Too good to be true!

[Vanir]

Hi folks!

I am a novice in BJ. Got interested in the game. I have got trained by the BJ strategy trainer at the site and have downloaded a BJ software from another one. I have mastered the Basic Strategy at the 99% correct answers rate. My problem is that most of the time I win. Within a month I have won US$29K. What bothers me is either I am too lucky or smart (but I am not, for sure) or the PC programs have been designed especially to mock me in that believe and force me in the a real casino play. What do you think of that?

[zengrifter]

You've been lucky and OVERBETTING (ie, betting too large). And you won't have the advantage untill you master card-counting. zg

[Vanir]

What is "betting too large"? I play $10 bet game and never exceed $50 after double or split. And I make a point for myself never use negative progression. It turns devastating! Besides do you know a standard deviation for the $10 bet game?

[Vanir]

As regards to card counting, what do you think about OPP Count described at http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...ing_System.htm

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by Vanir

As regards to card counting, what do you think about OPP Count described at http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...ing_System.htm

Yes, your win is incredibly large and unrealistic. Perhaps the software you used is bad.

OPP is NOT worth the effort to learn - you should learn KO or HiLo or better. zg

[Vanir]

I agree it seems the software I pretty bad. It is good only for training BS. What HiLo do you suggest I or II. And what system is better? I know there are mush accurate systems that HiLo but they are too complicated.

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by Vanir

I agree it seems the software I pretty bad. It is good only for training BS. What HiLo do you suggest I or II. And what system is better? I know there are mush accurate systems that HiLo but they are too complicated.

I suggest KO. zg

[Mikeaber]

KO seems to be a pretty adequate system for a beginning counter. One thing to stress that oft times gets lost in the fog: Make sure you have an adequate bankroll to match your betting spreads.

I've tackled a casino 7 times now with KO using a 50 unit bankroll and a 1:10 spread (6-deck game.) I've pushed 4 times, won twice and lost once. The time I lost...I lost in the first shoe when the count was high and I had max bets out and lost each of those bets in addition to the minimum bets I'd lost when the count was bad! The point is, 50 units for a bankroll is not enough to feel comfortable that you are not going to lose it all before reaching a goal, even if that goal is breaking even!

Example, with a double deck game, a 100 unit bankroll betting a 1:5 spread yields somewhere aroung a 36% chance of losing the whole wad. That doesn't mean you have a 64% chance of winning. It means that 64% of the time, you'll walk away with at least 1 unit of your original bankroll!

I think maybe more beginning counters get discouraged because they are not aware of this factor than any other. They simply do not have the financial backing to give it a chance to work.

[ScottH]

Originally Posted by Mikeaber

KO seems to be a pretty adequate system for a beginning counter. One thing to stress that oft times gets lost in the fog: Make sure you have an adequate bankroll to match your betting spreads.

I've tackled a casino 7 times now with KO using a 50 unit bankroll and a 1:10 spread (6-deck game.) I've pushed 4 times, won twice and lost once. The time I lost...I lost in the first shoe when the count was high and I had max bets out and lost each of those bets in addition to the minimum bets I'd lost when the count was bad! The point is, 50 units for a bankroll is not enough to feel comfortable that you are not going to lose it all before reaching a goal, even if that goal is breaking even!

Example, with a double deck game, a 100 unit bankroll betting a 1:5 spread yields somewhere aroung a 36% chance of losing the whole wad. That doesn't mean you have a 64% chance of winning. It means that 64% of the time, you'll walk away with at least 1 unit of your original bankroll!

I think maybe more beginning counters get discouraged because they are not aware of this factor than any other. They simply do not have the financial backing to give it a chance to work.

Shouldn't you have more like 100 maximum bets for your bankroll? A 50 or 100 unit bankroll seems way too small to have any chance of success.

[E-town-guy]

My total BR is about 100 max bets. Mikeaber might have been referring to your session BR, the money you bring to the casino on a given day. But you never know with ol'Mike