Why am I getting my arse kicked? (Long)

[jimbiggs]

I have been playing six and eight deck shoes and doing pretty well. One thing that I noticed is that when surrender is offered I make quite a bit more money. Wonging in at +1 w/surrender I was making about $30-$40 per hour most sessions.

When I bought BJRM I learned that single and double deck games are beatable with less of a bankroll and a smaller spread. So I thought this was great, because my bankroll is small anyways. So I decided to give these games a try. So here are the three games offered in a certain casino where I like to play. Personally, I think the 6D shoe may be a better game than the DD. How do I find out which game is better? Should I go by the DI on BJRM?

1D 73% pen. H17 D10 nDAS no sur.
2D 70% pen. S17 D10 nDAS no sur.
6D 67% pen. S17 DOA DAS Late sur.

And there is no heat whatsoever in this casino although I think they're starting to watch me a little closer. I have been playing a lot of hours here and spreading 1 - 8 on single and double deck and 1 - 16 on six deck shoes.

The first time I tried single deck, I played anytime that the table had two other players or less. I was winning at single deck! When the table got crowded, I'd go wong shoe games. I was losing at shoe games. When I left I had won about $600 playing single deck and lost about $250 playing shoes.

The second time at single deck and shoes I won about $500.

Then I decided to try the DD game. The next visit I played only single and double deck tables. At one point I was up $800 playing mostly single deck. The table got crowded, so I switched to DD. At the end of the night I was down $10.

The next visit I played mostly DD and some single deck. I lost about $1500. I was able to win back $700 playing shoe games.

So I don't feel like my single and double deck play has been very successful. I especially feel like DD is kicking my arse. So BJRM is doing the math for me, although it doesn't factor in that the single and double decks are D10 only. The math says I should be winning, but I'm not.

Is there anything I can do to improve my game? It just seems like everytime I put out a big bet, I lose. Is this just a run of bad luck? My BR is down from $3800 to $1500. I don't think it can handle much more bad luck.

I'm trying to figure out the weak points in my game. One thing I'm having trouble with is converting the Running Count to True count. Is there an easy way to do this?

The other thing is, I'm using Stanford Wong's six deck indices for single and double deck. I'm going to start memorizing his indices for SD, which are a little different than six deck. But what do I use for DD?

Any help or advice would be appreciated.

[zengrifter]

BJRM doesn't factor in D10-11 only? I thought it could. You need to up your TC betting by at least an extra +1. Aside from that, keep in mind that even a month of steady play at just one of those games is NOT the longrun and individual results will vary drastically. Your results thus far are not statistically meaningful.

But do get a handle on the TC betting for those D10-11 games in any event.

Oh, and another thing. We have our biggest losses in the games that offer the biggest EV. This may sound paradoxical, but its due to the fact that higher EV games, like deep 1D, allow for higher frequency of big bets per 100 hands. During periods where anamolous percentage of big bets are being lost we book bigger losses resultantly. The remedy? Keep on playing! zg

Ps - You may be gaining undue scrutiny at the handheld games. I often find that I get the biggest scrutiny when LOSING in handheld games!

[Cass]

Originally Posted by jimbiggs

I have been playing six and eight deck shoes and doing pretty well. One thing that I noticed is that when surrender is offered I make quite a bit more money. Wonging in at +1 w/surrender I was making about $30-$40 per hour most sessions.

When I bought BJRM I learned that single and double deck games are beatable with less of a bankroll and a smaller spread. So I thought this was great, because my bankroll is small anyways. So I decided to give these games a try. So here are the three games offered in a certain casino where I like to play. Personally, I think the 6D shoe may be a better game than the DD. How do I find out which game is better? Should I go by the DI on BJRM?

1D 73% pen. H17 D10 nDAS no sur.
2D 70% pen. S17 D10 nDAS no sur.
6D 67% pen. S17 DOA DAS Late sur.

And there is no heat whatsoever in this casino although I think they're starting to watch me a little closer. I have been playing a lot of hours here and spreading 1 - 8 on single and double deck and 1 - 16 on six deck shoes.

The first time I tried single deck, I played anytime that the table had two other players or less. I was winning at single deck! When the table got crowded, I'd go wong shoe games. I was losing at shoe games. When I left I had won about $600 playing single deck and lost about $250 playing shoes.

The second time at single deck and shoes I won about $500.

Then I decided to try the DD game. The next visit I played only single and double deck tables. At one point I was up $800 playing mostly single deck. The table got crowded, so I switched to DD. At the end of the night I was down $10.

The next visit I played mostly DD and some single deck. I lost about $1500. I was able to win back $700 playing shoe games.

So I don't feel like my single and double deck play has been very successful. I especially feel like DD is kicking my arse. So BJRM is doing the math for me, although it doesn't factor in that the single and double decks are D10 only. The math says I should be winning, but I'm not.

Is there anything I can do to improve my game? It just seems like everytime I put out a big bet, I lose. Is this just a run of bad luck? My BR is down from $3800 to $1500. I don't think it can handle much more bad luck.

I'm trying to figure out the weak points in my game. One thing I'm having trouble with is converting the Running Count to True count. Is there an easy way to do this?

The other thing is, I'm using Stanford Wong's six deck indices for single and double deck. I'm going to start memorizing his indices for SD, which are a little different than six deck. But what do I use for DD?

Any help or advice would be appreciated.

From what you said of each games rules and pen the single and DD games are MUCH better. You are talking about a few sessions going up and down. Ive played over 60 hours in the llast month and i am only even. This is playing almost exclusively good double deck games. I've had two sessions i lost more than $3000! but i had two session i've won over $4000! I seem to be on a roller coaster of losing most my BR then winning it all back just to lose it again over the next few sessions. You and i have both had bad luck, adn i remain confident that my winning sessions will soon start outweighing my losing sessions..... BTW- I would reduce your bet spreads once you start winning i predict you will be kicked out...

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by Cass

I seem to be on a roller coaster of losing most my BR then winning it all back just to lose it again over the next few sessions.

Sounds like OVER-BETTING! zg

[Cass]

Originally Posted by zengrifter

Sounds like OVER-BETTING! zg

You are right but i guess im refering to my "virtual BR" My lifetime br is probably 40-60k and i should have that by the end of the summer...after i sell a house right now i just have about 10k at my disposal.

[E-town-guy]

If you have trouble converting the RC to the TC you can use a different counting system like the Red7 or KO

[jetace]

Originally Posted by E-town-guy

If you have trouble converting the RC to the TC you can use a different counting system like the Red7 or KO

If you have the option of single deck games, true count shouldn't be much of an issue. Just multiply your running count by 2 at the 1/2 deck level and by 4 when a quarter deck remains.
For more accuracy multiply times 4/3 when 3 quarters of a deck is left.
i.e. RC = +3, (+3 * 4/3) = +4 = TC

If I had the option, I'd play only single deck, don't have to think as much for conversion, and the initial EV is better than DD or 6D with the rules you mentioned.

[golfnut101]

this might be a little off track, but do the authors of this particular thread think that KO preferred would achieve same results as what they are hoping for with the current system they are using ?

thnx

[jimbiggs]

Wow. Thanks guys.

So these big swings are normal and in the long run, I should come out on top.

ZG, when you say up your bets by +1, do you mean instead of placing a max bet at +5, I should place my max bet at +6 for example?

The BRJM doesn't factor in the D10. Maybe the older version was different? Another thing is the only count system it has available is hi/low. Is there another software out there that can take the D10 into account?

I can see that I will need to work on my on the spot multiplying and dividing.

As far as KO goes, I have read the book and I do plan on using it in certain circumstances once I have enough practice with it.

I think I'll take a break for a while and practice at home until I feel more confident about my skills.

Thanks for all the advice and help.

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by jimbiggs

So these big swings are normal and in the long run, I should come out on top.

yES, IF YOU DON'T GO BROKE DUE TO OVER-BETTING!

Yes +6 instead of +5 and so forth. But is different for different #decks. zg