Flat betting vs system?

[russellj93]

First let me re-instate that I am not a counter. Everything I read from the experts say that no system ever works no matter what. However, I have also read that you should have some sort of money management system. I have been using a 1-3-2-6 system for several months now and it appears to be pretty good even though I am way down. If I deviate from this or revert back to flat betting, I go down further. This system is based on you can win 4 hands in a row. If you bet $10 increments when you have reached 6 level your $60 bet is all casino money (in theory). So you have wagered $10 to win $120. You start over after level 6 or anytime you lose along the way. I bet in $5, $10, or $15 increments. My best session was using $15 increments and I wond $500 in less than 1 hour. Not that my BR has been depleted, I have to go back to the $5 level. I have played this hours and hours on the sage simulator and always come out way ahead of my two default computer playing partners that are flat betting. Also, in studying the stats after each session I have found that I lose many more hands than I have won. Yet the session profit is still very good. I attribute this to the progessive betting and also hitting a few BJ's and doubles along the way. Also, in looking a the stats for my "playing partners" they lost more games than they won but still have a profit. Here is an example of my last session of 200 hands played. Player 1 (computer flat bet of $10) up $120, 70 wins, 92 losses, 15 pushes, 18 dd wins, 1 dd loss, 1 dd push, 10 BJ wins with 1 push. Player 7 (computer flat bet of $10) up $95, 71 wins, 91 losses, 14 pushes, 13 dd wins, 2 dd losses, and 3 dd pushes, 12 BJ's all wins. Player 4 (yours truly betting the 1-3-2-6 system) up $450, 64 wins, 83 losses, 10 pushes, 19 dd wins and 10 dd losses, 4 dd pushes, 14 BJ's with no ties. The most I was ever down was $100 and my total high for the session was $495 (at least I know when to quit, I think). All the hands were played using my local casino rules, dealer hits s17, das allowed, 6-deck shoe. I hope all this means something to somebody as I am desparately crying out for help.
Russell

[Canceler]

Originally Posted by russellj93

Everything I read from the experts say that no system ever works no matter what.

You probably meant to say that no system always works. Card counting works, but that doesn't mean you won't have losing sessions, or losing years.

Originally Posted by russellj93

your $60 bet is all casino money (in theory)

Actually, it is your money, since you won it. I know it's tempting to think of your progression as self-financing, and it may be, until you have to split or double down. Then it's not.

You do know that over time progressions lose money at the rate of the house edge if you play perfect basic strategy, right? The fluctuations in your bankroll will be larger compared to flat betting.

[russellj93]

Well, no. I did not know that. Thanks for your info. I am not sure I understand the logic of that. However, I have noticed during simulator play that having my computer playing partners bet $5 flat and me betting the 1-3-2-6 system, that my parnters total amount wagered comes to around $1200 with 200 hands played anm my progressive system ends having $7000-$8000 wagered. Would this explain the house advantage? The system is hard for me to abandon because for the most part it has worked. Every time I have deviated from it, I have lost. Thanks for your input. Is the general consenus that playing BS that I should stick to flat betting?

[Mikeaber]

Originally Posted by russellj93

Is the general consenus that playing BS that I should stick to flat betting?

Hmmmm...I don't know if I'd go that far! But the gentleman who answered you is correct....using a progression will not change the house advantage. That advantage is NOT based on the amount you bet so much as the rules played at your particular table. Over the long haul, you will loose enough of your big bets to offset any wins you have on the smaller ones (or vise-versa).

What I'm trying to say is that over thousands of hands, playing basic strategy with no advantage from "counting," You will loose whatever the house advantage happens to be. On a 6-deck shoe DAS, DOA, H17...etc....the house advantage is somewhere up around .60%. That simply means that if you wager a total of $100,000 (total amount bet) you will probably loose $100,000*.0060 or $600. It doesn't matter whether you bet $5 a hand or $5000 a hand. The more hands you play, the more likely it is that you will loose that .60%.

But if progressions seem to work for you now, use them. Just be prepared for the PROBABILITY that eventually, you are going to take a big hit. Hopefully, in sessions prior to the big loss, you will have won enough so that it doesn't hurt as bad.

[colin563]

Here's a new analysis program simulator Blackjack Analysis Program: http://www.blackjackanalysis.com/ that you might like to check out, it can run various statistical data and mathematical formulas, the program analyzes, interprets, and creates custom-tailored betting strategys, thinking of geting this in the next couple of weeks, though I'm still pushing on learning the Kiss III count, take care and be lucky

Cheers

Colin

( BTW I nothing to do, nor am I affiliated with the author or the site and it is not a affiliate link )

[Canceler]

Mikeaber: You said everything that needed to be said, and saved me a bunch of typing. Thanks!

colin563: The money you're planning to spend on the Blackjack Analyzer program would probably serve you better by being taken to the casino.

[Mikeaber]

Originally Posted by Canceler

Mikeaber: You said everything that needed to be said, and saved me a bunch of typing. Thanks!

colin563: The money you're planning to spend on the Blackjack Analyzer program would probably serve you better by being taken to the casino.

Actually, I was wrong. I said that on a .60% house advantage against $100,000 bet, you would loose $6,000. I slipped a decimal. That should be $600.00. I thought $6000 seemed a bit high <LOL>

In another topic and thread (General/Betting-Strategies) I posted a novel about a method I use for managing losses. It is NOT a progression nor in any way designed to enhance your wins or decrease your losses on a per hand basis.

It is designed to send up "flags" whenever you are in a downward spiral no matter whether it is a fast one or one that is grinding you down. You might take a look and see if it might suit your style of play. Truely, it is designed for a very conservative player who wants to stretch his bankroll for as long as possible.

[Tree DA]

Originally Posted by russellj93

Well, no. I did not know that. Thanks for your info. I am not sure I understand the logic of that.

The expected value doesn't change but the variance increases quite a bit. Therefore with your progressive system you have a greater chance of winning more but also a greater chance of ruin.