blackjack avenger said:
I edited the OP to consider hi lo
2 deck game
1 deck dealt
rc of 3 so tc of 3
The above rc includes your hand of AA. Do you insure?
or
The above rc includes your hand of TT. Do you insure?
First one yes, your AA in hand means the dealer is more likely to have a T.
Second one no, your TT in hand means the dealer is less likely to have a T.
If you can't see it, think of having an A side count with the above hands.
Something interesting, the value of composition dependent insurance decreases as decks increase just like keeping an ace side count.
:joker::whip:
good cards
Just wanted to clear something up here.
Your logic is okay for ploppies who aren’t counting.
The probability of a ten being in the hole is reduced by the tens already on the table.
However, if you know the count, then use the indices.
Let’s analyze the scenario that you described.
If the TC is 3 after accounting for the two tens that you have, then take the insurance.
If the TC is 3 after accounting for the two aces that you have, then subtract the two aces from the RC (i.e. add +2 to the RC). You still take the insurance bet, but now more so.
Do you see 8’s on the table?
Did you count the 5 as 1.5 weight? Then do the math for that.
Did you neglect 7 & 9? Do the math accordingly.
Any non-ten card on the table will increase the probability of a ten being in the hole, however, if you know the count, then use the count and apply it accordingly.
By the way, I think the DD index for the insurance is slightly lower than 3. Correct?