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  #1  
Old July 15th, 2011, 05:28 AM
Thunder Thunder is offline
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Default Some MLB games I like for tonight

Braves -1.74 w
Twins -1.23 l
Arizona +1.19 l

Last edited by Thunder; July 19th, 2011 at 02:39 AM. Reason: results
  #2  
Old July 18th, 2011, 02:09 PM
Thunder Thunder is offline
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Default 7/18 picks

Pirates -1.07 w
Mets -1.3 l
Arizona -1.24 w
Giants -1.27 w

Last edited by Thunder; July 19th, 2011 at 02:43 AM. Reason: results
  #3  
Old July 18th, 2011, 03:14 PM
The Chaperone The Chaperone is offline
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I have BAL +125 and NYY -117. Good luck.
  #4  
Old July 20th, 2011, 06:15 PM
Brock Windsor Brock Windsor is offline
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-Nice plays Chap.
-Thunder if you can't beat the closing lines best to post it in voodoo.
  #5  
Old July 20th, 2011, 07:08 PM
Thunder Thunder is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Windsor View Post
-Nice plays Chap.
-Thunder if you can't beat the closing lines best to post it in voodoo.
With all due respect, Brock are you trying to provoke people? Chap didn't make any money off his picks that day and trying to imply that I can't beat the closing lines after a small sample is ludicrous. As it is, I beat the closing lines by an average of about .024 year to date.
  #6  
Old July 21st, 2011, 10:29 PM
Brock Windsor Brock Windsor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thunder View Post
With all due respect, Brock are you trying to provoke people? Chap didn't make any money off his picks that day and trying to imply that I can't beat the closing lines after a small sample is ludicrous. As it is, I beat the closing lines by an average of about .024 year to date.
I was intending to provoke the readers by being critical of the posts. Threads with people blindly posting picks without including why a play is +EV and an estimate of its value are dangerous and the other sports forums are full of them. Better to try and educate members as to how to find value and if you make picks, explain why you have priced the event the way you have perhaps including a model price. Won/Loss records mean little though I think many people evaluate a handicapper on that basis.
No personal disrespect was intended. I'm trying to learn more about sportsbetting.
  #7  
Old July 22nd, 2011, 02:48 AM
Thunder Thunder is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Windsor View Post
I was intending to provoke the readers by being critical of the posts. Threads with people blindly posting picks without including why a play is +EV and an estimate of its value are dangerous and the other sports forums are full of them. Better to try and educate members as to how to find value and if you make picks, explain why you have priced the event the way you have perhaps including a model price. Won/Loss records mean little though I think many people evaluate a handicapper on that basis.
No personal disrespect was intended. I'm trying to learn more about sportsbetting.
That's fine but you should know that I don't just blindly make gut picks. Unlike posters at other forums, I do have a track record in MLB on here which anyone is free to see.

Obviously you can't go by W-L record because that doesn't tell you the whole story when you're using the money line. It's a different story when using the spread. As it is, the bookie you use is probably the second most important thing behind your ability to handicap. That is why I was so upset when matchbook went bye bye for US customers. As a result, it has been costing me at least 4% per game, so my margin of error is much smaller.

I could write out my reasoning for every game I pick but that would require a lot of work and since I'm giving them away for free on here, I don't feel inclined to do so.
  #8  
Old July 22nd, 2011, 11:53 AM
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kewljason kewljason is offline
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I have been having some success playing the -1.5 run line on some games. If you find a game where a team is a fairly big favorite at say -150 or more and play the -1.5 run line instead of the money line you are usually getting that big favorite as an underdog and only giving up one run. As a further refinement, I only play these situations when it is the away team, simply because if you get into the 9th inning or extra innings of a tie game it becomes difficult for the home team to win by two. Would take a home run with at least 1 runner on base, but the visiting team still has the potential to score 2 or 3 runs in an inning without a homerun.

My sample size is very small and insignificant, having wagers on 15 such games winning 8 at an average line of +112.
  #9  
Old July 22nd, 2011, 12:56 PM
Thunder Thunder is offline
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If they have a good offense KJ, that's not a bad way to go.
  #10  
Old July 22nd, 2011, 06:14 PM
The Chaperone The Chaperone is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kewljason View Post
I have been having some success playing the -1.5 run line on some games. If you find a game where a team is a fairly big favorite at say -150 or more and play the -1.5 run line instead of the money line you are usually getting that big favorite as an underdog and only giving up one run. As a further refinement, I only play these situations when it is the away team, simply because if you get into the 9th inning or extra innings of a tie game it becomes difficult for the home team to win by two. Would take a home run with at least 1 runner on base, but the visiting team still has the potential to score 2 or 3 runs in an inning without a homerun.

My sample size is very small and insignificant, having wagers on 15 such games winning 8 at an average line of +112.
Generally speaking, laying the -1.5 is a recipe for disaster. Good luck. You'll need it.
 

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