It has been a tough month. I upped my stakes and caught a bad run of cards. My bankroll is now slightly less than 70% of it's all time high. I know you are suppose to constantly resize, but I am in a spot where I am giving up a bit more than normal by going down a notch. Hopefully the next 48 hours will go well. If I dip another 2k it is back to red I guess. More than ever I am hoping for short term positive variance. Wish me luck!
Danger! Downward bet resize imminent.
- Thread starter apex
- Start date
Suppose To?
If you don't like resizing down with losses then when you win back to your last ATH, don't resize for awhile and let your bank grow some and bet a smaller fraction of kelly. Then move up slowly over time. An example, if your bank increases 50% only raise bets 25% etc. This allows you to be more conservative with your bank as it grows while increasing bets.
:joker::whip:
good cards
If you don't like resizing down with losses then when you win back to your last ATH, don't resize for awhile and let your bank grow some and bet a smaller fraction of kelly. Then move up slowly over time. An example, if your bank increases 50% only raise bets 25% etc. This allows you to be more conservative with your bank as it grows while increasing bets.
:joker::whip:
good cards
In a perfect world, this is perfect advice. And don't get me wrong - I'm NOT disagreeing with this at all. However, I would like to point out that if you have no other income it CAN reach the point where you're faced with the rhetorical question "Would you rather be hung or shot?". If your bet size drops to the point where your expectation is less than your living expenses, then the chance of tapping out can end up being greater than if you simply decided to overbet your bankroll somewhat.
Life sometimes has a way of leaving us with only unpleasant choices.... :sad:
Life sometimes has a way of leaving us with only unpleasant choices.... :sad:
Sucker, You said
…
"If your bet size drops to the point where your expectation is less than your living expenses … ."
If playing professionally, a deflating bankroll certainly requires playing for lower stakes.
If living expenses are compromised than growing the bankroll back to its former size is the #1 priority.
If at all possible, find additional funds e.g. part-time employment.
Even working 20 hrs. per week at $10-$12 per hour for a few months can make all the difference.
A frugal life-style is assumed of course.
Not to be ignored, is the psychological effects of the situation at hand.
One must maintain their emotional equilibrium and self-confidence in
the face of bad monetary swings. That is not always a simple matter,
but it is crucial to recognize and cope with..
…
"If your bet size drops to the point where your expectation is less than your living expenses … ."
If playing professionally, a deflating bankroll certainly requires playing for lower stakes.
If living expenses are compromised than growing the bankroll back to its former size is the #1 priority.
If at all possible, find additional funds e.g. part-time employment.
Even working 20 hrs. per week at $10-$12 per hour for a few months can make all the difference.
A frugal life-style is assumed of course.
Not to be ignored, is the psychological effects of the situation at hand.
One must maintain their emotional equilibrium and self-confidence in
the face of bad monetary swings. That is not always a simple matter,
but it is crucial to recognize and cope with..
Despite having no actual experience in these matters, I'm still going to agree with Flash. Arnold Snyder made the lows of being a professional counter very clear. Starting with a 15k bank, sleeping in their cars, hitting up every 99 cent meal, comp whoring like no one else. Most either ended up not having the courage to continue or had to take on part time jobs until their bankrolls could support them.
Practical wisdom from a legend.
I hope I'm not wrong here, I'll look like such a wanna-be. I am a wanna-be, but I don't won't to look like one.
Practical wisdom from a legend.
I hope I'm not wrong here, I'll look like such a wanna-be. I am a wanna-be, but I don't won't to look like one.
I wish you luck, Apex. I'm currently in the situation that you fear to be in, and let me tell ya... It sucks. Competing on a full table with every ****ing ploppy stupidly taking cards in a pos count, taking forever to make decisions, slowing the game WAY down... I'm wishing like hell to get out of this spot, and I think I NEED about 2k to get out of it... Just wanted to remind you that you could be worse off, but I hope that you maintain your green chip status and that I can join you 
Yeah, its going to happen, but you cant drop your bet size too low, or its elf defeating. Got too low and your operating expenses are too high and its not worth the effort. I have a minimum bet size that i will play to walk into a casino period, so if i dont have enough cash to place bets at that size, i wont go, and Id like to have at least 20 bets on hand for one night of playing.
If you tap out so be it, you will have had a great time, spent lots of your winnings on awesome stuff, got mad comps so forth, its hard to be lsoing as a net, you may run out of cash, but most likely only because youv already spent the money youve already won on paper.
I upped my bets for my vegas trip and busted out 11k, as a net though I still won 5k for the month, got to goto vegas, and I realy enjoyed myself all around.
Stay positive mentally and youll be fine.
If you tap out so be it, you will have had a great time, spent lots of your winnings on awesome stuff, got mad comps so forth, its hard to be lsoing as a net, you may run out of cash, but most likely only because youv already spent the money youve already won on paper.
I upped my bets for my vegas trip and busted out 11k, as a net though I still won 5k for the month, got to goto vegas, and I realy enjoyed myself all around.
Stay positive mentally and youll be fine.
Yeah staying positive is hard. I have had a pretty bad attitude recently. It just sucks getting nutted on time after time when you are favored. I have placed a lot of good bets recently, higher edge than counting. Booked a 1200 loser tonight after about 150 hands at about a 3% edge. Tomorrow is it, maybe my waterloo. 2k more and I am tapping out and stepping down a notch. If it happens it happens. I have accepted it as part of the game, but I am unhappy about it.
You are right, but those are psychological reasons, not math. For counting we rely on math, because we know math will tell us the true story.
When math tells us that overbetting will lead to ruin, can we pick a side to "let's ignore the math once in a while" ? Instead of overbetting, you can simply burn your money right away, the outcome will be the same.
Overbetting is a phase transition. The transition with stakes leading to winning and busting is razor blade sharp. Same as boiling water. You can warm up your water to a specific point. But above boiling temperature (and yes, only a slight amount) your water is all gone.
I'm sorry to tell, but if card counting will not feed you without overbetting: Burning money will not feed you also. Stop playing the game and get a job.
If there is no mathematical reason to play, playing is simple gambling.
When math tells us that overbetting will lead to ruin, can we pick a side to "let's ignore the math once in a while" ? Instead of overbetting, you can simply burn your money right away, the outcome will be the same.
Overbetting is a phase transition. The transition with stakes leading to winning and busting is razor blade sharp. Same as boiling water. You can warm up your water to a specific point. But above boiling temperature (and yes, only a slight amount) your water is all gone.
I'm sorry to tell, but if card counting will not feed you without overbetting: Burning money will not feed you also. Stop playing the game and get a job.
If there is no mathematical reason to play, playing is simple gambling.
It should also be noted that card counting as a profession exists at worst by the agreement of the casino industry, and at best, by a function of game un-beat-ability vs. player participation. The very existence of the profession, hangs by a most tenuous thread. It has only existed as a profession for the shortest of times, say, from the 1960's to the present day, and there is no guarantee of its future existence. If for any reason, a decrease in game-beat-ability no longer means a decrease in player participation, or if casinos arbitrarily opt to make their games uncountable, the card counting profession will come to a sudden and complete halt.
For the above stated reason, as said in these pages again and again, it is most important that card counting professionals rely on more than card counting skills for their existence, else they might someday find themselves becoming professional purveyors of Big Macs and Quarter Pounders. The logical solution is either to expand one's advantage play capabilities (hole carding, shuffle tracking, etc.), or develop other skill sets, unrelated to advantage play, which can come into play either as a supplement to AP income or as fall back employment in the event that card counting no longer provides sufficient, or any, income. There are no limits other than one's own abilities and desires-- dealer, pit boss, tradesman, teacher, accountant, manager, salesperson-- the only requirement is not putting off whatever preparation is needed until it's too late.
In a simple word, Diversify, and in even simpler words, Don't put all your eggs in one basket, Dummy.
For the above stated reason, as said in these pages again and again, it is most important that card counting professionals rely on more than card counting skills for their existence, else they might someday find themselves becoming professional purveyors of Big Macs and Quarter Pounders. The logical solution is either to expand one's advantage play capabilities (hole carding, shuffle tracking, etc.), or develop other skill sets, unrelated to advantage play, which can come into play either as a supplement to AP income or as fall back employment in the event that card counting no longer provides sufficient, or any, income. There are no limits other than one's own abilities and desires-- dealer, pit boss, tradesman, teacher, accountant, manager, salesperson-- the only requirement is not putting off whatever preparation is needed until it's too late.
In a simple word, Diversify, and in even simpler words, Don't put all your eggs in one basket, Dummy.
Thanks for all the responses. I hope my posts didn't come off as whining, just wanted to share a story with those who are interested. I am feeling better today. Snapped an eight session losing streak with a small win. Conditions weren't good for my game of choice so I worked on some other advanced strategies as Alsan suggested.
*If this gets too hot for public discussion let me know and I'll delete it.
A dealer was exposing the bottom card as he took the double decks out of the ASM. I have been practicing my cut estimation at home frequently and decided to give it a try. I had the cut card and saw a queen of hearts. I started out trying to cut it to my buddy on the first round but they were sweating my 9 to 12 card cuts and making me cut deeper, so I shot for 17 hoping to catch it my self off the top of the 2nd round (I was 1st base.) My cut was pretty good but I thought I was at 18. The 1st round finished and I was about to be dealt the 17th card. I decided to bet 5 units even though the count was negative and I was thinking 18. Sure enough I caught the babe! I just giggle when stuff like this works, was a good time to be off my one. Next round I spy a Jack of clubs. 3rd base cuts it, I guess it is about 44 cards deep. Several rounds later card #45 busts the dealer and we still haven't seen my Jack. I decided to take a 10 unit poke at it. BOOM! Got it and another jack for 20. It was as happy as I have been playing in awhile. Didn't see any aces but I know what to do in the future. I like this play a lot, but only about a 3rd as much as I like seeing the dark spots on the corner of some cards peeking out in handheld games. I found a dealer I plan to ABUSE next time conditions are right.
As far as bet resizing goes, I have taken a half step down. I am going to try to get some of my higher bets in by going with a friend and sharing trip bankrolls, and finding even higher edge plays. I play between half and full Kelly with cluncky resizing. Mango and Avenger, I appreciate your thoughts. You are correct that it is better to play smaller kelly fractions and resize constantly, I do think that is good advice. For me and my umpteen thousand dollar bankroll, I am going to choose a higher ROR and expected return rather than a more assured long term bankroll preservation. Blackjack/advantage play doesn't support me, my bankroll is renewable (planning to add 10k in November), and I am just not interested in playing much lower. True, it is approaching "gambling," but it is gambling with a nice edge at worst. If and when my bankroll hits 40k, 100k and beyond I will be more and more careful and plan to play strick 1/4 or 1/8 Kelly. Farm, Ferret, and SP thanks for the support.
Hide your weak dealers!
-Apex
*If this gets too hot for public discussion let me know and I'll delete it.
A dealer was exposing the bottom card as he took the double decks out of the ASM. I have been practicing my cut estimation at home frequently and decided to give it a try. I had the cut card and saw a queen of hearts. I started out trying to cut it to my buddy on the first round but they were sweating my 9 to 12 card cuts and making me cut deeper, so I shot for 17 hoping to catch it my self off the top of the 2nd round (I was 1st base.) My cut was pretty good but I thought I was at 18. The 1st round finished and I was about to be dealt the 17th card. I decided to bet 5 units even though the count was negative and I was thinking 18. Sure enough I caught the babe! I just giggle when stuff like this works, was a good time to be off my one. Next round I spy a Jack of clubs. 3rd base cuts it, I guess it is about 44 cards deep. Several rounds later card #45 busts the dealer and we still haven't seen my Jack. I decided to take a 10 unit poke at it. BOOM! Got it and another jack for 20. It was as happy as I have been playing in awhile. Didn't see any aces but I know what to do in the future. I like this play a lot, but only about a 3rd as much as I like seeing the dark spots on the corner of some cards peeking out in handheld games. I found a dealer I plan to ABUSE next time conditions are right.
As far as bet resizing goes, I have taken a half step down. I am going to try to get some of my higher bets in by going with a friend and sharing trip bankrolls, and finding even higher edge plays. I play between half and full Kelly with cluncky resizing. Mango and Avenger, I appreciate your thoughts. You are correct that it is better to play smaller kelly fractions and resize constantly, I do think that is good advice. For me and my umpteen thousand dollar bankroll, I am going to choose a higher ROR and expected return rather than a more assured long term bankroll preservation. Blackjack/advantage play doesn't support me, my bankroll is renewable (planning to add 10k in November), and I am just not interested in playing much lower. True, it is approaching "gambling," but it is gambling with a nice edge at worst. If and when my bankroll hits 40k, 100k and beyond I will be more and more careful and plan to play strick 1/4 or 1/8 Kelly. Farm, Ferret, and SP thanks for the support.
Hide your weak dealers!
-Apex