Representative SD ranges requsted

D

Dopple

Well-Known Member
#1
#1
Being a good group member of sound mind and body I hereby request any member to offer what they would consider to be fair and factual number for there SD either from actual play or a simulation.

I understand from my math ventures that it is roughly 1.15 but that can vary widely.

I have learned it could not be as high as 3.6 but could it be 2.4?

I am really not as dumb as I may seem and as you can tell I am tenacious.

Yes I did the post on the 3.6 SD over on Verite but I decided to get a fresh start with this post.

I would guess it ranges from 1 to 2 for decent AP players.

( I know the part about the SQRT(hands) avg bet )
 
C

Canceler

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
Here’s the result of a billion-round KO sim done with PowerSim. You’ll need to get out your trusty calculator to take the square root of the numbers in the Variance column to get your sample of SDs. (Since it's KO, the True Count is really the running count.)

Code: 
True Count:    Frequency:       Win Rate:       Variance:
-20:            196792284      -.0151202        1.370338
-19:            39503946       -.0121921        1.362417
-18:            41118391       -.0116878        1.361475
-17:            41555076       -.0111906        1.360974
-16:            41622131       -.0106964        1.36042
-15:            41366318       -.010344         1.359438
-14:            40965403       -.009885         1.358456
-13:            40525787       -.0098424        1.356807
-12:            39934708       -.0090755        1.35537
-11:            39207887       -.0080052        1.353535
-10:            38308351       -.007133         1.351832
-9:             37229903       -.0062987        1.349501
-8:             35970713       -.0049887        1.347432
-7:             34561256       -.0036426        1.344494
-6:             32787892       -.0025088        1.34136
-5:             31203398       -.0014145        1.338435
-4:             29184058        .000685         1.335233
-3:             26999574        .0022969        1.33217
-2:             24790611        .0040893        1.328614
-1:             22445861        .0058827        1.324591
 0:             20109459        .0072142        1.322742
 1:             17809709        .0095174        1.340046
 2:             15485830        .0117836        1.334966
 3:             13482654        .0142302        1.353874
 4:             11478999        .0165063        1.364066
 5:             9621821         .019678         1.357211
 6:             7982569         .0219863        1.342314
 7:             6497049         .0254526        1.334742
 8:             5211399         .0272904        1.328036
 9:             4113964         .0306725        1.322755
 10:            3202526         .0326675        1.315241
 11:            2452434         .0370991        1.309031
 12:            1844235         .0382367        1.300817
 13:            1369509         .0417493        1.294855
 14:            999033          .043923         1.287892
 15:            718483          .0472266        1.283393
 16:            506109          .0494676        1.273423
 17:            352630          .0486856        1.266512
 18:            239965          .0560019        1.261903
 19:            161377          .0588591        1.256754
 20:            286698          .0593081        1.239115
 
D

Dopple

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
No great range

Okay so it is not such a huge range.

If we take 1.4 to be conservative time the square root of 642 rounds played at an average bet of 27 dollars you get about $957, would that not be one SD for the time played at the above variance for the above average bet?

If that is true 2 SD = $1915 so if I won 2965 in 642 rounds with an average bet of 27 and total initial bets of 17125 a win rate of 6% or 1025 (6% of 17125) plus 2 SD @ 1915 makes 2965. Since it is unlikely one is ever over 2 SD away from his EV then my EV is about 6% on the Verite game which is just like the game I play in real life I am one serious bad player with like bad meaning good.

I dont blame some of you if you are getting annoyed by my posts but I am just digging for an answer because this question is on my mind.

Where is my math wrong?

I have not seen any black swans in the neighborhood lately?
 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
Wasn't this well-covered by the late great Peter A. Griffin in The Theory of Blackjack or his other, lesser known 1991 work, "Extra Stuff" ?

Here is a few amusing tidbits from Extra Stuff:

See:

http://product.half.ebay.com/Extra-Stuff/506675&tg=info

http://product.half.ebay.com/The-Theory-of-Blackjack/1117262&tg=info
**************************************************
If you have a hand totaling 20 what dealer up-card do you most want to see ?

Did you guess six [6] or five [5] ?

A dealer eight [8] maximizes your expectation.
**************************************************
Thought provoking:
You are playing Single Deck with Surrender.
The dealer flips up a Face Card - and you are dealt two hands;
each is a pair of sevens (7-7). How do you play your hands?

Hint: The hands are not played the same.

The answer, is revealed on pp. 157-158
**************************************************

Imagine you have a pair of 8's and the dealer exposes her hand, revealing a pair of 9's.
Which side do you prefer ? Think about it for a moment.

Quelle Bizarre ! Wonder of wonders !

IF this is Single Deck the player has an e.v. of + 2.69%.
IF this is four decks the splitting expectation is - 0.20%
 
A

assume_R

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
Canceler said:
Here’s the result of a billion-round KO sim done with PowerSim. You’ll need to get out your trusty calculator to take the square root of the numbers in the Variance column to get your sample of SDs. (Since it's KO, the True Count is really the running count.)

Code: 
True Count:    Frequency:       Win Rate:       Variance:
-20:            196792284      -.0151202        1.370338
-19:            39503946       -.0121921        1.362417
-18:            41118391       -.0116878        1.361475
-17:            41555076       -.0111906        1.360974
-16:            41622131       -.0106964        1.36042
-15:            41366318       -.010344         1.359438
-14:            40965403       -.009885         1.358456
-13:            40525787       -.0098424        1.356807
-12:            39934708       -.0090755        1.35537
-11:            39207887       -.0080052        1.353535
-10:            38308351       -.007133         1.351832
-9:             37229903       -.0062987        1.349501
-8:             35970713       -.0049887        1.347432
-7:             34561256       -.0036426        1.344494
-6:             32787892       -.0025088        1.34136
-5:             31203398       -.0014145        1.338435
-4:             29184058        .000685         1.335233
-3:             26999574        .0022969        1.33217
-2:             24790611        .0040893        1.328614
-1:             22445861        .0058827        1.324591
 0:             20109459        .0072142        1.322742
 1:             17809709        .0095174        1.340046
 2:             15485830        .0117836        1.334966
 3:             13482654        .0142302        1.353874
 4:             11478999        .0165063        1.364066
 5:             9621821         .019678         1.357211
 6:             7982569         .0219863        1.342314
 7:             6497049         .0254526        1.334742
 8:             5211399         .0272904        1.328036
 9:             4113964         .0306725        1.322755
 10:            3202526         .0326675        1.315241
 11:            2452434         .0370991        1.309031
 12:            1844235         .0382367        1.300817
 13:            1369509         .0417493        1.294855
 14:            999033          .043923         1.287892
 15:            718483          .0472266        1.283393
 16:            506109          .0494676        1.273423
 17:            352630          .0486856        1.266512
 18:            239965          .0560019        1.261903
 19:            161377          .0588591        1.256754
 20:            286698          .0593081        1.239115
Click to expand...
When he probably has his max bet out (around +4) that variance of 1.36 seems a bit high, no? Not that the sim is incorrect, but perhaps some of the index plays used aren't as RA as they should be. I usually try to keep the Var under 1.33.

As an aside, I've found the biggest contribution to variance to be soft doubles.
 
C

Canceler

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
assume_R said:
When he probably has his max bet out (around +4) that variance of 1.36 seems a bit high, no? Not that the sim is incorrect, but perhaps some of the index plays used aren't as RA as they should be. I usually try to keep the Var under 1.33.
Click to expand...
Rather than have you think I totally ignored your post, I’m going to reply even though I have nothing to say. Except that I never got into the RA thing. Maybe I should, but that’s a different topic. :)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top