Assessing Penetration

[bj bob]

One of the predominant terms used in this forum is that of penetration. I would assume that all counters and most BS players know its definition, but what I have never seen talked about is how is it calculated on an "ad hoc" basis, i.e. One walks into a casino for a night of BJ ready to count cards and make hundreds and is mentally prepared for "battle". He checks the table mins., the number of players, the game rules and the pit action. The only important thing left to do is get a fix on deck/shoe pen. I suppose one may stand back in a shoe game and observe one dealt shoe and estimate within a 1/2 deck or so the correct estimated penetration for that table with that dealer. Only thing is, will the next dealer come within that same range? Do you have to repeat the process with the next dealer
On a perhaps more critical level, wouldn't the pen. calculation need to be more precise (to the very card) on a 1D game and what is a normal variance with the same dealer, maybe 3-5 cards? I know many of the clubs use the rule of 6, but even that would vary somewhat by table activity, player leaving mid-deck etc. Just want some common sense feedback.

[Cass]

Originally Posted by bj bob

One of the predominant terms used in this forum is that of penetration. I would assume that all counters and most BS players know its definition, but what I have never seen talked about is how is it calculated on an "ad hoc" basis, i.e. One walks into a casino for a night of BJ ready to count cards and make hundreds and is mentally prepared for "battle". He checks the table mins., the number of players, the game rules and the pit action. The only important thing left to do is get a fix on deck/shoe pen. I suppose one may stand back in a shoe game and observe one dealt shoe and estimate within a 1/2 deck or so the correct estimated penetration for that table with that dealer. Only thing is, will the next dealer come within that same range? Do you have to repeat the process with the next dealer
On a perhaps more critical level, wouldn't the pen. calculation need to be more precise (to the very card) on a 1D game and what is a normal variance with the same dealer, maybe 3-5 cards? I know many of the clubs use the rule of 6, but even that would vary somewhat by table activity, player leaving mid-deck etc. Just want some common sense feedback.

at the casinos i play at pene is dealer dependent, but they general will all be within half a deck of each other. some joints are just better than others. You should be able to judge within a quarter deck or so where they are cutting it. Its really easy on a DD game... 50% vs. 75%. Tonight i was playing a 6 deck shoe after the cut card was placed i took a look at it and it was damn near 1/3rd the way from the back! 66% 2decks! terrible!! Only reason i was there was for triple comp night!

[bj bob]

Sounds like you're estimating the shoe pen. by sight which I thought. That should be close enough for 6/8D play. I was wondering though, shouldn't you actually count down a few decks in 1D,2D games to get a better fix. A ten card variance in DD would be the dif. between 60 and 70% pen. and make it a whole new ball game.

[Automatic Monkey]

Originally Posted by bj bob

Sounds like you're estimating the shoe pen. by sight which I thought. That should be close enough for 6/8D play. I was wondering though, shouldn't you actually count down a few decks in 1D,2D games to get a better fix. A ten card variance in DD would be the dif. between 60 and 70% pen. and make it a whole new ball game.

I agree, DD is probably the game where this is the biggest issue. Just walking around the pit can tell you what you are up against in a shoe game, and SD games use a pretty reliable rule of 6/7... although if you find a dealer dealing RO7 in a RO6 place... don't leave the table, bring a slot bucket to whizz in, it's that big of a difference.

[bj bob]

AutoMonk, You cite the Ro6/Ro7 rule which I figure to be about a 5-7 card difference.Is that about right? Also, could you explain the formula for those newbie "viewers" out there? thanks, BJ