Blackjack and Card Counting Forums - BlackjackInfo.com

  #1  
Old July 16th, 2011, 12:42 PM
kewljason's Avatar
kewljason kewljason is offline
Executive Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 2,564
Default Mathematics in today's blackjack games

It seems to me, the advanced mathematics angle has really been pushed on this site lately. Maybe it is my lack of a mathematics degree and/or background that prevents me from not appreciating this angle as much as others.

Someone visiting this site for the first time and reading through some of these threads, will conclude that to succeed in card counting today, you must play an advanced level 2, 3 or higher count, with multiple side counts, and hundreds of strategy change indices for both the primary count and side counts and that is just not so. I actually believe that in today's game the mathematics is less important than it used to be. The math guys want to run sims showing that a multiple level count will improve your results by .xx percent or two side counts will with hundreds of play variations is worth an additional .xx percent. Some of these guys, I think the majority of their blackjack experience takes place on their computer. They think Qfit's products or even their own programs are their blackjack career instead of a tool to aide in their actual play.

I am not disputing that these advanced card counting ideas don't improve performance. I do believe the value of this 'gain' is overstated, the error rate understated and that it just doesn't translate fully in actual play. I am questioning the value for the majority of players in the real world of play. In the real world there is so much education that must take place on the ground, rather than the computer screen that seems to be overlooked. Things that can result in far greater improvement to your results than higher level counts and side counts. Sniffing out and taking advantage of better games and opportunities. Learning what is and isn't tolerated at different places and tayloring your play to these guidelines and levels. Even learning these tolerance levels for different pit personnel and co-ordinating with their schedules. All these advanced math techniques don't mean squat if you aren't able to apply them anywhere but your computer.

So while, you guys can fight over the merits of such gains in threads that run 15+pages, I want to go on record to say to anyone reading these threads for the first time, or the umpteenth time, whatever your level and intent, from recreational player to supplementing your lifestyle/income, to full-time player, “you don't have to be Newton or Einstein to succeed. You can still do just fine learning the basics”.
  #2  
Old July 16th, 2011, 01:01 PM
tthree tthree is offline
Executive Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 2,277
Default

I am probably the big offender for talking up both the math side and the practical side in the OP. I think it is important to note here for the noobs exactly who Kewljason is. Unless I am getting him confused with someone else he started at the bottom with a small bankroll and ran the gauntlet to become a true pro with a bankroll the way that should earn respect from everyone. He won it with smarts, hard work and luck. His story would be a good one to hear for all who aspire to follow in his footsteps. He has a lot to offer in the real world AP blackjack that many big pros never had to experience. I for one wouldn't mind hearing him talk some about what it took to succeed at what so many are attempting to do. He has as much to offer in improving ones prospects at growing a bankroll as getting math on your side. Sorry if I am putting you on the spot KJ but your wisdom that has been glimpsed at in the OP is at least as important as the math. I hope I didn't get you confused with someone else. Please give those trying to walk down the path you already know some incites that will help our prospects. I am sure you have some entertaining and informative anecdotes.
  #3  
Old July 16th, 2011, 01:06 PM
Sucker Sucker is offline
Executive Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: U.S.A.
Posts: 1,504
Default

This post, with only a LITTLE bit of editing; could and SHOULD be made into a "sticky".
  #4  
Old July 16th, 2011, 01:26 PM
London Colin London Colin is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 378
Default

Well, the various sub-forums exist to help keep these things separate, although some topics can be hard to choose a home for.

Has there really been much posted in 'Card Counting' that belonged in 'Theory and Math'?
  #5  
Old July 16th, 2011, 01:39 PM
psyduck's Avatar
psyduck psyduck is offline
Executive Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 707
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kewljason View Post
I am not disputing that these advanced card counting ideas don't improve performance. I do believe the value of this 'gain' is overstated,
The value of the gain is what I have been trying to quantify. Do you have a number for it to show it is overstated and by how much? I think it is better to show the numbers and let others decide what to do with them.
  #6  
Old July 16th, 2011, 01:46 PM
21gunsalute 21gunsalute is offline
Executive Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Area 51
Posts: 1,144
Default

Well I for one honestly don't understand what advantage a higher level count has over a lower level count. I keep hearing it gives "additional information," but it seems to me all it gives is a different number to work with. I don't see where that really gives any additional information. I can see where side counts can give some additional information, and I have started to side count aces when playing DD, but I can't really see where you can garner any additional info from a higher level count. PE and BC may be different between different level counts but quite often one may be traded off for the other. When you add in the complexity of learning some of these counts I just don't see where it's worth it, but to each his own I guess.
  #7  
Old July 16th, 2011, 01:49 PM
21gunsalute 21gunsalute is offline
Executive Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Area 51
Posts: 1,144
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by psyduck View Post
The value of the gain is what I have been trying to quantify. Do you have a number for it to show it is overstated and by how much? I think it is better to show the numbers and let others decide what to do with them.
Uh, how's your reading comprehension?

Quote:
Originally Posted by kewljason View Post
It seems to me, the advanced mathematics angle has really been pushed on this site lately. Maybe it is my lack of a mathematics degree and/or background that prevents me from not appreciating this angle as much as others.
  #8  
Old July 16th, 2011, 01:53 PM
21gunsalute 21gunsalute is offline
Executive Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Area 51
Posts: 1,144
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kewljason View Post
“you don't have to be Newton or Einstein to succeed.
Newton must have been a positive progression player, causing him to discover that what goes up must come back down. He obviously wan't a negative progression player because what falls to the ground never goes back up.
  #9  
Old July 16th, 2011, 02:24 PM
kewljason's Avatar
kewljason kewljason is offline
Executive Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 2,564
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by tthree View Post
I am probably the big offender for talking up both the math side and the practical side in the OP. I think it is important to note here for the noobs exactly who Kewljason is. Unless I am getting him confused with someone else he started at the bottom with a small bankroll and ran the gauntlet to become a true pro with a bankroll the way that should earn respect from everyone. He won it with smarts, hard work and luck. His story would be a good one to hear for all who aspire to follow in his footsteps. He has a lot to offer in the real world AP blackjack that many big pros never had to experience. I for one wouldn't mind hearing him talk some about what it took to succeed at what so many are attempting to do. He has as much to offer in improving ones prospects at growing a bankroll as getting math on your side. Sorry if I am putting you on the spot KJ but your wisdom that has been glimpsed at in the OP is at least as important as the math. I hope I didn't get you confused with someone else. Please give those trying to walk down the path you already know some incites that will help our prospects. I am sure you have some entertaining and informative anecdotes.
Yes tthree, you were a good part of the inspiration for this post, but there have been many before you and many similar discussion.

As for the rest of your comments, maybe you are confusing me with someone else. You make the journey sound better than I remember it. In the AP world, we don't like to use the word, luck, but I truely had a great deal of good fortune and things break right for me in my climb from an disasterously underfunded low limit player to a mid level player. I hope I am not inspiring and certainly am not encouraging anyone to take that route.

Last edited by kewljason; July 16th, 2011 at 02:27 PM.
  #10  
Old July 16th, 2011, 02:35 PM
21forme 21forme is offline
Executive Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 3,120
Default

KJ - I agree with you 100%. In theory, a higher level count is better. Unless someone plans on playing a billion hands, it doesn't matter. I'd much rather be able to backcount 2 tables at the same time while talking to someone, then worry about making a mistake in a multi-level count.


Here's a semi-related story, told to us in physics class in college:

There was an old-time physics professor who had a strange habit upon entering the classroom every day. He'd walk in, go to the chalkboard, take a piece of chalk, hold it out in front of him and drop it. As he dropped it, he'd look up.

This would go on day after day, and finally one brave student stood up and said, "Professor, every day, you take a piece of chalk, drop it, and look up. Why?"

The professor answered, "Young man, according to the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, there is a 1.05457168x10(exp)-34 chance that when I drop this piece of chalk, it will go up instead of down. When it happens, I don't want to miss it!"
 

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:00 PM.


Forum Software vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2005-2011 Bayview Strategies LLC