Kelly Criterion and the effect of TC on house edge

#1
Hi all,

I only have the demo version of the CVData program, and in the intro it says the decks are altered so there's obviously no point in using the program for the answer to my question if this is true, so I would appreciate it if you guys could help me.

I play regularly at Crown Casino, Melbourne. The rules are:
- 8 Decks
- Double down on Hard hands 9, 10, 11 only
- Double down after split
- Dealer hits soft 17
- No hole card dealt
- Resplit pairs (Not aces)
- No surrender

My first question is:
1. What is the player's advantage at True counts of 0-5?
qfit.com's calculator says the player's advantage is -0.821 at TC of 0. Is this true?

Using this information, I believe we can use these numbers in the Kelly rule, as I'm trying to find the best betting amount at each of these TCs.

Thanks for your replies...
 
#2
Greetings from Sydney! I guess I can't help you out on this one since I do not have a simulator either, but i'd like to ask an off topic question... does BJ tables in Crown use CSM? if not, what are the penetration like? If the game is decent i'll have a trip there later on.:laugh:
 

NightStalker

Well-Known Member
#3
yes

If qfit calc says so, then it must be correct. You may verify it on wizard's Blackjack House Edge Calculator..
With every true count, player advantage increases. As a rough estimate, you may assume that every TC increases advantage by 0.5%

Say off the top, player's edge at 0 is -0.6
+1=-0.1
+2=0.6
+3=1.1% edge

For exact numbers, you have to run a sim..
 
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