Substantial hits to BR

Hey guys, just wondering if anyone could chime in.

Basically, I'm down 362 units from my highest, and 192 from my initial BR. In a total of 4 sessions, or 9 hours.

My game is 6D H17, DOA, DAS, RSA, 5/6 pen. No surrender.

I use Hi-Lo, I18, and have been practicing ST in the form of Cut off tracking, due to the highly simplistic shuffle techniques used. I run a spread of:
TC1> 1 unit
TC2 2x2 units
TC3 2x4 units
TC4 2x6 units
TC5 2x8 units
TC6 2x10 units

With an initial 7k BR.

Just more or less looking to see if someone can see anything glaringly wrong with this situation, other than my game I am forced to play. I'm not worried about my counting skills, I've been practicing for a substantial time, edging up on a year, and counting down a deck is around 17 seconds, without errors.

I don't know what you're actually asking or want in a response.

That's called variance?
Bad luck?


How many units is your bankroll. You mention betting in terms of units, then a dollar bankroll. We can't match it up

Sorry, 1400 unit BR.

And I'm not quite to sure what I am hoping for in response. More just almost needed to vent, and get back on the horse after feeling slaughtered.

I know it's a small sample size. It hurts, but it's what I signed up for when I decided to take on this challenge. If anything comes out of this, I hope at least it would be a new player reads this, and spends the time to fully learn the intricate details before getting his feet wet, and maybe preventing someone losing a good portion of their savings.

Okay.. so you lost 362 units in 9 hours.

Factoring your rules and spread.. Here's what I got..

Let's say hypothetically your total bankroll was 362 units.
Your ROR would be 36.19%

Dropping 362 units in 9 hours of play I have .231.. or a little less than a 1 in 500 chance.


If you were just playing 1 hand instead of 2 hands your ROR for a 362 unit bankroll is 32.76%

Dropping 362 units in 9 hours playing 1 hand.. I have .002 or a 1 in 50,000 chance.

This is based on 100 hands per hour of play...

Thank you for the response. One question though, I was under the impression spreading to 2 hands reduced RoR through co-variance?

yea, playing 2 hands is way better, the RoR goes way down because the only way to loose money is to loose both of them which happens way less oftain, much more oftain you break even by winning one and loosing one. its the greatest thing since sliced bread.

I am playing the exact same game you are playing, and I have a really similar spread, today in the span of 2 hours I lost about 300 units, **** happens though. just gota keep pushing through it, you have a bigger bankroll than me though (im only bankrolled for about 3.5k, but I know im playing with a high RoR and its ok with me)

I correspond by email with another player who has been experiencing similar events, major league hammerings. He also just recently added st'ing to his play.

My opinion which applies to you and my email buddy would be the same, drop the st'ing from your play because you're either using the info incorrectly, playing with too many other players, or not ready to handle the increased variance.

Remember this, you can cut 39 tens and 13 aces to the 1st deck and still be the unfortunate soul not to pull a snapper.

In practice you will find how much larger your variance becomes when your ST'ing especially when other players are getting those big ones.

JMO

BJC

Well, when I ran the sims.. 1 hand I used..

TC1> 1 unit
TC2 2 units
TC3 4 units
TC4 6 units
TC5 8 units
TC6 10 units

And 2 hands

TC1> 1 unit
TC2 2x2 units
TC3 2x4 units
TC4 2x6 units
TC5 2x8 units
TC6 2x10 units

And.. I didn't factor and kind of ST..

Yeah, the variance for 1 hand would be alot higher if I had doubled the amount into 1 hand.

With a 1 - 20 spread on 1 hand your ROR is about 4.67% losing 362 units in 9 hours.

Thank you all for the posts. BJCount, this is basically exactly what I was looking for when I made this post, some great advice. Thank you very much.

I agree with you about having to many people at the table, It is nearly impossible for me to get a table with one other person. I have to go at the wierdest hours for that.

I think I will drop the tracking until I can practice it until it's perfect. Any advice anyone has on proper ways to train tracking?

Thank you in advance,

Icedtea

Purchase CVShuffle

Finding a better game always helps. I recently had a chance to play at Soaring Eagle. Their games are easier to beat compared to the games I usually play. But I have to drive more.

I wish I was only down 362 units. My last 50 hours I've lost 520 units playing in incredible conditions. Be glad it's not worse.

100% wrong. I hope you're not putting a lot of money into blackjack with that level of knowledge. Given the same bankroll, your std dev per hour is substantially higher when playing 2 hands, which = much higher ror. You will win both of them and lose both of them just as often. What you said is no different than playing one hand and losing followed by a win. Playing two hands at once just makes you go through hands 2x as fast. Check your theories in CVData if you still don't think I'm right.

Also, learn how to spell "often".

If he is resizing his bets properly then the variance and RoR are lower when playing 2 hands.

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=3069

-Sonny-

True indeed, but I don't think that is the case for this guy...

Make sure you understand the stats man, playing 2x$100 when your betting ramp tells you to bet $100 is going to INCREASE variance.

Also with certain number of players on the table, there will be a fixed number of rounds (assuming no mid shoe entry or leavers).

So you would want to take up as many cards as possibly in an optimum format. This is documented in BJA, IIRC you should only play 1 box if you are heads up with the dealer, obviously just before the cut card with the TC still high i would attemp to play all the boxes .

1 box = 100% of you max bet , 2 box = 75% of your max bet /box 3 box = 57% of your max bet /box.

So don't play $100 in 2 box if your are only going to max bet 100 in one box.

Ming

I brought up this question a while ago, and no real conclusions were made. I am still convinced that the following is a better way to play. First of all, notice the difference between playing 1 hand and 2 hands in a heads up game. There is approximately a 2% increase in cash that you are able to put on the table, which is good. However, by playing 2 hands, you are able to increase the speed of the game substantially. Sure, your betting may be slightly less optimal, but for such a little cost, you could be increasing the speed of the game by 60%. Playing 1 hand heads up, lets say you play at 200 rounds per hour, producing 200 hands per hour. Playing 2 hands, you could be playing at a decreased 160 rounds per hour, which actually produces 320 hands per hour. I would take a 2% loss in per-hand-EV for a 60% increase in game speed any day

As for the fixed # of rounds, that usually applies only to single deck games, which usually utilizes Rule of 6 (6-n rounds to n players).