Ploppy Play House Edge

wwcd

Well-Known Member
#1
Hi, I've been checking out these forums for a while, but, I started playing blackjack in a casino just about 2 weeks ago. I find counting very interesting, but right now I'm playing BJ for fun and with almost perfect basic strategy (about 1-2 misses in 500 hands in my trainer sessions).

But in the last 2 weeks, after about 12 hours of total play, I've seen all sorts of people, of which the majority were -as called in this forum- ploppies.

I've seen many idiotic moves, but one of them last night was wow, as the guy stood on a 7! Yes, he stood on a 3 and 4. Dealer and his buddy reminded him, but his answer was "f*** it, I wanna stand".

What I wonder however is that, what could the actual HE be on these types of players? I know that there's no single ploppy style, but say when you miss BS 50% of the time, what would the HE be in that case? Does it move to 3-4% or 10-15%?

I also played some Let It Ride, and I found the players to be knowing what they're doing. It's not a game a ploppy can just jump in and understand the rules etc. So, although, initially I thought the casino edge on BJ was pretty poor compared to roulette's 5%+ and Let It Ride's 3%+, after having played BJ in real life, I think the edge might be much much better than the calculated <1% levels.

Any insights on whether this is the case, and BJ is actually one of the most profitable table games for the casino, when ironically, it has the best mathematical edge for the player?
 

1357111317

Well-Known Member
#2
I think the general accepted figure is that the average casino patron plays at about a 1.5-2 percent disadvantage.

As for your question about why its the most profitable table game I think it comes down to the fact that blackjack gets the most rounds per hour out of all table games and the fact that it is the most popular so people will play it more and wager more on it.
 

somtum

Well-Known Member
#3
Also, there's plenty of blackjack games with side bets that rake in extra cash.

My local casino offers a perfect pair side bet on most of the BJ games. I see about 70% of the people playing this side bet which has a house advantage of 3.37% on the 8D and 5.79% on the 6D.
 

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
#4
wwcd said:
I've seen many idiotic moves, but one of them last night was wow, as the guy stood on a 7! Yes, he stood on a 3 and 4. Dealer and his buddy reminded him, but his answer was "f*** it, I wanna stand".
And what often happens is these idiotic moves actually work to the players advantage for the hand in question (or they get convinced to hit and end up losing the hand they would have won playing by their own rules) and after that there's no convincing them to play it properly.
 

wwcd

Well-Known Member
#5
Some nicer dealers actually can't take these moves anymore and they just stop the game and give a quick briefing on not hitting stiffs against 4-5-6 :)

Although most dealers don't know perfect basic strategy, their genuine efforts on fixing some of the major idiotic moves are very nice. I've had this happen a couple of times when idiots kept hitting 15s, 16s left and right against any dealer up card.

By the way, I noticed that none of my BS moves got any dealer surprise as much as hitting A7 against 9-10-A. It's right there, on the BS book, yet I almost always got them double or triple checking whether I'm sure on that. I don't know why they are stuck on this very move, while they can grasp most of the BS moves.
 

bigplayer

Well-Known Member
#6
wwcd said:
Hi, I've been checking out these forums for a while, but, I started playing blackjack in a casino just about 2 weeks ago. I find counting very interesting, but right now I'm playing BJ for fun and with almost perfect basic strategy (about 1-2 misses in 500 hands in my trainer sessions).

But in the last 2 weeks, after about 12 hours of total play, I've seen all sorts of people, of which the majority were -as called in this forum- ploppies.

I've seen many idiotic moves, but one of them last night was wow, as the guy stood on a 7! Yes, he stood on a 3 and 4. Dealer and his buddy reminded him, but his answer was "f*** it, I wanna stand".

What I wonder however is that, what could the actual HE be on these types of players? I know that there's no single ploppy style, but say when you miss BS 50% of the time, what would the HE be in that case? Does it move to 3-4% or 10-15%?

I also played some Let It Ride, and I found the players to be knowing what they're doing. It's not a game a ploppy can just jump in and understand the rules etc. So, although, initially I thought the casino edge on BJ was pretty poor compared to roulette's 5%+ and Let It Ride's 3%+, after having played BJ in real life, I think the edge might be much much better than the calculated <1% levels.

Any insights on whether this is the case, and BJ is actually one of the most profitable table games for the casino, when ironically, it has the best mathematical edge for the player?
The typical player plays usually at a 1% worse disadvantage than the actual house edge that a perfect player would experience. I recall that in Lance Humble's "World's Greatest Blackjack Book" he estimated that a mimic the dealer strategy and no-bust strategy would have a 6% or 7% disadvantage (I don't recall the exact number).
 

Blue Efficacy

Well-Known Member
#7
wwcd said:
Some nicer dealers actually can't take these moves anymore and they just stop the game and give a quick briefing on not hitting stiffs against 4-5-6 :)

Although most dealers don't know perfect basic strategy, their genuine efforts on fixing some of the major idiotic moves are very nice. I've had this happen a couple of times when idiots kept hitting 15s, 16s left and right against any dealer up card.

By the way, I noticed that none of my BS moves got any dealer surprise as much as hitting A7 against 9-10-A. It's right there, on the BS book, yet I almost always got them double or triple checking whether I'm sure on that. I don't know why they are stuck on this very move, while they can grasp most of the BS moves.
I like the dealers that just let the players do what they want, doesn't slow down the game and it will make the poor players go broke more quickly.

It is a common myth that 18 is a decent hand and according to many soft 18 is the most misplayed hand, this is why dealers will often ask if you're sure you want to hit. I was practically the only person hitting soft 18 when I was down in Biloxi!

I had a dealer ask me 3 times if i was sure I wanted to hit my pair of sixes in a very lean deck in the shoe. I much prefer a dealer who just does what I say and doesn't try to sell me on a split even if it would normally be a good one! This dealer stopped questioning me anymore after it became apparent standing or splitting would have lost my bet! :laugh:
 

tribute

Well-Known Member
#8
Blue Efficacy said:
It is a common myth that 18 is a decent hand and according to many soft 18 is the most misplayed hand, this is why dealers will often ask if you're sure you want to hit. I was practically the only person hitting soft 18 when I was down in Biloxi!

:

I once placed chips to double down on my A7. To my surprise, the dealer turned to the pit and announced Player doubling on eighteen! I am not sure this was done to alert them to me being an AP or just to confirm to them my playing decision so I could not attempt to change it later.
 
#9
I also see a lot people not following the BS, I wonder if they have ever read it at all. Standing and not doubling on soft 17,18. Not doubling against 9,8 or even 7. The other players even question my style of play, and of course, most stupidly, hitting stiff hands. These are the times that you want the game to speed up and let them go broke, however, sometimes luck seems to be on their side.
 

Mr. T

Well-Known Member
#11
Yes hitting soft 18 and doubling soft 18 if allowed. Also hitting 16 vs 7.
Drive the other non BS players mad. Some times the majority at the table will give you a very difficult time.
We all have seen very horrible play in BJ. I thought the HE would be close to 10%. I see them literally throwing money at the casino. But Sonny who is smarter than me thinks it is only about 2 to 3%.
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#13
wwcd said:
Some nicer dealers actually can't take these moves anymore and they just stop the game and give a quick briefing on not hitting stiffs against 4-5-6 :)

Although most dealers don't know perfect basic strategy, their genuine efforts on fixing some of the major idiotic moves are very nice. I've had this happen a couple of times when idiots kept hitting 15s, 16s left and right against any dealer up card.

By the way, I noticed that none of my BS moves got any dealer surprise as much as hitting A7 against 9-10-A. It's right there, on the BS book, yet I almost always got them double or triple checking whether I'm sure on that. I don't know why they are stuck on this very move, while they can grasp most of the BS moves.
Most ploppies believe that 18 is a good hand, while actually, it is a losing hand. They also see that, oftentimes, someone hitting a soft 18 winds up spoiling his hand with a 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8.
 
#14
wwcd said:
Some nicer dealers actually can't take these moves anymore and they just stop the game and give a quick briefing on not hitting stiffs against 4-5-6 :)

Although most dealers don't know perfect basic strategy, their genuine efforts on fixing some of the major idiotic moves are very nice. I've had this happen a couple of times when idiots kept hitting 15s, 16s left and right against any dealer up card.

By the way, I noticed that none of my BS moves got any dealer surprise as much as hitting A7 against 9-10-A. It's right there, on the BS book, yet I almost always got them double or triple checking whether I'm sure on that. I don't know why they are stuck on this very move, while they can grasp most of the BS moves.
Years ago, when a Blackhawk casino had a game with early surrender ($5 max multi-action), I had a dealer completely incredulous that I was surrendering a 17 vs. an ace. This is correct BS for early surrender (which is extremely rare as it gives a BS player an edge off the top with nearly any rule set that doesn't involve a short payout for BJ).

I do think that hitting soft 18 is possibly the most counter-intuitive plays in basic strategy. Most people just don't realize how weak a hand 18 actually is against a dealer 9 10 or A, and hitting it often makes it worse, or makes no difference if you get a 10.
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#15
CORed said:
Years ago, when a Blackhawk casino had a game with early surrender ($5 max multi-action), I had a dealer completely incredulous that I was surrendering a 17 vs. an ace. This is correct BS for early surrender (which is extremely rare as it gives a BS player an edge off the top with nearly any rule set that doesn't involve a short payout for BJ).

I do think that hitting soft 18 is possibly the most counter-intuitive plays in basic strategy. Most people just don't realize how weak a hand 18 actually is against a dealer 9 10 or A, and hitting it often makes it worse, or makes no difference if you get a 10.
But if you hit it and get a ten, brother! do the ploppies go crazy! You took the dealer's bust card. Then when the dealer turns a 5 for eleven, then an ace and a ten -- bust! -- they either say, "Well, it could have been a bust card" or "Man, you saved the entire table!" Don't count on which one it will be, but usually they are grateful the dealer busted. When I hit a ten and the dealer hits a ten, also, I am quick to point out, "She would have caught a ten either way!" ;)
 

dacium

Well-Known Member
#16
1357111317 said:
I think the general accepted figure is that the average casino patron plays at about a 1.5-2 percent disadvantage.
I find that staggeringly unbelievable.

If you follow the two basic rules:
-Hit hard hands to 17 when deal is 7 or above.
-Dont hit hard hands when dealer is 6 or below.

The house edge in most games is about 2.5%.

99% of ploppies do not even play that well, and their splitting and doubling is just rubbish.

I would have to say I find it hard to beleive that most would pull in less than 5%.
 

dacium

Well-Known Member
#17
aslan said:
But if you hit it and get a ten, brother! do the ploppies go crazy! You took the dealer's bust card. Then when the dealer turns a 5 for eleven, then an ace and a ten -- bust! -- they either say, "Well, it could have been a bust card" or "Man, you saved the entire table!" Don't count on which one it will be, but usually they are grateful the dealer busted. When I hit a ten and the dealer hits a ten, also, I am quick to point out, "She would have caught a ten either way!" ;)
I take so much heat when I hit soft 18. The dealers are always "are you sure? are you sure? Its 18 sir, are you sure?" and the whole table groans like I am some sort of moron and all this always draws the bit bosses over. A player hitting soft 18 been playing for 5 hours and is winning? Might as well right counter all over my face.
 

paddywhack

Well-Known Member
#18
dacium said:
I take so much heat when I hit soft 18. The dealers are always "are you sure? are you sure? Its 18 sir, are you sure?" and the whole table groans like I am some sort of moron and all this always draws the bit bosses over. A player hitting soft 18 been playing for 5 hours and is winning? Might as well right counter all over my face.
Glad I don't play where you do.

Very few ploppies play that hand correctly but there are some where I frequently play that know it's the correct move. Now some of them know it's right but still don't hit it (don't want to ruin my 18). Others hit it. I've hardly ever heard anything from a dealer or a ploppy about hitting soft 18.

Now 14 vs 2, 3, 4 - well, that's a very different story :laugh::laugh:
 
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