Some MLB games I like for tonight

[Thunder]

Braves -1.74 w
Twins -1.23 l
Arizona +1.19 l

[Thunder]

Pirates -1.07 w
Mets -1.3 l
Arizona -1.24 w
Giants -1.27 w

[The Chaperone]

I have BAL +125 and NYY -117. Good luck.

[Brock Windsor]

-Nice plays Chap.
-Thunder if you can't beat the closing lines best to post it in voodoo.

[Thunder]

Originally Posted by Brock Windsor

-Nice plays Chap.
-Thunder if you can't beat the closing lines best to post it in voodoo.

With all due respect, Brock are you trying to provoke people? Chap didn't make any money off his picks that day and trying to imply that I can't beat the closing lines after a small sample is ludicrous. As it is, I beat the closing lines by an average of about .024 year to date.

[Brock Windsor]

Originally Posted by Thunder

With all due respect, Brock are you trying to provoke people? Chap didn't make any money off his picks that day and trying to imply that I can't beat the closing lines after a small sample is ludicrous. As it is, I beat the closing lines by an average of about .024 year to date.

I was intending to provoke the readers by being critical of the posts. Threads with people blindly posting picks without including why a play is +EV and an estimate of its value are dangerous and the other sports forums are full of them. Better to try and educate members as to how to find value and if you make picks, explain why you have priced the event the way you have perhaps including a model price. Won/Loss records mean little though I think many people evaluate a handicapper on that basis.
No personal disrespect was intended. I'm trying to learn more about sportsbetting.

[Thunder]

Originally Posted by Brock Windsor

I was intending to provoke the readers by being critical of the posts. Threads with people blindly posting picks without including why a play is +EV and an estimate of its value are dangerous and the other sports forums are full of them. Better to try and educate members as to how to find value and if you make picks, explain why you have priced the event the way you have perhaps including a model price. Won/Loss records mean little though I think many people evaluate a handicapper on that basis.
No personal disrespect was intended. I'm trying to learn more about sportsbetting.

That's fine but you should know that I don't just blindly make gut picks. Unlike posters at other forums, I do have a track record in MLB on here which anyone is free to see.

Obviously you can't go by W-L record because that doesn't tell you the whole story when you're using the money line. It's a different story when using the spread. As it is, the bookie you use is probably the second most important thing behind your ability to handicap. That is why I was so upset when matchbook went bye bye for US customers. As a result, it has been costing me at least 4% per game, so my margin of error is much smaller.

I could write out my reasoning for every game I pick but that would require a lot of work and since I'm giving them away for free on here, I don't feel inclined to do so.

[kewljason]

I have been having some success playing the -1.5 run line on some games. If you find a game where a team is a fairly big favorite at say -150 or more and play the -1.5 run line instead of the money line you are usually getting that big favorite as an underdog and only giving up one run. As a further refinement, I only play these situations when it is the away team, simply because if you get into the 9th inning or extra innings of a tie game it becomes difficult for the home team to win by two. Would take a home run with at least 1 runner on base, but the visiting team still has the potential to score 2 or 3 runs in an inning without a homerun.

My sample size is very small and insignificant, having wagers on 15 such games winning 8 at an average line of +112.

[Thunder]

If they have a good offense KJ, that's not a bad way to go.

[The Chaperone]

Originally Posted by kewljason

I have been having some success playing the -1.5 run line on some games. If you find a game where a team is a fairly big favorite at say -150 or more and play the -1.5 run line instead of the money line you are usually getting that big favorite as an underdog and only giving up one run. As a further refinement, I only play these situations when it is the away team, simply because if you get into the 9th inning or extra innings of a tie game it becomes difficult for the home team to win by two. Would take a home run with at least 1 runner on base, but the visiting team still has the potential to score 2 or 3 runs in an inning without a homerun.

My sample size is very small and insignificant, having wagers on 15 such games winning 8 at an average line of +112.

Generally speaking, laying the -1.5 is a recipe for disaster. Good luck. You'll need it.