I spent several days in Tunica recently. One day I ended my play +$300. I won by playing bs and leaving the table/casino $25 to $75 ahead. The next day I lost all $300....no luck....all day. The day I lost there was lots of bad play......one player always split 10s....one player refused to hit a hand of a 2 and an 8 =10...the dealor wanted him to hit...another player tried to explain...he refused! Ken, u said bad play could help as well as hurt. I think I agree. MY QUESTION : what u mean is that the ramdom position of the cards has nothing to do with crazy play or expert play,,,u get what comes up.......correct? Now it could mess-up a favorable run...correct? One player insisted that 3rd base had to take a card if no one else did at the table so that the dealor would be messed up. This is crazy...right??????
Question 2 Ken Smith & others w/experience
- Thread starter BLUE
- Start date
I think that the best way that I have heard it explained is this. Any player that makes "bad" plays will make "bad" plays that hurt you as often as they make "bad" plays that help you. There is no way to know which cards are going to be dealt until they are dealt. It is RANDOM 
Anyone that would claim that third base absolutley has to take a card in the above described situation is dead wrong. They would have to know EXACTLY what card is going to be played next. That card could help or hurt and you don't know which until it is turned over. Unfortunately for this person someone has given him some very bad advice and at this point he will probably go to his grave believing he is correct. I have a father in law kind of like that...if someone at the table makes one mistake (according to his rules) He will speak up, leave the table or both...and he is proud of it
Anyone that would claim that third base absolutley has to take a card in the above described situation is dead wrong. They would have to know EXACTLY what card is going to be played next. That card could help or hurt and you don't know which until it is turned over. Unfortunately for this person someone has given him some very bad advice and at this point he will probably go to his grave believing he is correct. I have a father in law kind of like that...if someone at the table makes one mistake (according to his rules) He will speak up, leave the table or both...and he is proud of it
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Blue,
What Blackdog said. The only way someone else's play can effect you is if you let it. I think some people truely believe that bad (or good) play does alter your chances at the table. Others just need someone on which to lay the blame for the inherent variance of the deck of cards. Play YOUR game and try to enjoy the play of others for it's entertainment value! :cry:
As for third base....I like third base. When it tilts someone at the table when "I take the dealer's bust card," I make voodoo signs and toss chicken bones on the table and read them before declaring my action! That either gets me into a fight or runs the loudmouth away from the table :laugh:
What Blackdog said. The only way someone else's play can effect you is if you let it. I think some people truely believe that bad (or good) play does alter your chances at the table. Others just need someone on which to lay the blame for the inherent variance of the deck of cards. Play YOUR game and try to enjoy the play of others for it's entertainment value! :cry:
As for third base....I like third base. When it tilts someone at the table when "I take the dealer's bust card," I make voodoo signs and toss chicken bones on the table and read them before declaring my action! That either gets me into a fight or runs the loudmouth away from the table :laugh:
I would guess that 90% of blackjack players believe in this voodoo that third base affects everyone else at the table. It's nonsense. Just ignore all those comments, play solid basic strategy, and you'll do the best you can. How others at your table play cannot affect your chances, no matter what they do.
Other Players at the table
To me it makes sense that the play of others at the table do not affect your chances for multiple deck blackjack... but I believe that in a single deck or even double deck that making the right play is important. Here's an example:
Let's say a single deck has a +8 true count and everyone at the table is dealt stiffs including the dealer who has a 5 up. Now lets assume all the players at the table hit their stiffs, there is a very high probability that they decrease the true count of the deck before the dealer plays. Once the play becomes the dealers, now the true count is less and the dealer is more likely to make a hand.
Why is this not a correct way of thinking about the other's players hands and how they affect the table overall?
Another question I have is what is the expected amount of cards per hand that will be used by a player who is playing basic strategy?
Thanks for reading... I am a new member to this site, the extent of my blackjack playing is to pay the electricity bill each month
To me it makes sense that the play of others at the table do not affect your chances for multiple deck blackjack... but I believe that in a single deck or even double deck that making the right play is important. Here's an example:
Let's say a single deck has a +8 true count and everyone at the table is dealt stiffs including the dealer who has a 5 up. Now lets assume all the players at the table hit their stiffs, there is a very high probability that they decrease the true count of the deck before the dealer plays. Once the play becomes the dealers, now the true count is less and the dealer is more likely to make a hand.
Why is this not a correct way of thinking about the other's players hands and how they affect the table overall?
Another question I have is what is the expected amount of cards per hand that will be used by a player who is playing basic strategy?
Thanks for reading... I am a new member to this site, the extent of my blackjack playing is to pay the electricity bill each month
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Why other players don't matter, with math
JJCoolL830, it still doesn't matter. While hitting will reduce the running count on average, it doesn't change the true count on average.
How about a contrived but useful example...
Let's assume you saw the dealer's hole card, and you know the dealer has a hard 16. Better yet, you are Rainman, and you happen to know that there are exactly five cards left in the deck and you know exactly what they are...
Of the five undealt cards in the deck, four of them are tens, and one is a five.
You confidently stand on your hand of 12, knowing that you will win this hand 80% of the time.
Now all you have to worry about is Joe Sixpack at third base, taking away one of those dealer bust cards. Should you care? Of course not. Here's why.
Let's assume he draws a card.
4/5 of the time, he is indeed going to hurt your chances by drawing one of those four ten-valued cards. When that happens, he reduces your chance of winning this hand to only 75% (three out of four cards are now tens).
However, 1/5 of the time, he is going to draw the dealer's only hope, the last five in the deck. When that happens, you're a 100% lock to win your hand.
So, what does his hitting do to your chances on average?
(4/5) * 75% + (1/5) * 100% = 80%.
So, if he stands, you're an 80% favorite to win the hand. If he hits, you're exactly the same 80% favorite to win the hand. This is not a coincidence. It works with any number of cards and players. Other players CANNOT affect your chances at all.
Extra info for the technically inclined:
With 5 cards left, the running count is +3, and the true count is +31.2. After he draws a card, there are two possibilities:
4/5 of the time, running count = +2, true count = +26
1/5 of the time, running count = +4, true count = +52
So, after he draws, the average running count is reduced to +2.4, but the average true count remains unchanged at +31.2.
JJCoolL830, it still doesn't matter. While hitting will reduce the running count on average, it doesn't change the true count on average.
How about a contrived but useful example...
Let's assume you saw the dealer's hole card, and you know the dealer has a hard 16. Better yet, you are Rainman, and you happen to know that there are exactly five cards left in the deck and you know exactly what they are...
Of the five undealt cards in the deck, four of them are tens, and one is a five.
You confidently stand on your hand of 12, knowing that you will win this hand 80% of the time.
Now all you have to worry about is Joe Sixpack at third base, taking away one of those dealer bust cards. Should you care? Of course not. Here's why.
Let's assume he draws a card.
4/5 of the time, he is indeed going to hurt your chances by drawing one of those four ten-valued cards. When that happens, he reduces your chance of winning this hand to only 75% (three out of four cards are now tens).
However, 1/5 of the time, he is going to draw the dealer's only hope, the last five in the deck. When that happens, you're a 100% lock to win your hand.
So, what does his hitting do to your chances on average?
(4/5) * 75% + (1/5) * 100% = 80%.
So, if he stands, you're an 80% favorite to win the hand. If he hits, you're exactly the same 80% favorite to win the hand. This is not a coincidence. It works with any number of cards and players. Other players CANNOT affect your chances at all.
Extra info for the technically inclined:
With 5 cards left, the running count is +3, and the true count is +31.2. After he draws a card, there are two possibilities:
4/5 of the time, running count = +2, true count = +26
1/5 of the time, running count = +4, true count = +52
So, after he draws, the average running count is reduced to +2.4, but the average true count remains unchanged at +31.2.