Beating match the dealer?

[halbruno]

I have been reading recently about side bets and read through the threads on this site regarding the match the dealer side bet found today in many casinos.

I was wondering if this side bet is considered beatable in a heads up/1 on 1 game? It would make sense since only one player is getting all of the cards dealt increasing his chance to capitalize. Of course, when the count went high such as TC +5 Hi-Lo, the player could be really agressive knowing that the chance of matching tens coming out is high. I am thinking of testing this strategy at a local casino.

I would love to get some feedback. Any thoughts? Thanks.

[bjcardcounter]

there is an index for it I believe. AM wrote about it. Search this site, you will get

[tthree]

With match their are 4 individual ten rank cards. They aren't going to pay you for a 10 v J. This is a weak correlation. Start side counting aces and sevens. The information on their density properly used greatly increases your win rate. Combine a high density of either of these ranks with an extremely high or low count and maybe you are onto something. An extreme count alone is a very weak indicator of an imbalance in a particular rank(s).

[Automatic Monkey]

Originally Posted by tthree

With match their are 4 individual ten rank cards. They aren't going to pay you for a 10 v J. This is a weak correlation. Start side counting aces and sevens. The information on their density properly used greatly increases your win rate. Combine a high density of either of these ranks with an extremely high or low count and maybe you are onto something. An extreme count alone is a very weak indicator of an imbalance in a particular rank(s).

It's very hard. If you have the 4/11 paytable you can beat it for a little bit using an ordinary count. You can increase this by counting suits, but there is not a linear nor additive relationship. You really need a bunch of guys each counting something different and combining their data... or a computer.

[EmeraldCityBJ]

Originally Posted by halbruno

I have been reading recently about side bets and read through the threads on this site regarding the match the dealer side bet found today in many casinos.

I was wondering if this side bet is considered beatable in a heads up/1 on 1 game? It would make sense since only one player is getting all of the cards dealt increasing his chance to capitalize. Of course, when the count went high such as TC +5 Hi-Lo, the player could be really agressive knowing that the chance of matching tens coming out is high. I am thinking of testing this strategy at a local casino.

I would love to get some feedback. Any thoughts? Thanks.

My first suggestion is to not test something until you have some real numbers to work with. Shooting in the dark with some arbitrary true count that seems right is a recipe for disaster.

I ran the numbers a couple years ago, but don't have them readily available to post. I recall that you need a Hi-Lo true count (either positive or negative) in the low teens, and if you flat bet $100 when you have the edge, you'd only make about $10 per 100 hands and take on a bit more variance compared to BJ alone.

My conclusion then was that if I was going to go through the trouble to commit a couple more indices to memory, there are far better choices than knowing when to place a match bet.

[FLASH1296]

Pragmatically speaking, this is a side-bet that you cannot beat.

[halbruno]

So, even in a heads up game no one feels that the player may have a slight edge at least? The chances of matching seem much greater in that situation.

[FLASH1296]

halbruno,

Speaking for many of the members here —
what would make you think that the number
of players would make any difference at all ?

[halbruno]

Well, that is what I am interested in finding out! What are your views? It just seems that by playing heads up the frequency of matching the dealer is greater than if played with a full table for example. So, in a heads up situation, perhaps there is a greater chance of profiting on this side bet?

[tthree]

Originally Posted by halbruno

Well, that is what I am interested in finding out! What are your views? It just seems that by playing heads up the frequency of matching the dealer is greater than if played with a full table for example. So, in a heads up situation, perhaps there is a greater chance of profiting on this side bet?

Why would you think that?