Running up a Bankroll with small buy ins.

I just ran some math on a situation I'm likely to actually encounter. For those of us who can't actually put together a fixed bankroll with a low RoR, small affordable buy ins played double up or bust seem to be an answer.

To run up a bankroll using this method, I used QFIT's goal calculator to get the percentages of doubling before busting starting at 20 units to 40 units.

For one 20 unit buy in (very shallow) you expect to double it ~%53 of the time. From 40 units to 80 (assuming a previous success and you don't withdraw from your winnings), you expect to double it ~%55 of the time. From 80-160, 71%, from 160-320, 85.56%, from 320-640 %85, finally from 640-1280 (not a bad starting bankroll if you plan on playing fixed) 97.24%

It works out that turning 20 units into 1280 units has about a 10% chance of working. While this is a small percent of the time, it obviously works out to be a positive expectation.

What this implies for those who wish to build a good fixed bankroll from small buy ins is actually promising. Assuming you can afford to lose your buy in (why did you gamble with it if you couldn't?), it will take about 10 tries to run up a good working bankroll with a low RoR.

Not advisable. [severe understatement]
:whip:

Danger, Danger

You need to look at trip ror.

What are the lowest stakes you can play in your casino? It will probably be near play all.
How long do you intend to play a session?
Then you need to know the trip ror, it really needs to be very very low ror. The reason being if you cannot finish a positive shoe you have greatly hurt yourself or cannot double after a split.

For 16 hrs of play you need about half a total bank, for 8 hrs I would guess about a third of a complete bank.

Let's say your session is 8 hrs, then you need to also know
7 hr
6 hr
5 hr
4 hr
3 hr
2 hr
1 hr session banks

As you play hrs, if losing you need to make sure you have enough money to keep playing. IF YOU DO NOT HAVE THE MONEY NEEDED FOR A TRIP YOU MUST STOP PLAYING, THIS IS VERRRRRY IMPORTANT FOR LONG TERM SUCCESS.

Every time you have a complete trip bank, you can crash it against the tables and perhaps keep playing.

Once you are playing at stakes that is more then twice what you can make at a job, then don't raise stakes until you have a very low risk of drawdown. You don't want to get knocked out of the game. At least 1/4 kelly to 1/8 kelly resizing.

Car expenses about 50 cents per mile, so be wary of long drives and short sessions.

bueno cards:joker::whip:

Bankroll Size

So many times here on BJINFO people ask, "Can I make anything with "X" bankroll", "I only have THIS much for a bank", "How much of a bankroll do I need to... ". The standard answer from blackjack experts is always much lower than what I myself consider a realistic bankroll.


Most people fail at this and one of the reasons is a limited bankroll. There's quite a few other reasons but let's focus on this one for the time being, since it's the thread topic. Most people at some point get some very rude awakenings to just how far that roller coaster can go up and down and the only way to survive it is to have enough money behind you. If you are questioning the size of your bankroll, that tells me it isn't enough. If you are trying to think of ways to parlay your bankroll via unconventional means, you might be in trouble.

I saw one reputable poster on here state that "$1000.00 is a sufficient bankroll to work with or get started with a few years back (because I guess if you are that good or something?)" I can't recall what I said about that but I had to question that low a number for even $1 or $2 min. blackjack.

The truth is you need a bankroll that is enough for you to never have to worry about the size of your bankroll as being short of the mark! Sure, a few thousand might be enough to grind away at a $2-$5 min game but if you play green with a 1-10 spread, your individual playing sessions can have ups and downs of $2000-$3000 quite easily! Have enough money behind you that you never worry about a loss or even losses in a row because it happens.

The main point of this article was not for career play or for a consistent win rate. It was to point out to ability of a person that is a recreational counter than CANNOT set aside a real working bankroll can build up with a high amount of variance 1 in 10 times with a 20 unit buy in. Mathematically, you want a high bankroll to stand big swings which happen. However, many people in my age group can't even grasp the concept of having 5 thousand dollars, much less being able to set aside that much cash for a low return. Having a set buy in as your initial bankroll playing double or nothing allows you to at least attempt to build a bankroll over time for a minimal cost. The point is risk avoidance or trip bankroll. The point is you can't build even a fair bankroll, you have a local store, but you can spare about 20 units once a week to once a month. You double, you keep it all in your "working roll" you bust, you try again when you can no big deal. %10 of the time, you will be able to, over time, work this small buy in strategy into an actual bankroll.

For recreational players not playing for income who have a local store, this is a good strategy in my opinion. Setting aside that much cash is hard on anyone, but most people can spare 100 bucks every once in a while.

A lot of people just can't set aside a real bankroll, this is definitely a viable option for those playing low stakes who want to play/practice, but just can't have a real bankroll to support that particular game. It is high volatility, but only with money you can afford to lose at the time. It's like short stacking in poker, you have a better chance to double up than to bust, but you still will bust a large amount of the time. In the long run, that can run up a bankroll by only risking a small amount of money at a time.

Losing the buy in (which is your working bankroll) doesn't affect you at all. You just lost that session, it's gonna happen. You will show a profit doing this and can actual build up a bankroll doing this. This wasn't a question, just the math behind a potential strategy for people in a similar situation.

Running the actual EV calculation goes like this. ((9/10)*-20)+((1/10)*1260)=108

Flash reply

Flash laid it out nicely in just two words! "Not advisable". Flash KNOWS! He does not go to the casino "light" and will bring to the tune of a $25,000 trip bank to play a $25 min game. He also lives farther away from the casinos than I do so what the heck. Ask him and he will tell you to have a bank over six figures minimum and shoot for an about zero ROR, and I agree with him.

What you are talking about is essentially recreational play though. That's a different animal and you should go with whatever you are comfortable with, although 20 units can be gone in less than 10 minutes. If you live not far from the casino that's not a big deal and you are doing it all for experience and to have fun with it anyway.

You'd be way better off playing matchplays on a $1k bank.

KUDOS to Tarzan and blackjack avenger

"Words of Wisdom"; and as I like to say … "Forewarned is forearmed."

I suppose this sums up what I kept trying to hit, but rambled over incoherently as in a rather odd sort of daze. For a recreational player who counts as a hobby, but maybe would move up to more serious play if they happened to mass a bankroll, this "strategy" could be considered.

As far as my own play goes, I've ran some 20 unit practice sessions at home, and yeah it can go very fast. I can switch to penny or nickel VP at this point which is close to break even at least. Entertain myself for a dollar so I don't waste a half an hour drive :laugh: .

Quit trying to reinvent the wheel. It's not going to happen and you'll just waste more time trying it.

We Have A Bingo!!!!!

No just Bingo

Brian
A half hour drive to the casino?
That is 1 hr round trip?
That will cost you $30 just to get to the casino.

So if you can play a $10 an hr game for 3 hrs, you will break even. Actually, no, with a break even game one goes broke!

Get any kind of job and you will be better off.

Three people have now warned you away from your thoughts, as others read they will join the chorus, but will you hear the music?

My first post regarded someone who perhaps has $2,500 and can add a couple hundred a session or so. When you talked about playing with $100 I sighed!!!!!

:joker::whip:
Not good cards to you, you are not ready
Good job hunting

That leads to two tenets of AP: 1) Don't gamble with money that you can't afford to lose and 2) There must be a bigger edge somewhere else.

As others have pointed out, playing for a profit is probably not going to be possible at such a low level. If you want to do it for entertainment then the FAQ thread has some tips on maximizing a small bankroll:

Q: I didn’t realize that I needed such a big bankroll to count cards. Can I still play with a smaller bankroll?
A: Sure, as long as you understand the risks you are taking. If you are able to add some money to your bankroll regularly then you can play a little more aggressively. Here are some tips on playing with a small bankroll and supplementing your bankroll:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=5655
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=5939
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=9604
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=9258

-Sonny-