Knew 100% I would be delt an ace

SWFL Blackjack

SWFL Blackjack

Well-Known Member
#1
#1
A couple years ago, I was playing a CSM game (before I knew ANYTHING about AP) and the casino had both H17 and S17 games. I was playing a S17 table when the dealer accidently hit his soft 17 with an Ace. He called the pit over, and had the dealer place the card in front of the CSM to be delt for the next hand. I was at first base, so granted I knew my first card was an ace. I bet the farm, sadly I didn't win the hand.
 
2

21forme

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
You did the right thing, even though it didn't work out. EV for a known ace is 52%. It's surprising the pit didn't burn that card.
 
SWFL Blackjack

SWFL Blackjack

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
21forme said:
You did the right thing, even though it didn't work out. EV for a known ace is 52%. It's surprising the pit didn't burn that card.
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I was very surprised as well, and it took me a minute to actually believe the pit allowed the card to stay in play, especially in a CSM game. I can see how ploppies could argue the "flow of the cards" junk in a shoe game, but in a CSM, all cards are assumed random anyways (except for those who may have some method of beating CSM's, and if they do, more power to them!)
 
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dacium

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
Yeah the 'flow' is a powerful thing for ploppies and that seems to make them so much money. I had a session yesterday and every time i wonged out other players would spread or wong out to because i had wrecked the 'flow'.

I passed a csm game and saw a marked Ace, only very slight but I could see it, its surface was slightly uneven like a gain of dirt was on the card when it printed. I played the table for 5 and a half hours before it game up again, bet table max and got a 9, dealer busted on 8 7 9. Its easy if you are only going to do it once because you just stand up and declare your 'last bet' and make it really big.

From what I can work out (311 lossing hands at -0.5%EV $5 bets, compared to 1 hand at 50% EV $500 bet) thats a EV of 1.6% to the player.
 
SWFL Blackjack

SWFL Blackjack

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
dacium said:
Yeah the 'flow' is a powerful thing for ploppies and that seems to make them so much money. I had a session yesterday and every time i wonged out other players would spread or wong out to because i had wrecked the 'flow'.

I passed a csm game and saw a marked Ace, only very slight but I could see it, its surface was slightly uneven like a gain of dirt was on the card when it printed. I played the table for 5 and a half hours before it game up again, bet table max and got a 9, dealer busted on 8 7 9. Its easy if you are only going to do it once because you just stand up and declare your 'last bet' and make it really big.

From what I can work out (311 lossing hands at -0.5%EV $5 bets, compared to 1 hand at 50% EV $500 bet) thats a EV of 1.6% to the player.
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Even if the ace was marked, how did you know it would be coming out that round? Usually cards are not delt from a CSM until after all bets are down, making it seem impossible to see the marked card since it would still be inside the CSM.
 
Lonesome Gambler

Lonesome Gambler

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
This will probably seem like a dumb question, but I haven't paid close attention to this part of the CSM dealing procedure: is the next card to be dealt loaded at the front of the machine like you would see in a shoe game? If so, you would be able to see a mark in the center of the card before the round is dealt, and an observant person sitting at 1st base could bet the max on their hand.

Specifically: does it look like 1) or 2) as bets are being placed?

1)


2)
 
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dacium

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
SWFL Blackjack said:
Even if the ace was marked, how did you know it would be coming out that round? Usually cards are not delt from a CSM until after all bets are down, making it seem impossible to see the marked card since it would still be inside the CSM.
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Where i play the cards flow out of the csm. There is always one card showing face down at the front of the CSM at the end of every hand. You dont see about 5% of it as its held in a the 'shoe' but you can see the rest of its back easily. So I just played first position until it happened to be the first card.
 
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dacium

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
Lonesome Gambler said:
Specifically: does it look like 1) or 2) as bets are being placed?
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It looks like 1 - with the card showing. But where i play the opening is much more generous, the dealers usually just thumb the bottom left corner of the card to draw it, i would say 90% of the front face of the card is available to look at, more than the 50% that those pictures you had show.

I wonder how many cards are actually already drawn. It must be more than one. I am guessing its at least 2 or 3, because whenever the dealer draws a card, you always see another card, you never see the black like in picture 2.
 
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