Hello and a request for critique.

S

Staiduk

New Member
#1
#1
Hello! First post here. I'd like to thank folks ahead of time for excellent insight and advice into this teriffic game I've already gleaned, and I'm looking forward to learning more.
A bit about me - I'm strictly a recreational player, but extremely competetive; which means I want to win, period. The idea of losing money for fun seems odd to me. That said; I know damn well of course that's part of the game (before anyone points that out. ;) )

Anyway, I have a betting (or money management) strategy of sorts which works to a small degree, and I was hoping you'd help me refine it a bit. Or a lot, whichever. Here it is: the Dave's Grind! (heh heh heh)

I start with a normal float of $300. Like I said, definitely small potatoes. If the float gets used up, that's it; day's over. I play until I hit double float. ($600). At this point, I pull the original float back and don't use it iny more; and play with profit. With the new $300, it starts over again - every time I double float, I pull float back. The idea is that if I win, profit goes up but if I lose; I only drop down a certain amount before backing away from the table, leaving me with whatever chips are in my pocket.
Best guess; I make my original double float a bit over half the time - say 6 or 6.5 times out of ten.

Now for the betting strategy - such as it is, and it's shaky as hell. ;) With$300 float, I make my first bet at $30. (Table I play on is $10/$300, with an infinite shoe shuffler, or whatever you call it.) If the bet wins, I hold until it loses, wherupon I drop it to $20. If it loses, I drop it again to $10. It stays at 10 until I win, or if I lose 4 consecutive hands. If that happens, I raise it to $20, then $40, on the idea that the odds start favouring a win after a while. Likewise, if I win 4 consecutive, I drop the bets the same measure, same reason.

Now, each $300 is looked at as a block, plus whatever profit is there before the next 300. If I drop below $220, I drop the max bet to $20 until I get over $200. If it drops to $110, max bet is $10.

Whoa - I'm looking at this, and while I'm doing it it seems straightforward, but typing it is real messy. Let's see if I can put it into short form.

Block: $300
Win: Block X 2, pull block back. Repeat for each block.
Lose playing block: game over.

Max bet:
10-110 = $10
120-220 = $20
230 - 300+ = $30
450 - 600 = $40

Bet increase/decrease:
Win hand: +1 (to max)
Lose hand: -1
Win 4 consecutive: Halve bet
Lose 4 consecutive: Double bet
(In both cases, max bet per block rules apply.)

There, I hope that's clearer. :)

Anyway, I was hoping you fine folks could rip into that betting strategy and let me know how terribly inefficient it is; and suggest pointers for improving.
Math ain't a strong suit for an old soldier like me; so whatever it is its got to be simple. :D

BTW: Max win so far with this has been $2800 on the day. Average winning day is around $1000, which happens around 50%.

Cheers, and thanks.

Dave
 
S

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
Staiduk said:
Hello! First post here. I'd like to thank folks ahead of time for excellent insight and advice into this teriffic game I've already gleaned, and I'm looking forward to learning more.
A bit about me - I'm strictly a recreational player, but extremely competetive; which means I want to win, period. The idea of losing money for fun seems odd to me. That said; I know damn well of course that's part of the game (before anyone points that out. ;) )

Anyway, I have a betting (or money management) strategy of sorts which works to a small degree, and I was hoping you'd help me refine it a bit. Or a lot, whichever. Here it is: the Dave's Grind! (heh heh heh)

I start with a normal float of $300. Like I said, definitely small potatoes. If the float gets used up, that's it; day's over. I play until I hit double float. ($600). At this point, I pull the original float back and don't use it iny more; and play with profit. With the new $300, it starts over again - every time I double float, I pull float back. The idea is that if I win, profit goes up but if I lose; I only drop down a certain amount before backing away from the table, leaving me with whatever chips are in my pocket.
Best guess; I make my original double float a bit over half the time - say 6 or 6.5 times out of ten.

Now for the betting strategy - such as it is, and it's shaky as hell. ;) With$300 float, I make my first bet at $30. (Table I play on is $10/$300, with an infinite shoe shuffler, or whatever you call it.) If the bet wins, I hold until it loses, wherupon I drop it to $20. If it loses, I drop it again to $10. It stays at 10 until I win, or if I lose 4 consecutive hands. If that happens, I raise it to $20, then $40, on the idea that the odds start favouring a win after a while. Likewise, if I win 4 consecutive, I drop the bets the same measure, same reason.

Now, each $300 is looked at as a block, plus whatever profit is there before the next 300. If I drop below $220, I drop the max bet to $20 until I get over $200. If it drops to $110, max bet is $10.

Whoa - I'm looking at this, and while I'm doing it it seems straightforward, but typing it is real messy. Let's see if I can put it into short form.

Block: $300
Win: Block X 2, pull block back. Repeat for each block.
Lose playing block: game over.

Max bet:
10-110 = $10
120-220 = $20
230 - 300+ = $30
450 - 600 = $40

Bet increase/decrease:
Win hand: +1 (to max)
Lose hand: -1
Win 4 consecutive: Halve bet
Lose 4 consecutive: Double bet
(In both cases, max bet per block rules apply.)

There, I hope that's clearer. :)

Anyway, I was hoping you fine folks could rip into that betting strategy and let me know how terribly inefficient it is; and suggest pointers for improving.
Math ain't a strong suit for an old soldier like me; so whatever it is its got to be simple. :D

BTW: Max win so far with this has been $2800 on the day. Average winning day is around $1000, which happens around 50%.

Cheers, and thanks.

Dave
Click to expand...
There is no betting strategy that can overcome the house edge. So if you aren't going to count cards then your best strategy will be to bet the table minimum. Increasing your bet only applies more money to the house edge, so in the long run, by using a betting strategy, you are only losing more money.

So if losing money for fun seems odd to you, learn how to count!
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
Hi Dave! Welcome to the board. Unfortunately, I have some very bad news for you…:(

Staiduk said:
The idea of losing money for fun seems odd to me. That said; I know damn well of course that's part of the game (before anyone points that out. ;) )
Click to expand...
You’re right there. Even the best full-time players have losing streaks that can last for months at a time. However, losing money is going to be a big part of your strategy as we’ll soon see…

Staiduk said:
Anyway, I have a betting (or money management) strategy of sorts which works to a small degree…Here it is: the Dave's Grind! (heh heh heh)
Click to expand...
Actually, it’s just a progression system. Progression systems are not winning systems. They may redistribute your winning and losing sessions but they will not overcome the house edge. You will still lose the same amount as every other player at the table.

A progression system may give you more frequent winning sessions followed by a huge losing session, or vise versa, but the house will still get their 0.5% of your money (assuming you play flawless basic strategy, otherwise they will get more).

Staiduk said:
Best guess; I make my original double float a bit over half the time - say 6 or 6.5 times out of ten.
Click to expand...
Have you been keeping records of your play? How long have you been using this system? How much have you won/lost? I think your estimate above sounds a little optimistic. You have been very lucky if you are winning 60% of your sessions. That sort of luck will not last forever. The house will eventually get their money back unless you can learn a better system.

Staiduk said:
(Table I play on is $10/$300, with an infinite shoe shuffler, or whatever you call it.)
Click to expand...
The Continuous Shuffle Machines (CSMs) are evil.:devil: They are constantly shuffling the used cards back into the shoe so you are always playing from a full shoe. That means that the house ALWAYS has the advantage. Instead of having the advantage fluctuate between the player and casino as certain cards are removed (and usually not immediately reshuffled), the house will ALWAYS have the advantage over you. These machines cannot be beaten by standard techniques, and certainly not by playing basic strategy alone.

Staiduk said:
…if I lose 4 consecutive hands. If that happens, I raise it to $20, then $40, on the idea that the odds start favouring a win after a while. Likewise, if I win 4 consecutive, I drop the bets the same measure, same reason.
Click to expand...
That is just superstitious. There will be times when you frequently lose 12 hands in a row. There is no way to avoid that. Four hands is just an arbitrary number that is nowhere near statistical significance. By raising your bet after a loss you are just going to lose more money in the long run.

Staiduk said:
Anyway, I was hoping you fine folks could rip into that betting strategy and let me know how terribly inefficient it is; and suggest pointers for improving.
Click to expand...
Well, the good news is that it is not inefficient at all! You will be losing at the same rate as everyone else (assuming proper play). Your system is no worse than someone flat betting $30 on every hand. The bad news is that it is not any better either. You should not expect to win money using this system.

-Sonny-
 
Mikeaber

Mikeaber

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
Dave

Believe me, I understand (I think) why you play the way you do. Until recently, I played nothing but BS. Only I never fell prey to the lure of progressive betting. I played "for the fun" of it also. As near as I have been able to determine, folks play progressions (for the fun of it) so they can get that adrenalin rush when they have larger than normal bets on the table. I guess there is nothing wrong with that other than the fact that you have no logical basis, or at least no mathematical basis, for increasing your bets other than the general probabilities that you are likely not to win or lose "x" number of hands in a row.

But, if the adrenalin rush is what you are after, why not get it by putting money on the table when you do have the odds in your favor? You may already know BS for all the games you play. That's a huge step in the right direction. But I suggest that you take up a simple counting system like Hi-Lo or KO or Red-7's. They are not that difficult to master to the point that you can utilize them at the tables. Believe me, you'll get that adrenalin rush when you watch the deck go from negative to positive and anticipate having an advantage when you place those larger bets!

And, it is an even greater level of satisfaction you'll achieve when you come out ahead more often than behind when the chips have finished falling.

As a rookie counter, I can say that I'll never be able to sit at a table and not count whenever I play this game of Blackjack!
 
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