2010 Football Season Picks

[aslan]

It's not gonna be close, I tell ya! Rodgers is gonna kill'em! Aslan, FLE

[Dyepaintball12]

http://content.usatoday.com/communit...per-bowl-xlv/1

6 out of the last 7 right!

[darco77]

Originally Posted by kewljason

That's one of the advantages of living in Vegas. You can go line shopping. I did notice the line has moved twice in the two week period basically. The first few days when it initially came out it was 2.5-3. Late last week and over the weekend it was 1.5 in many places and now it is back to 2.5-3 in most sportsbooks here in Vegas. I would have liked to have gotten 3.5 making a 3 point game a winner, but I was afraid it just might go back the other way and 2.5 is much less attractive, so I took the 3.

Yeah, there's not much line shopping to be had when you are a recreational sports bettor with only 2 online accounts! If I was in your spot, I would have paid up to 10 cents to get another half point (PIT +3.5 -120). For what it's worth, Wong states that when the line is within .5 of 3 (2.5 - 3.5), it's sound to pay 10 to 15 cents to move it in your favor (from loss to push, or from push to win). Of course, the presumption here is that your handicapping skills are sound, and in my case, they aren't! Hence, I'm not paying 14 cents for PIT +3.

I didn't realize the line got down to 1.5 in Vegas. I guess the line history on covers.com is failing me, or you're shopping spots not listed on their website. I'm curious to see what happens to the line in the next 26 hours or so. If I make a play on the game, I'll be looking for a mispriced moneyline leading into kickoff.

[darco77]

Originally Posted by aslan

It's not gonna be close, I tell ya! Rodgers is gonna kill'em! Aslan, FLE

Aslan, if your football prognostication skills are 100% inaccurate, you could sell your picks for some decent coin, my friend.

[aslan]

Originally Posted by darco77

Aslan, if your football prognostication skills are 100% inaccurate, you could sell your picks for some decent coin, my friend.

That's what I'm hoping for.

[MAZ]

Originally Posted by Sharky

steelers 1-2 for a rushing TD, like this one

GOOD LUCK,

Sharky

PS: Darco please DO NOT spread those units w/o first checking w/ mazMOUTH, he knows everyone's financial position and ballz

Tsk, tsk, Sharky.....you really are sooooo easy to put on tilt.


Now for the rest of the real world. I think the game today is going to be a good one with an outcome that won't be too difficult to determine.

My pick for the Superbowl is Pitt +2.5 for 5 units

Aaron Rodgers is good, but almost lost it last game when he got hit in the mouth. His stats after contact are bad. I think he is going to get hit today. I think Big Ben is just the opposite, hitting him is part of his game, and with all the big game experience on Pitt, I see this being a cover and all out win for the Steelers.


Of course for the fairytale bettors out there such as our little friend Sharky, my make believe bet will be 120 units more than whatever the little fella bets today. Of course the best bet of the day will be he responds with a rather witless response, and thats where the true money lies.....betting on Sharky's lack of humor and wit.

You are right to fear me Sharky.

[Thunder]

I think they match up pretty darn well which is why I'll be taking the Steelers at +3 at -108. GL all.

[Sharky]

history says to pick who you think will win the game as the line rarely matters in this game:

of the last 22 SB's, consider:

16 times the line didn't matter
3 times the dog won outright as double digit underdogs (including the recent Giants win over NE, which opened at 14, 12.5 at kickoff)
only 4 times the line mattered not including 2 ties (a vegas nightmares, which is why they are so reluctant to move off of 2.5)

Also, shrewd move vegas - getting many people to lay 20 cents on both sides of this one - would like to have a piece of that with a $90 million handle.

so my pick is the STEELERS +135, but i do not like this one nearly as much as the afc championship game. also, wait closer to gametime and you may even get a +140.

GOOD LUCK and GO STEELERS!!!

Sharky

PS: mazgirl, me on tilt??? i say exactly 6 words to you and you respond with a 300 word RANT...HA HA HA i have you on a string puppetBOY, play you like a drum FOOL

[darco77]

Pittsburgh Steelers +138 -- 3 units

[QFIT]

Gordon advised four props, but thinks the game too close to bet the on overall results. (Except that he bet there will be an odd number of total points.) Prediction: Packers 28, Steelers 27.