Backcounting + Flat betting

Hey guys, i haven't been doing this for a while but i wanna do this again.

I'm planning to backcount and wong in at TC + 3 and wong out at TC +1. My BR is $4000 and i'm planning to flat bet $40. I just don't see the point of a bet spread. If I'm only gonna play at TC +1 or higher, then it's just my edge*$40 right? Anyway, My game of choice is 6 decks, H17, DAS, No Surrender, Peek.

Can someone tell me my expected win rate and RoR? I just can't figure out how many hands i'll be able to squeeze in per hour backcounting.

Thanks.

I thought your bet was ment to be .77*advantage*bankroll but correct me if I'm wrong

I don't know what your win rate will be but I can tell you that wonging in and out that frequently will be difficult. First, there will be many times the count goes up, but the table will be full and you will miss out on the pos advantage. Second, you will be noticed hanging around the table through all the neg counts and only jumping in for the last two or three hands. If the store you will be at has several pits, then you may get away with it for a little while if you switch pits often, but if there is only one pit you will be noticed and maybe barred from MSE. Third, since you are going to only play a few hands at higher counts, $40 bets seem a bit miniscule. You might only play thre or four hands out of three or more shoes that will be dealt. Frankly, I'd be bored to death standing around that long waiting for a good pos count to just play a couple of hands and then wong out at the shuffle. But that's just me.

Give us the details on this game please.

So my friend and i are going to backcount different tables. Whoever has a high count will signal the other to come. Then one of us is going to flat bet $40 per hand. Our bankroll is $4000. I want to know my win rate per hour and my RoR. The only thing that's stopping me from calculating winrate is that i don't know how many hands i can expect to play per hour.

My win rate per hour should be: $40*1.5% edge*hands/hour.

And I have no idea how to calculate RoR.

Thanks guys.

1. You haven't told us anything.

...

Actually, that's pretty much it. Decks? Pen? Rules?

We can't help you without that.

I thought I mentioned it in the OP. Oh well, its 6 decks, H17, DAS, No Surrender, Peek

Waiting for a +3 TC to wong in is far too selective. Going 4.5 decks into the shoe, you'll only be coming into around 8% of the shoes you watch. Remember that whatever the TC is when you come in, that's what the TC will center itself around for the rest of the shoe, on average. And if you wong out at +1 TC, you'll average higher than +3 on all the hands you play, which will be very, very few.

Betting $40 under these conditions with a 4k B/R is way underbetting.

Hmm interesting. How much do you think i should bet? Or maybe i should just wong in at +2?

Renzy, Question about your reply on wonging high counts

I just finished my first reading of Bluebook today. I am totally impressed with your ability to impart understandable knowledge.

About your reply. Did I understand you correctly to say that if wonging into a game, whatever the count is at the time you enter will remain roughly the same, up or down a bit from that entry point for the rest of the shoe? Or, entering the shoe at what point, would the count tend to remain around the entry point. I didn't understand the 4 1/2 part of your statement. Would it be a safe assumption if a person wonged in at around the pivot point that he might expect to play the remainder of the shoe, if flat betting, without need to continue counting that shoe and do so with some assurance the count would remain at least high enough to support a flat bet? Or, is it highly advisable to continue counting after entering the shoe?