Reaching goals

Hi all,

again i need some help.

House edge 0.47% (6 decks, S17, DAS, Late Surrender, No Peek)
Basic player
BR:$1000

the player plays until he`ll either have lost his roll or he`ll have doubled up.

what are propabilities of reaching these goals by playing:

1)single box by $100
2)two boxes by $50
3)single box by $75 and increasing the bet by $25 after a win

(player has always additional money for doubling and splitting if needed)

as always,
thanks in advance for your help

Mike

There you go again.

House edge 0.47% (6 decks, S17, DAS, Late Surrender, No Peek)

How do you get "late surrender, no peak'.

What you post must make sense for others to help you here.

Why isn't this post in the voodoo forum?

You're jumping to conclusions. There ARE some houses that offer "late surrender, no peek". The way it's usually done is as such: If you surrender vs. a ten or an ace, the dealer will pull a lammer-like button out of the rack that says "surrender" on it, and places it on top of your bet. When the hand is completed and if the dealer doesn't have BJ, he then will scoop exactly half of your bet.

Yes I have seen this for Spanish 21 not BJ. Look at all the man's previous postings and you tell me if you think differently then.

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjbse.php?numdecks=6+decks&soft17=s17&dbl=all&das=yes&surr=ls&peek=no

no further comments needed

cause its a math problem.

i`ll go a little in detail.
where i`m now,casinos are paying discount to players (under special conditions).
means,a player can get (for example) 20% of his losses back on a daily base.
as a result of these outstanding conditions,
i provide some broke asses with a small BR,i let them play basic,i got my %.period.
but what is the best betting strategy,i should let them play?

of course a single bet max stake.
unfortunately the casinos are not that stupid.......

Mike

I am referring to increasing you bet $25 after a win. That is clearly a voodoo move.

As long as the casino is willing to cover 20% of total losses per day, it seems like a super positive EV situation.

Let me see if I get this right: In this case, one will be playing regularly (daily, every other day, 5 days a week etc.). Every day will be considered as a session, and the session will end when the $1000 is gone or becomes $2000, whichever comes first.

In this case, the result will be something like:

Day 1: Lost $1,000, got back 20% rebate, net loss $800
Day 2: Won $1,000
Day 3: Won $1,000
Day 4: Lost $1,000, got back 20% rebate, net loss $800
.....

At the end of this, of course after lots of variance in either way, let's assume 50% of the sessions will end up with a win and 50% will end up with a loss for simplicity. Then, the result after 100 days of play will be $10,000 net profit. After 300 days of play, it will be $30,000. If you play bigger stakes, say $3K per day, it'll be $90K profit/year, provided you play 6 days a week.

Well of course assuming 50-50 is a little bit naive, given there's 0.47% house edge. Winning sessions can be a little bit less, however, you can overcome this by backcounting (though it might kill your longevity, since you'll be at this shop every friggin day).

Now the questions are:

- Does the casino commit to 20% rebate everyday, no matter how well you do on the following or previous days?
- Even if the casino commits to this, in order to get the rebate, you'll need to provide ID/card etc. So, after 20-50-100 days of play, they will notice that you're making a ton of profit. Can we say that there is a huge risk that they will shut the promo down for you?
- Let's say you lose 10 sessions, 20 sessions back to back, do you have $16K total bankroll to cover those losses? If your starting bankroll is $3K, bankroll can be wiped off in the first week.

@ Aslan

of course,its a voodoo move.
i`m aware that no betting system will alter the house edge.

but how often will our $1000 be lost by betting one box $100?
how likely will we double up?my guess is 55/45?!?

will betting two boxes $50 show different results?i think not,but i`m not sure.

the higher we bet the less wagers we make.in result the highest prob to double up is certainly a single bet of $1000.
but of course casinos will refuse paying rebate.
session times should be avg between 30 and 60 min,to avoid supicions.


@ wwcd

finally a soulmate!:grin:

i have about one dozend casinos,and 4 players.
have fun by counting the expectation.

and yes,rebates are given on a daily base.
of course this won`t go forever,but all my players are local regulars
(over years) and they are all 60 years+.
elderly people are usually flying under the radar and elderly people
won`t steal my money as often as younger ones.

BR isn`t an real issue for me.

i give 50% to players (with makeup of course).

but pls,i`m doing all this more or less in the dark.
means,that any precise math background is missing.

so my questions are

1)what is an optimal betting size for a single session?
2)what`s MY overall expectation?
3)what`s My RoR (lets say 50k or 100k BR)?

even more important for me:
i aswell get a good discount at some places.
i count HiLo with an A sidecount and i track the shuffles (most are fairly easy).i`m not worldclass but not bad either.
my guess is that i can realize 1.5-2.0% on the tables without discount.

4)i`m winning or loosing 50% of my session roll at a place that will
give me back 20% of my losses.
go on playing or quit and go for next place?

Mike

CVCX Online

http://www.qfit.com/blackjack-online-calculators.htm

Beyond Counting by James Grosjean-

http://www.beyondcounting.com/ (Archive copy)

thx a lot.

one question:

when i use this:
http://www.qfit.com/blackjack-calculator-c4.htm

what`s standard deviation for a basic player (-0.5%)?

Mike

For a flat-betting BS player, it should be about 1.15 units per hand.

-Sonny-

tyvm,

so for a player,playing a single box by one unit and a BR of 10 units,
following definitions are correct???

End Result in Units/Goal 20
Bankroll in Units 10
Win rate per 100 hands -0.47
Std. Dev. per 100 hand 115

i get this result:
Probability of reaching Goal = 49.98%!

this number seems a little high to me

Mike

Bump

You're bumping the thread and you're mad that no one has replied? My reply is in spite of this, not because of it. When you're looking for help, I would suggest a bit more courtesy and patience in the future.
Since your odds aren't even that high with the single bet of $1000, yes, it's certainly a little high. But it's not off as much as you think. You've got one incorrect number in your "definitions." If the Std Dev for 1 hand is 1.15, then the Std Dev for 100 hands is 11.5 (not 115). You multiply the Std Dev for 1 trial (or hand) by the square root of the total trials to get the Std Dev for that number of trials. But even using 11.5 instead of 115, your probability of reaching that goal is still 48.22%. So if you have a bankroll of $1000, and you're betting $100 per hand and playing basic strategy, you have a little better than a 48% chance of doubling up before going bust.

You said it yourself. The best odds would be one hand of $1K. Dropping the bets down to $100 doesn't decrease the odds that much. Taking it a step further, if you only bet $10 per hand then:

200 : End Result in Units/Goal
100: Bankroll in Units
-.47: Win rate per 100 hands
11.5: Std. Dev. per 100 hands

gives a probability of doubling up of only 32.94%

The more bets you have to make to reach your goal, the more the house edge will affect the probability of you reaching that goal. But you already knew that.

0

tyvm,

your answer helps me a lot.

i obv clicked the wrong smilie,
sorry for that.

Mike