2010 Football Season Picks

[Thunder]

Wow that was one defensive gem between the Ravens and Jets last night. Helped me start off the season 3-1. (Accidentally put picks in preseason link) Now is the time to capitalize on the games because it gets harder after the first few weeks once the bookmakers have a better idea of how good the teams are.

[Sharky]

Nice start Thunder!

I am posting my plays from last week, which I too posted in the preseason, here as well:

Originally Posted by Sharky

Usually only have 1 play...but this week is unusual 2 plays and both from Florida:

Take Jacksonville -2.5 and Tampa Bay -3

Have a "system" - doesn't everyone! - and have done very well (60-75%) for a long time.

Anyway, not only a good record, they are typically over by halftime.

Good luck,

Sharky

Even though they show 1-0-1, I was 2-0 as I got both games at -2.5.

Anyway, I'm using 1-0-1 for the record.

Good luck with continued success.

[Thunder]

Thanks Sharky.

I believe the Texans are going to punish the Redskins this week so I'm taking them at -2.5 (The new Redskins 3-4 alignment is causing them big problems with stopping the run and we saw what the Titan's RB did last week, gaining over 200 yards)

I like the Giants against the Colts at +5.5 as I don't think these Colts are as good as they have been in years past.

Seattle at +3.5 against Denver looks attractive.

I don't usually take lines this big but I like the Packers at -13 against the Bills.

New England -2.5 against the Jets. The Patriots look like their old selves.

KC +2.5 over Cleveland. Cleveland might just be the worst team in the league.

[Sharky]

my system's thoughts exactly...take HOUSTON...I had to search long and hard for that 2.5 though (pinnacle) as Vegas is using 3.

that's it 1 play Houston -2.5

good luck

Sharky

Last week: 1-0-1
Year: 1-0-1

[Thunder]

My book still has Houston at -2.5 Albert Haynesworth also isn't 100% not that it makes a huge difference anyway since he isn't trying hard at all anymore. I bet a lot on this game because unlike the Cowboys, Houston will be smart enough enough to pound the ball down Washington's throats until they prove they can stop the run.

[darco77]

I'm going to claim bets that are post-date. I realize this is bad form, but I'm running a proof-of-concept type deal, and only betting two-digits per game, so I have no incentive to lie.

That being said..

The strategy was simple: Exploit early season mispricing by taking the dog against the league's most overrated team. Simple enough. The only work was determining the most overrated team.

Thanks to a billionaire named Jerry Jones, the answer to my question fell into my lap. In the Romo era, the Cowboys have been a dream set for a fantasy football owner and the stats geek. But they've been a nightmare for the favorite bettor, the oil magnate owner, and worse of all,the fan. For four years now, the Dallas Cowboys have, with the assistance of international media, projected themselves as an elite team. Despite their disappointing record, the media continues to suck their balls. This year was no different. Jones publicly waxed on the idea of the Cowboys playing at home in the next Super Bowl (Is there still Niner Envy in your blood, Jerry? I'm thinking SB XIX is resonating in your dome, homey). End result? Cowboys fail to cover - hell, they fail to WIN - in Week 1 and Week 2.

So that's the problem. It's only week 3, and in any other year some on-the-take ref would have prevented "America"'s Team from losing one of their matches. Now I don't have a bet. The Texans are favored by 3 points, Dallas is the dog. You read that right: Dallas is the Dog.

It's Week 3, and my surefire bet is empty. Anyone?

[Thunder]

My book is allowing me to get the Texans at -2.5 If I were you, I'd grab the Texans in a heartbeat. Their offense is unstoppable right now. They beat the Redskins by 3 at Redskins Stadium and the Redskins threw everything they had at them. The Redskins beat the Cowboys too. Therefore with the Texans playing at home, it seems like a surefire bet given how overrated the Cowboys are.

[Sharky]

i personally would not touch this one with a 10 foot pole...even as an underdog..cowgirls (used to live there and HATE them) lose this one and Wade may be the first coaching casualty of 2010.

i am releasing my play of the week pre-Thunder so no one accuses me of "riding anyone's coattails"

Philly vs. Jacksonville should be a REAL DOGFIGHT with VICK starting at QB, but nonetheless Jacksonville ain't nothing but a HOUND DOG, while the Philly players seem to want Vick and will fight harder...like PIT BULLS to the end...TAKE PHILLY -3.

NOTE: Vegas is currently using 3, but Pinnacle has a 2.5 so I will wait and see how the line moves b4 I lock in..but Philly is definitely my play of the week.

GOOD LUCK,

Last week: 1-0
Season: 2-0-1

[Thunder]

Sharky, let me ask you why you would be afraid to take the Texans over the Cowboys. I wouldn't think that the players would be any more motivated to win than they were the last two weeks. If they don't like Wade Phillips, they may be motivated to play worse! Surely the players know that if they want to make the playoffs in the NFL, every game in a short season of 16 games is vitally important. It's not like baseball where you have 162 games.

[Sharky]

Thunder, I wouldn't bet it because there is no value there as the line is right where I thought it would be. If anything, the Cowgirls could be considered a 'perceived value' play as, obviously (see Colts wk 1), if this was a week 1 game the Cowboys are at least a field goal favorite.

However, my system does not look for "perceived value" plays based on the past, rather I handicap each game each week based on the performance to date and while the cowgirls have their issues, there is no denying they are talented club - just not putting it together. My luck, I bet the Texans and the cowgirls put it together and take them to the woodshed. Worth watching, not worth betting IMO.

Also, my message about my pick this week being a DOG FIGHT was purely in jest...the QB, player motivation, coaches jobs etc. have no bearing on my analysis.

GOOD LUCK

Sharky