Statistical value of surrender card

#1
Hey guys I was wondering if one of you geniuses could run the math on this one. I need to know what the statistical value of a surrender card would be in Spanish 21 with a max bet of 200 and no second double down. Also the match the dealer bonus is not included in the surrender. Let me know if I'm missing any details.
Thanks.
 

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
#2
Your query re: “the statistical value of a surrender card“ needs to be re-written.

It makes no sense as written. What is a “surrender card

Be aware that there is but ONE Basic Strategy surrender in Span21, i.e. Hard 17 vs. Ace.
 
#3
There are promotions in which you can earn what is called a surrender card. Its a card that they give you that you can use to surrender your whole bet after the cards are delt and before the dealer checks the hole card. Does that make sense?

Thanks
 

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
#4
“Surrender Card”

Yes, thanx. it is now understandable.

In Spanish21 any TWO card holding may be (late) surrendered;
also this holds true for any multi-card holding resulting from a DOUBLE.

This card turns the game into an EARLY SURRENDER game.

Ergo, this Surrender Card is a boon when surrendering a STIFF hand (ONLY) against an ACE.

Naturally, you would prefer surrendering a bad hand at your MAX bet.

PRESUMING that you are a Basic Strategy player, there is only one Basic Strategy
play that calls for a 2 card LATE surrender. That of a Hard 17 vs. Ace.
There are no Basic Strategy EARLY surrender plays — as the rule does not exist anywhere.
I believe (but am not completely sure) that your best EARLY surrender ought to be the same 17
versus the dealer ACE.

An issue here is that IF this is a H17 game, the dealer‘s Ace is enhanced in value.
In a S17 game, your HARD 17 will PUSH against the dealer’s SOFT 17, and that is miles better than surrendering.
In both the S17 and the H17 game, the Face Card will pop up for the dealer’s ACE 25% of the time in Spanish21 !

ANY other use of the Surrender Card will cost YOU money.

IF you are counting Cards then this matter is rather different.
with the amount of the wager on the bet facing the dealer’s ACE an issue

You save rather little (as a % of your money at risk), [even at your
Max Bet with a high True Count, perhaps > 3+ % of the wager.]

½ of a MAX bet saved is better than nothing, as it serves to reduce your variance;
and that is exceedingly important for the novice card counter with an anemic bankroll.

NOTE: IF you are a Basic Strategist, then realizing that his card is of little
value to you, just sell it to someone who bets at a higher level than you do.
 
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