if 50% chance the Ace will come in the next four hand..
- Thread starter beyondbj
- Start date
ace tracking
beyond....I give you a better answer and tell you what I do since 2 years.
first, Ihate flux, for this I only bet one spot and try my best to predict
the ace to this spot.
Try, that there are played at least 4 spots , from you (min. bets) ore others, that the dealer doesn't get the ace.
My biggest negative flux over this time had been 14 units.
But I would bet 1/5 Kelly.
I have an advantage at my home casino of 8%, so my bankroll are 60 units.
Be very busy and not lazy and write down all your results, the gaps between
the keyes and the target card.
Make statistics over months better years.
hope this helps E.H.
beyond....I give you a better answer and tell you what I do since 2 years.
first, Ihate flux, for this I only bet one spot and try my best to predict
the ace to this spot.
Try, that there are played at least 4 spots , from you (min. bets) ore others, that the dealer doesn't get the ace.
My biggest negative flux over this time had been 14 units.
But I would bet 1/5 Kelly.
I have an advantage at my home casino of 8%, so my bankroll are 60 units.
Be very busy and not lazy and write down all your results, the gaps between
the keyes and the target card.
Make statistics over months better years.
hope this helps E.H.
i dont quite understand
u mean u remember two key cards
then if four player no ace in the last round after the kc shown
then u will buy larger next hand
that means your suffle is at least three times right?
u think u can get 8% return since u will get an ace for 1/6-1/7?
how about my casino only shuffle two times
u mean u remember two key cards
then if four player no ace in the last round after the kc shown
then u will buy larger next hand
that means your suffle is at least three times right?
u think u can get 8% return since u will get an ace for 1/6-1/7?
how about my casino only shuffle two times
There are so many variable factors that go into this, that it's very difficult to give an EXACT answer to the question without writing a BOOK on the subject; but I'll do my best to give you general answers. Also; your English grammar is a bit confusing, so please forgive me for any misunderstanding on my part.
Strictly speaking; if there's a 50% chance that the ace is coming in the next four cards, that means that EACH of the next four hands has a 12.5% advantage, MINUS the inherent DISADVANTAGE for the 3 out of 4 times that the ace DOESN'T hit that hand, AND minus the disadvantage for all 4 hands when the ace hits the DEALER'S hand. It's YOUR duty to be able to quickly figure these odds for each individual situation; while AT the table. The best (and possibly ONLY) way to develop this skill is through experience, which is why El Hombre is SPOT ON with his suggestion that you keep perfect records of all your bets.
The first thing that you'll discover is that; in a real life situation, there is never going to be an EQUAL chance of the ace falling on each hand. For example; it might go something like this: The ace will fall on the first hand 20% of the time, on the second hand 15%, on the third hand 10%, fourth hand 5%,the dealer will get it maybe 5% of the time; and it won't show up at ALL 45% of the time. Again; depending upon the shuffle, your skill level, and other factors; YOU will have to make your best estimate of these odds at the time you make your bet.
I promised not to write a book, so I'll stop right here & cut to the chase:
In the situation you've described, I would advise you to bet no more than 6-8% of your BR PER spot. As your skill level goes up, you will be able to increase this somewhat.
In answer to your second question; if the ace doesn't come, the chance of the dealer getting it is usually LESS, as the chance of each subsequent hand getting it usually goes in descending order.
Feel free to ask any follow-up questions. SOMEONE on this board will be able to give satisfactory answers to anything on this subject. And don't forget SleightOf-Hands' advice: Take much of EHs' advice with a grain of salt.
Strictly speaking; if there's a 50% chance that the ace is coming in the next four cards, that means that EACH of the next four hands has a 12.5% advantage, MINUS the inherent DISADVANTAGE for the 3 out of 4 times that the ace DOESN'T hit that hand, AND minus the disadvantage for all 4 hands when the ace hits the DEALER'S hand. It's YOUR duty to be able to quickly figure these odds for each individual situation; while AT the table. The best (and possibly ONLY) way to develop this skill is through experience, which is why El Hombre is SPOT ON with his suggestion that you keep perfect records of all your bets.
The first thing that you'll discover is that; in a real life situation, there is never going to be an EQUAL chance of the ace falling on each hand. For example; it might go something like this: The ace will fall on the first hand 20% of the time, on the second hand 15%, on the third hand 10%, fourth hand 5%,the dealer will get it maybe 5% of the time; and it won't show up at ALL 45% of the time. Again; depending upon the shuffle, your skill level, and other factors; YOU will have to make your best estimate of these odds at the time you make your bet.
I promised not to write a book, so I'll stop right here & cut to the chase:
In the situation you've described, I would advise you to bet no more than 6-8% of your BR PER spot. As your skill level goes up, you will be able to increase this somewhat.
In answer to your second question; if the ace doesn't come, the chance of the dealer getting it is usually LESS, as the chance of each subsequent hand getting it usually goes in descending order.
Feel free to ask any follow-up questions. SOMEONE on this board will be able to give satisfactory answers to anything on this subject. And don't forget SleightOf-Hands' advice: Take much of EHs' advice with a grain of salt.
ace sequencing
Sleigh------- what are you doing ? counting or sequenzing ?
I am sequenzing nearly every day ,
OK successful sequenzing depends on the sh.... , on an open board
I won't talk about that.
from what beyondbj sayed he has a small advantage, but to bet 8% on every 4 hands is much to much
Ask Kim Lee , his answer would be about more than 100 units are necessary
and he should bet only 1 unit.
OK if beyond doesn't fear the flux he could bet the first two spots, but there
must be someone who plays Basic at the second spot.
Eh.
SleightOfHand said:
IIRC, EH has been called out for giving out bad information on a previous post, so take his advice with a shaker of salt. But then again, maybe I'm wrong about him 
His response doesn't sound completely FOS
His response doesn't sound completely FOS
I am sequenzing nearly every day ,
OK successful sequenzing depends on the sh.... , on an open board
I won't talk about that.
from what beyondbj sayed he has a small advantage, but to bet 8% on every 4 hands is much to much
Ask Kim Lee , his answer would be about more than 100 units are necessary
and he should bet only 1 unit.
OK if beyond doesn't fear the flux he could bet the first two spots, but there
must be someone who plays Basic at the second spot.
Eh.