2010 Football Season Picks

[darco77]

Originally Posted by kewljason

Not to be crying over spilled milk...

Let the spilled milk flow. I didn't think much of the field goal attempt until reading your post. I assumed he was good at that range indoors, but yeah, that's probably a punt situation.

Speaking of spilled milk, here's my grief: A.Rodgers pass attempts under 34½ +140 -- 20 units. Ouch. I expected more passing than rushing, but not a 39-13 split. If GB's receiving corp makes a few of those inexcusable drops, then this one is in the money.

In total, my props portfolio lost about 30 units. The two Kuhn props were canceled by the book, reducing my action. In the end, though, I was saved by the ultimate ploppy play. I hit one of my football squares in the 3rd quarter for +30 units. Luck > Good

Originally Posted by kewljason

I was however disappointed in the TV commercials.

Oh, so they did suck this year! I was wondering about that, since this is the first SB in 5 years that I was completely sober.

[QFIT]

Dan Gordon ended up 24-14-3. (Better on his own bets -- but he doesn't include bets not widely available in his record.) In units, this is 9.7 units. But, he only bets 0.67, 1.0 or 1.33 units. A wide spread in sports betting is ridiculously risky. This is not BJ where we play scores of hands an hour. And, betting substantially more units at the end of the season to make up for losses (in order to statistically erase early decisions) belongs on the voodoo board. Given the vig, in sports betting, you cannot make a bet without a very strong sense of value, and, unlike BJ, a wide spread disastrously increases risk. There simply are not enough hands to get into the “long run” unless your value is far higher than in high volume games.

[MAZ]

Originally Posted by Sharky

oh, well i commend you for attempting to run with the big boys, unfortunately you got burned - i see this all too often with amateurs - i hope you learned from this and understand sports gambling is not as easy as you think.


Season results:

Sharky: +101.9 Units
mazBOY: 6.4 units

better luck next year, son

Your avatar matches you perfectly, good choice in using your most recent actual picture.

Yes I do have much to learn in the area of sports handicapping, it was something I did for a goof and actually didn't put in the effort necessary to be what I would deem a success either. But what I am is a professional money making machine and there was no way I was taking a loss on the season, so I did actually put more effort into analysis as I started to have mounting losses. Whether it be luck or not I applied purely sabermetric approaches to the games during the playoffs and it pulled out my season to be a winner.

At any rate I know you REALLY lost on the year Sharky. You and I both know you didn't bet hundred units on the whole year combined let alone one game in the playoffs. And your measly 2.4 unit win for the season was swallowed up by your superbowl loss. No shame in that, christ what are ya, about 6 months old? I say thats pretty good sweetie. Just think what you can be when you grow up. So post all the results you want, its the internet.....at least here you can finally be a winner.

[Dyepaintball12]

Originally Posted by Sharky

oh, well i commend you for attempting to run with the big boys, unfortunately you got burned - i see this all too often with amateurs - i hope you learned from this and understand sports gambling is not as easy as you think.


Season results:

Sharky: +101.9 Units
mazBOY: 6.4 units

better luck next year, son

You cocky SOB you bet 100 units on a game and won. That is shockingly risky and I give you no props for being ahead this much.

[Billy C1]

I seldom disagree with Jason but both he and moo321 made posts about the Super Bowl that I'm in disagreement with.
First Jason. The best team DID win the SB!
1. Quarterback----no comparison. Rodgers and Big Ben weren't in the same time zone. Rodgers threw for more yards, less interceptions (none) and put on a clinic for aspiring young QB's with his coolness and accuracy. Big Ben----you saw the game.
2. Defense----Packers gave up more rushing yards and less passing yards BUT here's the key---Pack D forced THREE Steelers turnovers (2 interceptions and 1 fumble that was recovered by GB. Steelers D forced NO turnovers so this alone made the Pack far and away the better D---21 points scored by GB as a result of the takeaways (the clear difference in the game).
3. For another opinion on this read Troy Polamalu's quote in Monday's USA Today. Final line he says "Packers defense played better than ours did". I won't argue with the Steelers recently crowned Defensive Player of the Year.
4. We agreed going in that the Steelers have better running game but remember that their vaunted running back (Mendenhall) coughed up the fumble when hit by Clay Mathews.

moo321, forced turnovers ARE defensive plays.

BillyC1

[aslan]

As much as I wanted Pittsburgh to win, the record proves Green Bay the better team. Personally, I think the GB receivers took the great Rodgers (and I say that with respect, not jokingly) out of the game; but GB's defense (forcing three turnovers and stopping the final drive) and the Steeler's poor offense (three turnovers and fizzle at the end) are what really won/lost the game. Another day, maybe a different result... but on Sunday, Green Bay was without a doubt the better team.

[creeping panther]

Originally Posted by aslan

As much as I wanted Pittsburgh to win, the record proves Green Bay the better team. Personally, I think the GB receivers took the great Rodgers (and I say that with respect, not jokingly) out of the game; but GB's defense (forcing three turnovers and stopping the final drive) and the Steeler's poor offense (three turnovers and fizzle at the end) are what really won/lost the game. Another day, maybe a different result... but on Sunday, Green Bay was without a doubt the better team.

Yes,, good points you make on the game.

I just wish that since the season is over that Maz and Sharky would shake hands and make up, I hate to see the tension and the insults hurled each others way,,,

(Even if it is sorta funny and entertaining,,, kudos and props to both for an excellent exchange)

CP

[moo321]

Rodgers played better than I thought. I still can't believe the Steelers gave up 3 turnovers and didn't force any.

Although you can see Pittsburgh was clearly better with 3 points. They were -3 in turnovers and were in the game the whole way, and could have won with a 2 minute drill.


It was a square line. The bookies lost a bundle on it, which usually means it was a square line.

[aslan]

Originally Posted by moo321

Rodgers played better than I thought. I still can't believe the Steelers gave up 3 turnovers and didn't force any.

Although you can see Pittsburgh was clearly better with 3 points. They were -3 in turnovers and were in the game the whole way, and could have won with a 2 minute drill.


It was a square line. The bookies lost a bundle on it, which usually means it was a square line.

Pittsburgh was clearly better with 6 1/2 points, nothing less. Yes, if they played perfect, they would have won, but if they had played perfect (no turnovers and a two-minute drill), they wouldn't have needed any points!

[Billy C1]

In case anyone's interested here's a few observations from being at the SB.
1. Cowboys Stadium is an engineering marvel that's worth seeing once.
2. I don't know who to blame for the logistics problems (NFL or Jerry Jones) but we stood in line for over 3 hours to get into the stadium.
3. How can they line up someone to sing the National Anthem that doesn't even know the words--------totally unacceptable!!!!!
4. 12 oz. bottle of MGD was $10 and a Hamburger was $25 (it was big)
5. The magnitude of the event was almost overwhelming for a small town guy like me-------unforgettable!!!!!
6. Dallas has a good mass transit system (DART). We were there from Friday through Monday and were able to visit places like the Texas Book Depository (where Oswald shot Kennedy from).
7. Weather was far less than ideal but who cares?
8. Great ballgame----my team won----GO PACK GO!!!!!

BillyC1