Always or Never...

The intent of all of the books out there and all of the expert recommendations to always do this and never do that is to create a linch mob mentality at the BJ table. If the house can't convince you to stand, split, double, or surrender, then an angry mob of players might.

I say this....

Splitting 10's It is your money. You are there to gamble and have fun. The odds that everything is based upon for splitting a pair are based upon splitting up to 3 times so you have 4 hands in fron to you. Any pair other than 10's leaves you with a 1 in 13 chance of getting another pair upon a split. A split on 10's leaves you with a 4 in 13 chance of getting another pair to split. This is where a split pair of 10's stops. You should only split 10's once. Pretty good odds to get another 20. But, every time you split them, you give odds back to the house. If you get another pair, STAND. And only split 10's against a dealer's 4, 5, 6, and 7. If you get an A on top of a 10 when a dealer has a 5 or 6... Double down. Remember, the only true double downs are an 11 and 10 vs a dealer's 3, 4, 5, and 6. Anything else gives odds back to the house. Same goes for a soft 17 and 18.

Only other soft hands to double on are 19's and 20's. Only against a dealer's 5 or 6. But only when your gutt is telling you to do so. All other soft hands are a gambler's bet at best.

As far as A's and 8's... Since you only get one card and you can't resplit A's, never follow the ALWAYS rule. Just go with your gutt for dealer hands of 9's and 10's. For 8's...I have seen one too many times, when a play splits until he or she can't split any more, and gets a double down or two to boot....I have witnessed many times, more than not, that the dealer gets a 21 out of a bunch of crap. This happens most often when you expect it not to Against a dealer's 4, 5, and 6. Against a dealer's 9 and 10, go with your gutt.

As far as 9's Split them once against a dealer's 7, and you may be pleasantly suprised at the return. You get 1 in 13 chances for a double; 4 in 13 chances for a 19, 1 in 13 chances for a 20, and 1 in 13 chances for an 18. The dealer has a 4 in 10 chance of having to stand.

A dealer's A weakens when it isn't a BJ. But, do not treat that 1 or 11 lightly.

Call me crazy and call me names at the table. It is my money and what I take as far as another card may even help you out instead of always hurt your hand. See you at the tables!

The intent of all of the books out there and all of the expert recommendations to always do this and never do that is to create a linch mob mentality at the BJ table. If the house can't convince you to stand, split, double, or surrender, then an angry mob of players might.

I say this....

Splitting 10's It is your money. You are there to gamble and have fun. The odds that everything is based upon for splitting a pair are based upon splitting up to 3 times so you have 4 hands in fron to you. Any pair other than 10's leaves you with a 1 in 13 chance of getting another pair upon a split. A split on 10's leaves you with a 4 in 13 chance of getting another pair to split. This is where a split pair of 10's stops. You should only split 10's once. Pretty good odds to get another 20. But, every time you split them, you give odds back to the house. If you get another pair, STAND. And only split 10's against a dealer's 4, 5, 6, and 7. If you get an A on top of a 10 when a dealer has a 5 or 6... Double down. Remember, the only true double downs are an 11 and 10 vs a dealer's 3, 4, 5, and 6. Anything else gives odds back to the house. Same goes for a soft 17 and 18.

Only other soft hands to double on are 19's and 20's. Only against a dealer's 5 or 6. But only when your gutt is telling you to do so. All other soft hands are a gambler's bet at best.

As far as A's and 8's... Since you only get one card and you can't resplit A's, never follow the ALWAYS rule. Just go with your gutt for dealer hands of 9's and 10's. For 8's...I have seen one too many times, when a play splits until he or she can't split any more, and gets a double down or two to boot....I have witnessed many times, more than not, that the dealer gets a 21 out of a bunch of crap. This happens most often when you expect it not to Against a dealer's 4, 5, and 6. Against a dealer's 9 and 10, go with your gutt.

As far as 9's Split them once against a dealer's 7, and you may be pleasantly suprised at the return. You get 1 in 13 chances for a double; 4 in 13 chances for a 19, 1 in 13 chances for a 20, and 1 in 13 chances for an 18. The dealer has a 4 in 10 chance of having to stand.

A dealer's A weakens when it isn't a BJ. But, do not treat that 1 or 11 lightly.

Call me crazy and call me names at the table. It is my money and what I take as far as another card may even help you out instead of always hurt your hand. See you at the tables!

Tensplit, you should write a 'how-to-win' booklet... but first, go visit http://www.cipherblackjack.com (Archive copy) zg

While I realize that how a player plays has zero effect on my cards,I hate playing with people like Tensplit at the table. They make me laugh so hard,I can't concentrate.

While I realize that how a player plays has zero effect on my cards,I hate playing with people like Tensplit at the table. They make me laugh so hard,I can't concentrate.

More often than not the other players at my table see me as the idiot! zg

Tensplit says that not following the book will cause a lynch mob mentality in the other players.

I say, that his statement is based on absolutely no facts at all. As any purely basic strategy player can tell you, if you hit 12vs3, split your 9's, double your soft18 or hit it against a 9,10 or ace and things do not work out, the lynch mob will appear instantly! You did not deviate from basic strategy, you followed it perfectly but it means nothing to other players because they have no idea of what it is anyway.
So like Cass does, just empty that table. Hopefully those players have left just you, the dealer and a great count.

Remeber, on a game with a house edge somewhere between .18%-.63%, the house actually makes something close to 3%. That should give you an idea of how many of your table mates know basic strategy much less can actually count.

ihate17

I have read every book out there and have intensely read all of the probability papers and charts for BJ.

What it boils down to is this...

Certain assumptions are made and calculated into the formulas and percentages.

What is not built into the calculations are deviations from the assumptions.

Never split 9's against a 7 unless you split them once and you feel 10's are due. More often than not an 18 will beat that possible dealer 17 or possible bust.

Never split 10's more than once, unless you are a card counter, Then do as your books tell you. And only split them against a dealers 4, 5, 6, and 7.

The dealer busts 25% of the time on a 7 and draws to a 17 about 31% of the time. That is 56%!

Better than the ~40% the dealer busts for a 4, 5, and 6. Do you know that the 4 is the biggest bust card for the dealer? Not the 6. But the dealer actually draws to a higher hand with a 4 when he doesn't bust?

You should never assume there is a 10 under the up card for the dealer. If one is there more than 31% of the time, get up and go to another table, casino, or game. If you keep getting 17 or 12 on the deal, do the same. I have played this game long enough to know there are tricks of the trade which some how, ensure the flow in favor of the house is preserved. If you see this pattern in one shoe and then another, call it a night. You will just throw your hard earned money away. All of the card counting in the world will not matter when this is occuring.

I do not card count and mostly follow the basic strategy as a guide. But I am also a gambler and do as my gutt tells me. Overall, I am better than break even at the tables. I have done what the basic strategy recommends and yes, there are people who will tell me I am wrong when I do. To me there is no better game of witts and nerve. And I personally could give a heck when someone makes a bad bet or takes a bad hit. But I love to see other players take chance and do what they feel "might" happen.

BASIC STRATEGY. According to your post, you either dont know it, or you dont follow it.

Its clear he doesn't know it.. BUT he can still win with
CIPHERBLACKJACK.COM ! zg

I have given this matter a lot of thought. When first I started playing, I used to try to explain basic strategy plays to people at the tables when confronted with the obvious damage I was causing to the rest of the table. After all, Blackjack is a team game, right? But, it's like arguing politics or religion....you ain't gonna win. Now, I pretty much sit back and expect them to go broke. They don't always. Sometimes they win using Voodoo Strategy. I think it must be the super ego nutrient they get from defying the odds in making bad plays and winning.

I have read every book out there and have intensely read all of the probability papers and charts for BJ.

Certain assumptions are made and calculated into the formulas and percentages.

What is not built into the calculations are deviations from the assumptions.

Never split 9's against a 7 unless you split them once and you feel 10's are due.

More often than not an 18 will beat that possible dealer 17 or possible bust.

Never split 10's more than once, unless you are a card counter…And only split them against a dealers 4, 5, 6, and 7.

Do you know that the 4 is the biggest bust card for the dealer? Not the 6.

I have played this game long enough to know there are tricks of the trade which some how, ensure the flow in favor of the house is preserved.

If you see this pattern in one shoe and then another, call it a night.

I do not card count and mostly follow the basic strategy as a guide. But I am also a gambler and do as my gutt tells me.

Overall, I am better than break even at the tables.

Boy, I don’t even know where to start with this one.



I love it when people say that they’ve ready everything. It’s always true, isn’t it?



Nope. Basic Strategy was calculated using a full combinatorial analysis. All possible events were considered and properly weighted. There were no assumptions made. Didn’t you read the Baldwin [et al] paper? What about their book? What about Braun’s extensive work? Peter Griffin’s book maybe? Anything?

Oh, that’s right, you’ve ready everything. I forgot.



Again, there were no assumptions. However, if you’re referring to variance then it was taken into consideration. Although standard BS is optimized to maximize EV, there are risk-averse strategies that conform to each players individual certainty equivalence. I’m sure you’ve “intensely read” all about those as well.



That’s a pretty dumb play to make. For every time you split those nines you will lose 80 cents of every $10 bet. Luckily that hand doesn’t come up too often, but splitting it too often can increase the house edge by .26%. Now you can start to see how a few bad plays will have you losing the same 3% as the rest of the table! Even when "tens are due" this is a bad play.



Actually, a 17 will always beat a dealer 17 or bust. Unfortunately, that 18 will lose to the dealer’s 19, 20, 21, or a player bust. I’m sure you already know how often the player will bust a 9 trying to reach 18.



If you are not a card counter then you should never split tens. It is one of the costliest moves you can make, other than doubling a soft 11! And even a card counter will only split them against a 4,5 or 6, never a 7.

Between splitting 9's vs. 7 and tens vs. 4,5,6 and 7 you have increased the house edge from -0.66% to over -1.67%. You're more than halfway to that 3% house edge already!



Actually, the biggest bust card is the 5 (43% in single-deck), although it gravitates to the 6 (both at about 42%) in multi-deck games. The 4 is always third.



Oh, so you’re a “flow of the card” player. That explains a lot.



My mistake, you’re actually a “streak/pattern” player. Maybe you’re not sure which you are. Either strategy is a losing one, so feel free to alternate as your hunches dictate.



That’s a prefect description of a gambler: Someone who thinks they know how to play but often changes their mind.:laugh:



How far back do your playing records go? Or do you not keep records but “estimate” that you are “probably” ahead?

As you said, you’ve played this game for “a long time” and know all the “tricks of the trade” so there is obviously nothing that I can teach you (that you would be willing to learn). Feel free to use any strategy you like. After all, it is your money and I have no business telling you how to bet it. Just be aware that it won’t last very long if you continue to gamble based on hunches and bad strategy decisions.

-Sonny-

P.S. - When you said that you have ready everything, did you mean everything by John Patrick?