Dark skies ahead

My EV is coming out at about 3 units per hour and I just had a sharp jump in positive variance to net about 120 units in three hours. This is one of my best little spikes in over 200 hours of play.

I see it as a mirror reflection of what is looming on the dark side for me.

Would it not be safe to conclude that all deviations from EV over time are mirrored in length, magnitude and severity in both positive and negative directions.

Looks like I'm skewed.

Past results are not indicative of future results, I'm sure you've read that numerous times. Just becase you've done well does not mean you have to lose.

Generally our results trend toward our ev but that doesn't mean it has to or it will or how long it takes to get there.

Return volley

Isn't a sim just like taking billions of past results and using it to predict within a very close certainty what the expected range of future results will be?

There won't necessarily be a short time with a lot of negative variance to balance out the short time with positive variance. It will balance out over time, but the amount of money and period of time are inversely proportional to each other.

You might hit a crazy losing streak after spreading to 2 hands, max betting both, splitting both, double down on all four, and then proceeding to lose 4 max bets in one hand. Repeat a few times in one session and your variance has evened out very quickly.

However, you might just run slightly worse than expected for a few months. Instead of 3 units an hour, maybe you only make 1 an hour. Still a profit, but not the projected profit. Over enough time, this would balance out your dramatic winning streak.


Both of the previous examples are the extremes at either end of possibility for your total profit to even out to withing 1 standard deviation of you EV. Neither are likely, but all possibilities within those two extremes could occur to balance out your streak.

Remember, don't think in streaks. Just because you won a lot more than you should have doesn't mean you are GOING to lose next time, you might even win a few more times. But eventually, the number of units per hour will balance out to within one SD of your projected EV. Fast is heartbreaking, slow is aggravating.

Honestly, I prefer a very fast unlucky streak that costs me a good chunk versus a slow slightly unlucky streak that ends up around the same place, but takes way too long to finish.

Same Old Same Old

or

Past performance is no indication of future returns.

Every time you play you face whatever EV and variance dictates for the game you are playing. What are you going to do stop playing?

:joker::whip:
good cards

You're conflating the Law of Large Numbers and the Gambler's Fallacy and thus committing the latter.

Eventually your results will come closer to your EV in terms of percentage of action/hours. However the _amount_ that you are above/below your EV will tend to stay the same -- thus if you are currently above your EV by $X, you should "expect" to stay above it by $X, but the LoLN says that eventually your EV overshadows $X.

Round in circles

I was in a friendly chat about this before and I agree you are right but I still would say if you are above your EV you are more likely to win at less than your EV until you come down to that win rate (EV). With all factors equal.

Please dont make me go back to the voodoo lounge, that place give me the creeps.

Hate to say it but you're on your way there! What logical basis do you have to believe that you should tend back toward your EV?

People often think, just because they are 100 units ahead of EV will mean in long run they are doomed to lose those 100 units again - because in long run you will meet expectation value.

The true part is: You will meet expectation value on average. This means, your lifetime EV until now might be 10k units. You have 10100 units, so you are 100 units ahead (101% of EV). What is the projection for the next timespan ?
Your EV for the same timespan in future, given that you now have 10100, will be 20100 units. You are expected to be ahead of those exact 100 units.
The only thing which will change - and thats all about long run - is that your average is lower. It will not stay at 101%, but it will drop to 100.5% of EV.

In the long run your 100 units will be meet EV at 100% - but you are still 100 units ahead in total.


Same is true for losses. If you lose 100 on a week, - well you lost 100 units. Nothing is going to bring those units back - not even long run. Because future doesn't care what you lost last week. The only thing long run says, that those lost 100 units will play a very small percentage in your total gain or loss. But they are still 100 units.

I Agree 100%

With all stated except the OP.

Here is another way to perhaps think about it.

A player starts his career and in the short term he is 1g ahead in an hour, way ahead of expectation.

Going forward he faces the EV and variance for whatever game he is playing.

So, lets say his ev is $20 an hour. What does the next 1,000 hours hold?

A $20,000 win + the $1,000

After 10,000 hours?
$200,000 + $1,000
This is how that $1,000 gets absorbed into expectation, over time that huge positive variance gets swallowed by continuous play. This is the very important point. One does not lose back wins, it's those peaks and valley's get smoothed out because of all the other peaks and valley's.

The same thing would go for an early heavy loss.

So keep playing, you should still win it's just variance smooths out those positive or negative spikes.

No reputable sim talks about inputting your current wins and losses in order to determine what to expect moving forward because the past does not matter. The cards have no memory, just like the dice or roulette ball.

:joker::whip:
No Variance

Only in an infinite universe. If the universe truly is infinite, as some have theorized, on another planet within a few quintillion light years from here there is another card counter called "Dopple" on a site just like this (except the background is chartreuse instead of green*) has results mirrored from yours, negative.

Being you can't get to that planet, there is no reason to assume you will ever see that negative swing. What if we erased your memory so that you didn't know you had the enjoyable variance? Would you still expect the downswing? Now... how do you know we didn't already erase your memory and you already had the downswing, and just don't remember it?

But if it really bothers you too much, try this: play on your simulator until you get a huge downswing. There, there's your downswing, good thing we weren't using real money, right? Now get out there and win some more.

* (Or is chartreuse green? I don't know, my closed hetero mind misses the point of any color beyond the Crayola 8. All the rest is just a tutti-fruti blur to me.)

I would rather have a bottle-in-front-of-me than a frontal lobotomy.

Thanks for the feed.

When I started reading this I thought, this ape has gotten into the corn liquor :laugh: but as I continued I found that he hit the nail on the head as usual.