certainty equivalent

[blackjack avenger]

Does bank preservation matter?
Kelly 50% chance of losing half
&
10% chance of losing 90%. Will table minimums bite you? Will it be worth it to continue?
With full kelly the long run may be beyond one's career length.

Off the top of my head less then 1% chance of losing half with 1/4 Kelly

Overbetting Kelly is so damaging that with human limitations one should not get near it.

[blackjacktilt]

Ok, maybe I'm just a newb when it comes to counting (only a few years in with little success) or maybe I am not capable of understanding this, but here's my take... for what it's worth to you math wizards...

Why? why go this far? You simply have to have the bankroll to play this game. Individual or team, you need a bankroll and disciplined / structured bets in accordance with said bankroll. You start spreading at a TC of +2 in units.

Team play is a little different, but obviously requires a bigger bankroll than solo play. You are simply getting you're big money in when you have the advantage and getting out when you don't.

Is the reason why most AP's fail is because they overthink what counting is, or is it because they only think like the above?

[tthree]

Originally Posted by blackjacktilt

Ok, maybe I'm just a newb when it comes to counting (only a few years in with little success) or maybe I am not capable of understanding this, but here's my take... for what it's worth to you math wizards...

Why? why go this far? You simply have to have the bankroll to play this game. Individual or team, you need a bankroll and disciplined / structured bets in accordance with said bankroll. You start spreading at a TC of +2 in units.

Team play is a little different, but obviously requires a bigger bankroll than solo play. You are simply getting you're big money in when you have the advantage and getting out when you don't.

Is the reason why most AP's fail is because they overthink what counting is, or is it because they only think like the above?

Most fail because they over bet their bankroll and go bust. Other reasons are they imagine they have skills they don't and they play crappy rules and bad penetration. Many see all index plays as equal for their counting system. Some indices are based on match ups with such a weak correlation for their count that little gain in EV is realized until well after the index is exceeded but it doubles your risk for a tiny gain in EV(ie you win your bet less often but with a higher reward so they almost balance each other out). Many soft doubles and splits fall in this category. A small gain in EV without a correlation strong enough for it to be much more than a very rough estimate that it is actually the right play. Other soft doubles are very strong plays after the index is exceeded. They have a high correlation to your count. It helps to understand all these types of things for your match ups.

[blackjacktilt]

Originally Posted by tthree

Most fail because they over bet their bankroll and go bust. Other reasons are they imagine they have skills they don't and they play crappy rules and bad penetration. Many see all index plays as equal for their counting system. Some indices are based on match ups with such a weak correlation for their count that little gain in EV is realized until well after the index is exceeded but it doubles your risk for a tiny gain in EV(ie you win your bet less often but with a higher reward so they almost balance each other out). Many soft doubles and splits fall in this category. A small gain in EV without a correlation strong enough for it to be much more than a very rough estimate that it is actually the right play. Other soft doubles are very strong plays after the index is exceeded. They have a high correlation to your count. It helps to understand all these types of things for your match ups.

So what you're saying is many fail because they don't have the discipline. They are incapable of understanding the small edge they have over time. But do things like this topic help these people? I don't think so, I think it would make these types more confident in the abilities they think they possess, or it would totally discourage them. I don't see counting cards as that complicated as long as you realize you must follow a simple system. You bet in units with the TC, you don't gamble and only utilize certain indices. I respect the fact that most AP's take counting to another level. You are only gaining a small edge over time, and need a bankroll to conquer variance. IMHO

[Richard Munchkin]

Counting cards is easy. Taking money out of casinos is hard.