Unfortunate TC +5 outcome

blackjackomaha

Well-Known Member
#1
Hey all! I've been playing for a couple years (since i turned 21) and to-date, am positive from when I began. Here are the rules for the games I've been playing: 6 Decks, H17, DD allowed after split, split cards up to 4x ('cept Aces split once), and roughly 90% penetration (I've come to notice certain dealers will only cut off 1/2 deck, and make sure to play those). Every $10+ game is also hand-shuffled.

It was back/forth, and I was up 5 units ($20/unit) after 2 hours. The TC (I currently use Hi-Lo) never went above +1 until the last shoe I played. During this last shoe, the TC hit +5 with roughly 2 decks remaining. Unfortunately, I took a slight hit when the cards were at their best. I was at first base, and had my maximum bet ($100) out. The dealer had a 6 showing. I was dealt a pair of 7's. I split them, and received a 2 - doubled down for a hand total of 19. On my other 7, I received an A. I doubled, receiving a 10 for a second hand total of 18. There were 4 other players, and each had a stiff. The guy sitting at 3rd base had been iffy on his plays all night (ie, asking what he should do, and had taken all advice given). He had been dealt a 9-3, and I, along with every player and the dealer, tried to explain the proper play was to stand. He argued that he lost the majority of the hands he listened to us on, and demanded to hit. I then offered to pay his minimum bet if he stayed (effectively giving him no loss). He rebuffed my offer and hit. Naturally, he received a J, busting his hand. Dealer flips his card, shows a Q for a total of 16. Next card - 4. Table loss (as the highest hand on the table was 18).

Fail.

At least I was able to work my way back for the next few hours and left only down 3 units, and still staying positive to-date. It's unfortunate that such a positive TC can result in some of the most-disappointing, as well as most-satisfying, results. This was only the second 6 Deck shoe I've seen hit TC +5, and it was one of my worst performing.

Perhaps the next one will produce better results...
 

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
#2
Obviously you haven't played much because this kind of thing happens quite frequently. And a TC of +5 or even much higher is not that uncommon for a 6-deck shoe with 90% pen. Be prepared to get used to both occurences happening.
 

Sero

Active Member
#3
Get over it

blackjackomaha said:
The guy sitting at 3rd base had been iffy on his plays all night (ie, asking what he should do, and had taken all advice given). He had been dealt a 9-3, and I, along with every player and the dealer, tried to explain the proper play was to stand. He argued that he lost the majority of the hands he listened to us on, and demanded to hit. I then offered to pay his minimum bet if he stayed (effectively giving him no loss). He rebuffed my offer and hit. Naturally, he received a J, busting his hand. Dealer flips his card, shows a Q for a total of 16. Next card - 4. Table loss (as the highest hand on the table was 18).
What if the opposite had happened like the player got 4 and dealer busted with J? The cards are blind and noone knows the value of a card until dealer turns it over. What card other players receives (before or after you) could help you as likely as it could hurt you.

SERO
 

blackjackomaha

Well-Known Member
#4
21gunsalute said:
Obviously you haven't played much because this kind of thing happens quite frequently. And a TC of +5 or even much higher is not that uncommon for a 6-deck shoe with 90% pen. Be prepared to get used to both occurrences happening.
Yeah, unfortunately I've only accumulated around 450 hours of play. I'm sure as I accumulate more, I'll see higher TC's. Yeah, I understand it happens frequently, just one of those times when I wish I wouldn't have
 

rrwoods

Well-Known Member
#7
tensplitter said:
Ploppies taking hits does affect your outcome. They are more likely to draw tens which will decrease the true count.
In a true counted system this isn't the case. The expected change in the true count of a balanced system when a card is removed from the shoe is zero. This is easily proved.

I'm not sure about unbalanced counts. Haven't done the math on it yet.
 
#8
rrwoods said:
In a true counted system this isn't the case. The expected change in the true count of a balanced system when a card is removed from the shoe is zero. This is easily proved.

I'm not sure about unbalanced counts. Haven't done the math on it yet.
In an unbalanced system (non-true counted) drawing cards throughout the hand will change the observed count but not the actual advantage or the correct decision. It changes it by an amount far less than the precision possible with any type of count, so it is moot.
 

Thunder

Well-Known Member
#9
Reminds me of yesterday when I had a +4 TC with my max bet out. Dealer had a 2 showing and I had two 7's. I split and got another 7. Then I got a 2 on the first hand and doubled. Got 19. 17 on the second hand. Got an ace on the third hand and doubled the soft 18 for a hard 18. Dealer flips over the hole card for an 8 and of course pulls a monkey for a 20 and a total wipeout. That hurt to say the least.
 
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