2010 Football Season Picks

[moo321]

Originally Posted by Billy C1

Better running game I'll give you--------but not better defense.

Look at these stats in the postseason:

http://www.nfl.com/stats/team

Total Defense YPG:
1. Steelers 207.5

Passing (which matters less, because teams pass more when they're losing)
2. Steelers 155

Rushing
1. 52.5

They're clearly the best rushing defense (which tends to matter more in determining outcomes) and clearly a better passing defense.

The Steelers have given up 1 less yard per offensive play in postseason play. In regular season, it's .6 yards, which is a big difference.

In terms of offensive production per play, the Steelers have put up 5.6 versus Green Bay's 5.7. Very little real difference. Points per game 23.4 versus 24.2. Again, not a big difference. Not a 3 points difference, for sure.


I think the texture of this game is going to be different than a lot of people think. The squares are expecting Green Bay to pass all over Pittsburgh. I don't expect that. This should be a close, hard-fought defensive struggle, and 3 points is too much to give in that sort of game.

[Billy C1]

I'm sure your stats are accurate but they're also somewhat meaningless. The Steelers only played 2 post season games and they were against Baltimore and the Jets (Flacco and Sanchez were the quarterbacks they faced) and neither of these teams is a juggernaut when it comes to offense.
The Packers, on the other hand played 3 post season games and the first two were against formidable offenses (the Eagles with Vick at QB and the Falcons with Ryan at QB).
Game #3 against the Bears they faced a weak offense, for sure (Cutler and worse yet Collins).
All three of the Packers games were road games and both of the Steelers games were at "their house".
I expect to see Cullen Jenkins and Clay Mathews all over Big Ben. If the Steelers win it will be because of their running game and B.J. Raji may have something to say about that.
I would bet the Packers straight up but find it difficult to give ANY points to the Steelers!
I'll be in seated in one of the end zones (don't know which until I pick up my 3k ticket) wearing a "Cheesehead" hat.

BillyC1

[moo321]

Originally Posted by Billy C1

I would bet the Packers straight up but find it difficult to give ANY points to the Steelers!

That's why I like the field goal.

[darco77]

B.Roethlisberger pass attempts under 31½ +100 -- 5 units

A.Rodgers pass attempts under 34½ +140 -- 20 units

[Sharky]

steelers 1-2 for a rushing TD, like this one

GOOD LUCK,

Sharky

PS: Darco please DO NOT spread those units w/o first checking w/ mazMOUTH, he knows everyone's financial position and ballz

[kewljason]

Placed my wagers earlier today. Made three wagers Pittsburgh +3, Pittsburgh moneyline @+135 and the half time line of Pittsburgh +.5, which was an even money bet rather than laying the traditional -110.

Green bay is playing well. No doubt about it. They have won 3 playoff games on the road. A very difficult task. But the fact is the best of those teams that they beat was Philadelphia, a team I follow and love dearly, and Philadelphia has a weak defense. Atlanta played a soft schedule and was overrated and Chicago had no quarterback, with or without cutler. They have not played a team anywhere near the caliber of Pittsburgh. Great defense, good quarterback, good receivers, decent running game. A complete team.

During the season there is a generic superbowl line AFC vs NFC. Before they even know what teams are in the playoffs. At various times during the year that line was between 3.5 point and 6 points with the AFC as the favorite. That tells me that 'the experts' thought the top 3 or 4 AFC teams were superior to the top 3-4 NFC teams. Pittsburgh was always considered one of those top 3-4 AFC teams, while the truth is Green bay was not considered one of the top NFC team. (New Orleans, Atlanta and Philadelphia were) Green Bay needed help at the end of the season just to make the playoffs.

The game basically looks about even to me. I would have thought that Pittsburgh should have been a slight favorite, so I see value in the Pittsburgh wagers both with points and moneyline. Anytime I see a game as even and can get either points or odds, that wager has value to me.

[aslan]

Ever see the movie, The Cooler, with William Macy.

I have a gift for always choosing the wrong team. I won't bet this one because I will be pulling for Pittsburgh, while believing that Green Bay will clobber them. I believe Green Bay will score big and Pittsburgh will plod along, but never really get into the game.

However, since I never get it right, it could mean that Pittsburgh will dominate from the starting gate, and Rodgers will have his worst game of the year.

Having said that, just watch it be a closely fought defensive battle with low scoring by both sides, kind of a contrarian contrarian result (different from either my original guess or counter guess above) with Pittsburgh winning the spread (2 1/2 from the other day) and Green Bay winning the game.

In the final analysis, with my gift for always getting it wrong, you might want to look for some other outcome, although I've never tried to outguess myself (counter guess). It may just work, and Pittsburgh will win easily. Such an outcome would prove their is hope for harnessing my penchant for always getting it wrong. OTOH, if Green Bay wins easily, the curse is broken! A win/win, only how can I bet on a team I am sure will lose?

--Aslan, Football Loser Extraordinaire

[darco77]

A.Rodgers pass attempts under 34½ +140 -- 20 units
B.Roethlisberger pass attempts under 31½ +100 -- 5 units
J.Kuhn rushing attempts over 2½ +115 -- 15 units
J.Kuhn scores a TD +240 -- 2 units
R.Mendenhall pass receptions under 1½ -105 -- 2 units
M.Moore pass receptions over 1 +105 -- 5 units
M.Moore rushing attempts under 2½ -150 -- 5 units
D.Driver no TD's scored -275 -- 2 units
G.Jennings pass receptions Under 5 +125 -- 5 units

[darco77]

Originally Posted by kewljason

The game basically looks about even to me. I would have thought that Pittsburgh should have been a slight favorite, so I see value in the Pittsburgh wagers both with points and moneyline. Anytime I see a game as even and can get either points or odds, that wager has value to me.

I'm in close agreement with you, as I see the game as dead even. However, I just can't pull the trigger on this one. If I could get PIT +3 at a decent price, I'd consider it, but all I can get it for is -124. That's a bit too much for a half point.

[kewljason]

Originally Posted by darco77

I'm in close agreement with you, as I see the game as dead even. However, I just can't pull the trigger on this one. If I could get PIT +3 at a decent price, I'd consider it, but all I can get it for is -124. That's a bit too much for a half point.

That's one of the advantages of living in Vegas. You can go line shopping. I did notice the line has moved twice in the two week period basically. The first few days when it initially came out it was 2.5-3. Late last week and over the weekend it was 1.5 in many places and now it is back to 2.5-3 in most sportsbooks here in Vegas. I would have liked to have gotten 3.5 making a 3 point game a winner, but I was afraid it just might go back the other way and 2.5 is much less attractive, so I took the 3.