,63...., the good thing about this is that if you have the capital to support the odds of losing before the next win you can win big and pretty quickly too, the bad thing about this is if you have a losing streak you can lose quick, especially at the beginning when you havent had the time to build up your bank, although the great thing about this is when you win you are not only regaining your loses your also gaining even more and make up the time that you have lost AND if you have a large bet out (which can get scary) if you hit a blackjack you win a very large amount. Today I was playing and got up to 31 unit bet, which was $155, rarely do i get up to that high of a bet, the draw was 2 Aces for me and a 6 for the dealer, so I split, got 2 Blackjacks and won $465, I know this is rare but it's just showing the good side of betting so high and using a negative betting sytem like this.


So here's what I was planning on doing playing $100 dollars with five dollars bets and cash out when I get up to $1100 and then go back on the table with $100 knowing that this system would have to fail 10 times before I am back to where I began, but first of course I have to win the $1000 which I have done numerous times. Right now without any actual mathmatical prove I seem to get up to that point about 50% of the time, this seems kind of odd, and actually since I've been playing real cards I actually have gotton up to that point 2 out of 3 times ending with $2100 with the $100 that I started out with.

My question to all of you is what do you think about this system, and can anyone give me real odds on what the chance is of getting up to $1100 from $100 with $5 units using the best odd hits accourding to these table stats: 6 deck, house hits on soft 17, blackjack pays 3:2?

You are describing Grand martingale, doulbe your previous loss plus one. In theory it works and you can't lose, but in reality: there are a couple problems you would need a huge bankroll like $50,000 playing $5units... That should last you a long time. And most casinos have limits on there bets, typical around $1000 where i play.. Once you hit this limit you would not be able to complete the martingale. It wouldnt take long to hit the $1000 limit. As for trying your idea of starting with $100 taking it to $1100.... That probably wont work because you will hit a streak of too many loses in a row on the way there and wipe out all your money. Bottom line is progressions dont work. BTW- after you split aces you dont get blackjacks again just even money.

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by PerkinsRyan

Well I came up with this new system (although I searched the web and someone has already come up with it, so it's not actually mine) and I was first playing on the computer with craps and won over a million from just $5,000, then I tried it with blackjack because the odds are closer down the middle than the craps that I was playing. I was winning pretty big for the most part, so then I decided to play on my own off the computer with a real deck (my roommates thought I was wierd for playing with myself). I started with $100 (fake of course) and now I'm up to over $2000. Here's the betting strategy...

Start out with a 1 unit bet, (in my case I was doing $5 at a time), if you win do another 1 unit bet, if you lose do a 3 unit bet, if you lose after that go to a 7 unit bet, if you win go back to a 1 unit bet. The equation for this system is n+(L)n=b where (n) is the bet amount, (L) is the amount of loses since your last win, and (b) is the amount you bet. So the units go up 1,3,7,15,31,63...., the good thing about this is that if you have the capital to support the odds of losing before the next win you can win big and pretty quickly too, the bad thing about this is if you have a losing streak you can lose quick, especially at the beginning when you havent had the time to build up your bank, although the great thing about this is when you win you are not only regaining your loses your also gaining even more and make up the time that you have lost AND if you have a large bet out (which can get scary) if you hit a blackjack you win a very large amount. Today I was playing and got up to 31 unit bet, which was $155, rarely do i get up to that high of a bet, the draw was 2 Aces for me and a 6 for the dealer, so I split, got 2 Blackjacks and won $465, I know this is rare but it's just showing the good side of betting so high and using a negative betting sytem like this.


So here's what I was planning on doing playing $100 dollars with five dollars bets and cash out when I get up to $1100 and then go back on the table with $100 knowing that this system would have to fail 10 times before I am back to where I began, but first of course I have to win the $1000 which I have done numerous times. Right now without any actual mathmatical prove I seem to get up to that point about 50% of the time, this seems kind of odd, and actually since I've been playing real cards I actually have gotton up to that point 2 out of 3 times ending with $2100 with the $100 that I started out with.

My question to all of you is what do you think about this system, and can anyone give me real odds on what the chance is of getting up to $1100 from $100 with $5 units using the best odd hits accourding to these table stats: 6 deck, house hits on soft 17, blackjack pays 3:2?

First tell me this - HOW DO YOU PLAY THE HANDS??? zg

[rookie789]

PerkinsRyan,

Pay atention to Cass's advice, it is correct. The reason casino's can beat any betting system you attempt long term is because of EV, house (game) odds and they have more toys (Money) than you to play with. There are basically 3ways to play blackjack not considering comp considerations which is another subject.

1) just have fun and consider lost dollars a recreational expense; 2) learn and play perfect basic strategy which will reduce your losses and extend your playing time; 3) become an accomplished Advantage Player counting cards, accomplished involves more than just a + and - count and requires a large BR to avoid RoR short term.

[PerkinsRyan]

I just play how I feel it should be played at that time, which for the most part is with the same shown on a strategy card

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by PerkinsRyan

My question to all of you is what do you think about this system, and can anyone give me real odds on what the chance is of getting up to $1100 from $100 with $5 units using the best odd hits accourding to these table stats: 6 deck, house hits on soft 17, blackjack pays 3:2?

Well, your system is not a winning one. You are raising your bets even though the casino still has the advantage, which will cause you to lose your money faster. On top of that you are not playing accurate basic strategy, which will increase the house edge.

I would estimate that you have less than a 2% chance of winning $1100 before going broke. That’s less than a 1 in 50 shot. Furthermore, if you play long enough then you will definitely go broke because the casino has the advantage. You are playing with a 100% risk of ruin. There is a very slight possibility that you will win a little money at first, but you will either lose all of your money at the start or in the end.

Unfortunately, that is the reality of this situation.

-Sonny-

[nc-tom]

Originally Posted by PerkinsRyan

I just play how I feel it should be played at that time, which for the most part is with the same shown on a strategy card

PR playing how you feel is what keeps casinos in business.No way you will ever have a big enough bank to win ,nor be allowed to play at high enough limits to find success.Your system will kill your bankroll.

[ColorMeUp]

This sounds good in theory since you can never lose (in your head anyway). The problem is blackjack has a lot of variance and there are a lot of times where you will lose a lot hands in a row, effectively wiping you out. The casinos have the advantage against someone playing this strategy since they have unlimited bankroll and table maximums in place. If you started at a $5 min table, the avg max bet in Vegas was around $2000. So on a losing streak, you would lose 5+15+35+75+155+315 or $600 on a losing streak of just 6 hands, which may not seem very likely to occur but it is. You would exceed that $2000 minimum with just a couple more hands. Heck, if you started with your $100, you wouldn't even be able to properly play the system after 3 consecutive losses.

The bottom line is, if you had a huge(read, HUGE) bankroll and good table maximums(read, practically unlimited) you would probably make money with your system for a little while until you caught the monster losing streak that would wipe you out.

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by ColorMeUp

The bottom line is, if you had a huge(read, HUGE) bankroll and good table maximums(read, practically unlimited) you would probably make money with your system for a little while until you caught the monster losing streak that would wipe you out.

And especially since he is CLUELESS as to how to play the hands!! zg

[JustEffinAround]

Originally Posted by PerkinsRyan

Well I came up with this new system (although I searched the web and someone has already come up with it, so it's not actually mine)

Originally Posted by Cass

You are describing Grand martingale, doulbe your previous loss plus one.

NO! This is my strategy! Hahah. I figured out a different version of this when I was 18, after losing a couple hundred bucks using a constant bet at the local Indian casino. There were two betting ranges there: $2-$200 tables and $20-$500 tables. I decided to start the bet at $2 and double after every loss. A win would recoup all my losses plus a $2 profit, and then I'd return to a $2 bet. If I lost the 7th bet of $128 I'd move to a $20-$500 table and bet $256.

I realized I might lose several hands in a row so the first time I tried the strategy I brought a large (for me at the time) bankroll of $300. At first it was working quite well, I started to build up a nice stack. But then I hit an 8-in-a-row losing streak and it was all gone. I was pissed as hell, but I wasn't ready to give up. So I pulled out another $400 and went right back (at around midnight). That time it worked. From that $400 I worked up to $1000 over about 4 hours. I cashed out my 10 black chips and drove home with a $300 profit and a huge smile on my face. But I knew I was playing with fire. I was burned the first time and got lucky the second. I decided not to **** around with it anymore.

But I've recently remembered my interest and so I've started thinking about it again. Here's how I figure the math. Let's say there's a 45% chance of winning any given hand, and a 50% chance of losing (I'm sure those numbers are very approximate). So for any randomly selected hand (using my strategy at those tables) there is a 45% chance of increasing your profit by $2 and a (0.5)^8 = 0.39% chance of losing $2 + $4 ... + $256 = $510 (chance that hand was the 8th loss that you can't recover from). So on average you will net ($2 * 0.45) - ($510 * 0.0039) = -$1.09 per hand. You might get lucky at first like I did, but the math says ultimately you'll lose.

I never knew this (MY!) strategy had a name before. Now I keep reading that all betting systems lose money. Well, I'm gonna see if I can't come up with a new one that proves that idea wrong .

Edit: corrected bad math