Shackleford predicts PA will tighten BJ Rules

'Wizard' predicts state will tighten blackjack rules

By Mark Gruetze, PITTSBURGH TRIBUNE-REVIEW
Friday, November 19, 2010

Blackjack players in Pennsylvania should enjoy a good game while they can, says the gambling statistician known as the Wizard of Odds.

"I applaud Pennsylvania for giving the players good blackjack rules," Michael "The Wizard" Shackleford said last week from Las Vegas. "I would anticipate that the rules are going to get worse. In markets where there's not a lot of competition, you tend to see lousy rules."

Pennsylvania launched table games in July with several player-friendly rules, including a stipulation that player blackjacks be paid 3-to-2 ($15 for a $10 bet) rather than the 6-to-5 rate ($12 for a $10 bet) that has wormed its way into other jurisdictions. Other rules that limit the house advantage for the state's 10 casinos include requiring the dealer to stand on soft 17 (Ace-6) and permitting "surrender," in which players may give up their hand in return for losing only half their bet.

According to the "blackjack house edge calculator" at Shackleford's WizardOfOdds.com, Pennsylvania's rules reduce the casino advantage to less than 0.4 percent for a player adhering to basic strategy.

As the Gaming Control Board considered rules this spring, industry representatives asked for the option of 6-to-5 payouts and hitting on soft 17. Kevin O'Toole, the board's executive director, said in June that the blackjack rules could be reviewed after a few months. He declined comment this week about potential changes.

Shackleford predicted casinos will press for the option of hitting soft 17 and paying 6-to-5 on naturals. Those two rules have the greatest impact on house advantage in six- and eight-deck games.

MORE- http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/ae/s_710165.html

I don't agree. Whenever casinos are selling their case to state legislatures, they tell stories of wealthy businessmen from Hong Kong flying in to Scranton to bet hundreds of thousands in their casinos, but in reality, these PA stores are locals joints and we know locals joints tend to have better than average games. They might go as far as H17, because AC proved that won't offend their clientele too much but 6:5 in AC was as well-received as a bacon cheeseburger at a bar mitzvah and only a few tables are left.

What we might get are more sidebets and carnival games, but to an AP those are opportunities.

Side bets games aren't really opportunities. Reason being is that they slow the game a lot assuming you have other players at the table who do these bets.

I'm not sure on this, PA has a 16% tax on the games, and in neighboring DE, with the 35% tax rate, the casinos are complaining they are breaking even and not showing any profit. Those are much higher than AC's rate. Here's the link for DE

(Dead link: http://www.wboc.com/Global/story.asp?S=13538227)

-B

Whether you agree or not, look at some recent history:
Until summer '09, when limits were raised from $5 to $100, almost all casinos in Colorado were S17. Now almost all are H17. About 6 months ago, they lobbied for 6:5 BJ and it was approved. Several casinos now offer SD 6:5, though none have tried multi-deck 6:5 as seen in Vegas. Colorado casinos are all locals' casinos as well. None are near the typical tourist areas like the national parks or ski areas.

If business as usual prevails, corporate America will have its way in the end. My hope is that the wave of anti-corporatism (not anti-business, but anti-corporate influence over government policy) will continue to grow and have positive effects on all facets of American life, including the rules for casino games. It's comforting (and at this time also hallucinatory) to feel that government has our best interests at heart. But, hope springs eternal........

But on the other hand, the IJ's in the Great Lakes states offer excellent rules, always have, and they can deal anything they want any time they want. Same for Northern NV, you can still find 3:2 SD dealt RO7.

So I think the dominant factor in keeping rules quality up is still player acceptance. It's why LV has gone to hell; totally dependent on tourists who will play anything. Unfortunately experience has proven that players will accept H17, the exception I'm aware of being Foxwoods where they tried 4 H17 tables which sat empty until they were removed.

Michael S.

Competition and education will always benefit the consumer. I already see this occuring in a big way.:grin:

I believe that good things will be happening for those who wait and practice discipline in game selection and are willing to think outside the box.

Casinos opening in Ohio will spur, Kentucky and Tennesse,,,and on and on,,,great for us and good for those states.

It is our responsiblity to educate the consumer and to do so in whatever ways we can. We also must lean on the Politicians to not allow 6.5 etc.

The casinos need us, we do not need them. We have the power to bring them to their knees,,,if their debt does not do them in first.

CP

Do you think Vegas owes its success more to marketing the fun vacation, sin city, neon lights, excitement, entertainment mecca, golfing haven, a place to indulge oneself amidst lavish displays of wealth and wonder, etc. where gambling becomes more incidental to the real reason people flock there? And for the gambler there is the quantity factor--Las Vegas Advisor lists no less than 78 casinos in the Vegas area. It still beats AC where double deck is a lost cause, H17 is the norm, aces split only once, and "surrender" is a feeling in the pit of your stomach.

Let's not kid ourselves, either. There's some decay, but Vegas still has some of the best games in America for counting.