Some MLB games I like for tonight

[Brock Windsor]

Originally Posted by kewljason

I have been having some success playing the -1.5 run line on some games. If you find a game where a team is a fairly big favorite at say -150 or more and play the -1.5 run line instead of the money line you are usually getting that big favorite as an underdog and only giving up one run. As a further refinement, I only play these situations when it is the away team, simply because if you get into the 9th inning or extra innings of a tie game it becomes difficult for the home team to win by two. Would take a home run with at least 1 runner on base, but the visiting team still has the potential to score 2 or 3 runs in an inning without a homerun.

My sample size is very small and insignificant, having wagers on 15 such games winning 8 at an average line of +112.

-You're taking a road fav over a home dog.
-A quick google I see road favs less than 45% ATS this year.
-Data I grabbed (not verified) shows in 2010 that 1545 games of 2450 the dog either won outright or lost by one run.
I haven't bet sports before but these are three quick red flags that stand out to me.

[The Chaperone]

Originally Posted by Brock Windsor

-You're taking a road fav over a home dog.
-A quick google I see road favs less than 45% ATS this year.
-Data I grabbed (not verified) shows in 2010 that 1545 games of 2450 the dog either won outright or lost by one run.
I haven't bet sports before but these are three quick red flags that stand out to me.

Road faves are definitely bad subsets, but you can't really analyze MLB or NHL like this due to the Money Lines. This type of analysis only works in point spread type sports like football and basketball.

[kewljason]

Originally Posted by Brock Windsor

-You're taking a road fav over a home dog.
-A quick google I see road favs less than 45% ATS this year.
-Data I grabbed (not verified) shows in 2010 that 1545 games of 2450 the dog either won outright or lost by one run.
I haven't bet sports before but these are three quick red flags that stand out to me.

You are not analizing the proposal correctly. I am talking huge road favorites, that are -150, or more, and then only taking the -1.5 line if it is now an underdog. There certainly were not 2500 road favorites that big. The number would be more like a hundred or two. You are lucky if you see 1 road favorite -150 or more a day.

[Brock Windsor]

Originally Posted by kewljason

You are not analizing the proposal correctly. I am talking huge road favorites, that are -150, or more, and then only taking the -1.5 line if it is now an underdog. There certainly were not 2500 road favorites that big. The number would be more like a hundred or two. You are lucky if you see 1 road favorite -150 or more a day.

WOO site has Run-Line conversion charts that should show if your number is getting the best of it. (use the second one and multiply by -1 for road favs.) He uses fair money line (as opposed to a no-vig line which to me would be more accurate?), but it should give you an idea. If you go back and analyse the runline number you got for each game and compare that to what he projects the fair value should be based on the fair money closing line and the total, you'll know if your number was better or worse. If you're not beating his projected number with your strategy I don't think it's a winner. OTOH, if you are beating it you may have found something exploitable.

[The Chaperone]

Originally Posted by kewljason

You are not analizing the proposal correctly. I am talking huge road favorites, that are -150, or more, and then only taking the -1.5 line if it is now an underdog. There certainly were not 2500 road favorites that big. The number would be more like a hundred or two. You are lucky if you see 1 road favorite -150 or more a day.

-150 is not huge. It means they have a 60% chance of winning the game. And if you are only betting road faves on the RL when the RL is + money and the ML is -150 or more, you are dealing with a very limited subset because the swing in ML to RL for road teams is usually only about 60 cents. So basically you are talking about road faves in the -150 to -160 range. This is kind of a bizarre subset and betting strategy btw.

[kewljason]

Originally Posted by The Chaperone

-150 is not huge. It means they have a 60% chance of winning the game. And if you are only betting road faves on the RL when the RL is + money and the ML is -150 or more, you are dealing with a very limited subset because the swing in ML to RL for road teams is usually only about 60 cents. So basically you are talking about road faves in the -150 to -160 range. This is kind of a bizarre subset and betting strategy btw.

The difference between money line and run line is way more than 60 cents usually chap. usually at least a dollar.

Look at todays big lines:

Phils ML -250, -1.5 -110
Altla ML -185 -1.5 +120
StL ML -205 -1.5 EVEN
yanks ML -210 -1.5 -110
Boston ML -300 -1.5 -145

All of them are at least a dollar difference. Unfortunately they are all home teams as well, so no plays for me.

[Sharky]

Originally Posted by The Chaperone

...because the swing in ML to RL for road teams is usually only about 60 cents...

[The Chaperone]

Dear kewljason,

Come on man.

-Chap

[Brock Windsor]

Do books generally ban players from parlaying the road fav against the runline with the over?

[The Chaperone]

Originally Posted by Brock Windsor

Do books generally ban players from parlaying the road fav against the runline with the over?

You generally won't get the boot for that kind of thing but most don't allow RL/total parlays. I would be careful with those. The edge can be thin and the variance high. And you need to know what you're doing. For the most part, it is not profitable to blindly parlay fave RL/over and dog RL/under.