March madness?

[blackchipjim]

Calling all odds maker out of the woodwork here and now to show thier savvy of picking the brackets. I don't bet on sports but since the lack of sports betting posts in this section how about some insight on the college playoffs. I need some winners so I can lay some money down on the pools and appear to know what I'm doing.

[kewljason]

Originally Posted by blackchipjim

Calling all odds maker out of the woodwork here and now to show thier savvy of picking the brackets. I don't bet on sports but since the lack of sports betting posts in this section how about some insight on the college playoffs. I need some winners so I can lay some money down on the pools and appear to know what I'm doing.

I am not a sports better either, blackchipjim. I know that sports betting can be beaten by those that study hard, looking at trends and key matchups inside the game, but I am not one of those that has that skill. I do bet a little nfl towards the end of the season and playoff just for fun, but there are two times a year that I wager for profit. Basically blindly wagering underdogs because the lines are out of wack and not reflective of the true situation. One of those times is the 4 NFL preseason games. Wagers that most won't even touch. What justifies the line in these games. The starters will play a quarter and the game will be decided by 2nd, 3rd stringers and players that will not even make the team. Money line wagers on the underdog have proven quite profitable over the last 4 years, although last year did not work out so well. The second such time I blindly wager underdogs is the first week in March, when teams are playing in their conference tournaments, not march madness which comes next week, but the conference tournaments which in part decide who goes to march madness. The lines are reflective of the talent level or gap between the two teams but do not take into consideration a teams heart or desire. Some teams need the game much more than others to make the NCAA tornament, while other teams are more concerned about not getting anyone hurt this last week. Add in teams that are not going to the tournament and are facing the prospect of playing their final game. For some players the final game ever, and you get teams playing way above their talent level.

I am not going to go into results, because it would be meaningless now after the fact, but anyone who has watched these games this week, knows underdogs have cleaned up! It has been a very nice week.

[MangoJ]

Originally Posted by kewljason

I am not a sports better either, blackchipjim. I know that sports betting can be beaten by those that study hard, looking at trends and key matchups inside the game, but I am not one of those that has that skill.

Bet365 have me already cut down to penny bets, after less than 10 bets.
They must be really afraid of smart sport bettors.
They take much more vig than on roulette though ... imagine you get backed off from playing roulette because you make bets on zero

[darco77]

I'll be analyzing some props prior to the tournament's start. I'll post them once I get my money down.

Does anyone know of a book (LV or online) that offers props on whether a given team will make the tournament? I could find these online up to about 3 years ago, but now they seem to have vanished.

[MangoJ]

If you could evaluate winning probabilities to the same accuracy as in blackjack, you would be billionare by now.

You can get implied probabilites from the odds of a book (that is: you can get the probabilites that the book use for setting their odds) by:

p_i = A / q_i, where 1/A = sum(j) 1 / q_j

q_i are the "odds" (in decimal format), say 2.0 for an even bet. A = 1 - vig is the ratio of total bets they plan to return to the players.
You need to sum over all outcomes in the market. For over/under bets or spreads you have only 2 outcomes. But for 1X2 markets (say soccer) you have 3 outcomes.

[darco77]

Clemson not in NCAA Tournament +400 - 2.5 units
Georgia makes NCAA Tournament +400 - .5 unit
Virginia Tech not in NCAA Tournament +400 - .5 unit

The ACC, sans NC and Duke, sucks this year. I'm praying the numbers outweigh the conference's reputation.

[darco77]

Conference USA total wins OVER .5 -135 - 10 units
Pac 10 total wins UNDER 3.5 +145 - 10 units

[moo321]

I like Ohio State, and I think Florida is the most overseeded #2. Those are the only informed opinions I have about college basketball this year.

Ohio State is very well balanced. Strong post game, multiple guards that can handle on the perimeter, good shooting guard, several strong defensive players. Only thing I worry about is how they would deal with a 7+ footer, or a team with 2 bigs. They would probably have to bring in Lauderdale, because he's the best post defender, but he would be outmatched on size. Of course, with the perimeter strength on defense, they could just double the post, or run a zone to counter it, and the other side would have to have enough 3 point shooting to take advantage.

Of course, we knew all this because they're the #1 overall seed...

[blackjack avenger]

Who should be allowed in the NCAA tournament?
1. Conference tournament champions
2. Regular season conference champions
Sometimes 1 and 2 will be the same teams, that is fine.
3. At large bids
4. Those who make the "first final four" of the NIT tournament. These teams would become the 4, #16 seeds in the NCAA tournament and they would be seeded based on how they finish in the NIT.

The above would make the regular season and the NIT matter.
The NCAA tournament would have to start later so the NIT could finish

So the NCAA tournament would be 64 teams
the NIT is 64 teams? and would be a feeder tournament for the NCAA.


March madness & april anarchy!

[kewljason]

Originally Posted by blackjack avenger

Who should be allowed in the NCAA tournament?
1. Conference tournament champions
2. Regular season conference champions
Sometimes 1 and 2 will be the same teams, that is fine.
3. At large bids
4. Those who make the "first final four" of the NIT tournament. These teams would become the 4, #16 seeds in the NCAA tournament and they would be seeded based on how they finish in the NIT.

The above would make the regular season and the NIT matter.
The NCAA tournament would have to start later so the NIT could finish

So the NCAA tournament would be 64 teams
the NIT is 64 teams? and would be a feeder tournament for the NCAA.


March madness & april anarchy!

Silly boy. You would have them playing past graduation. lol College basketball starts in early november and ends in april. I think thats long enough.

However I do think it is crazy the teams getting in. 5 teams with 14 losses? please? 7 of 11 big ten teams? 11 of 16 big east teams. Come on! at least be in the top half of your conference. lol And that includes my favorite team, Villanova. 21-11 record looks ok, 9-9 in conference 9th place and losers of 7 of last 9 games. I love ya 'cats, but no worthy of a bid IMO.