Being Nice to Ploppies can be +EV

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Finrod

Active Member
#1
#1
I have found many threads at this site helpful for uncovering new opportunities to increase profits at the table. I believe it has been said that sometimes it is better to not force these opportunities to happen, but learn to recognize when they occur and maximize the opportunity.

So here is an experience I recently had....

I was at a table with one other player. He pushed out a green chip for the next hand which seemed to make him a little nervous. I don’t think he had much left behind. He drew two aces. He knew he had to split them and reluctantly pushed out another green chip. On his second ace, he drew another ace. He looked at me like he was asking me what he should do. I said something like you can’t win with a 13 and that I would be happy to buy his split. He happily accepted and I tossed him a green chip. We ended up winning all of our hands and he was happy as a lark.

Now that was a pretty good situation for me, but not near as good as what came next, though I have no idea why he offered it. He said he would play the 21+3 poker side bet on the next hand and if he won, he would give me half the payoff. Hot dog! No investment on my part and I have a better than 46% chance of getting a 4.5 unit payoff. So, being nice to ploppies can be positive EV!

Against the odds, he actually hit his poker hand and tossed me 5 chips. I tossed one back and thanked him for the opportunity.
 
S

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
Nice score!

However; If the 21+3 bet pays 9:1 and comes in 46% of the time, the casino will run out of money within just a few hours. I think maybe you misplaced a decimal point. :grin:
 
F

Finrod

Active Member
#3
#3
True

Sucker,

I am sure you are correct. So someone help me with my math please. If the 21+3 sidebet has a 3% HE (rate of earning money), what are my chances of hitting (frequency of making a hand)? I realize now the two calculations are different.

Fin
 
M

MangoJ

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
For a rough estimate you can always use 1 / (odds+1) if HE is lower than 10%: p ~ 1 / (9 + 1) = 10%

I don't know anything about this sidebet. But if it is fixed odds paying 9 to 1, and has a 3% house edge:
p * 9 - (1-p) = 1 - 3% results in p=9.7%
 
Gamblor

Gamblor

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
I normally don't advise ploppies how they play, but the times I do and they win, "jokingly" say to them something like "Hey, where's my advisor's fee!" Sometimes they'll actually give me my advisor's fee.
 
A

assume_R

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
Match the Dealer

Nice!

One of my favorites is the Match the Dealer sidebet, where people usually start whining that I never play it, and I tell them they can play my spot if they want. So this one guy (very rich gangster guy........) gave me 2 green chips to put on my spot for him, and he hit it! (12 to 1), so he racked up $600. He gave me some of it (I think he gave me $125), and the pit boss started complaining that this guy never tipped the dealer, so I used one of the green chips he gave me as a tip, and from that moment on I was basically able to spread whatever I wanted at that table with no scrutiny.

Note that this same guy hit it a few times with a black chip on it... yeah, he ended up giving it all back eventually.
 
A

alwayssplitaces

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
I let a ploppy play a white chip on the Lucky ladies side bet on my spot whenever I'm not playing it, in exchange for letting me place a green chip on his Lucky Ladies bet as well as mine "when I felt it coming". That one hand I did that, my 2 hands and the ploppy's hand were all 20s. It's nice of him to agree to make that sucker bet even more costly to him because he didn't bet it when it turned +EV. And if I got 2 queens of hearts on my spot at a low count, he might have felt obliged to share some of his winnings with me.
 
P

pogostick

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
Finrod said:
I have found many threads at this site helpful for uncovering new opportunities to increase profits at the table. I believe it has been said that sometimes it is better to not force these opportunities to happen, but learn to recognize when they occur and maximize the opportunity.

So here is an experience I recently had....

I was at a table with one other player. He pushed out a green chip for the next hand which seemed to make him a little nervous. I don’t think he had much left behind. He drew two aces. He knew he had to split them and reluctantly pushed out another green chip. On his second ace, he drew another ace. He looked at me like he was asking me what he should do. I said something like you can’t win with a 13 and that I would be happy to buy his split. He happily accepted and I tossed him a green chip. We ended up winning all of our hands and he was happy as a lark.

Now that was a pretty good situation for me, but not near as good as what came next, though I have no idea why he offered it. He said he would play the 21+3 poker side bet on the next hand and if he won, he would give me half the payoff. Hot dog! No investment on my part and I have a better than 46% chance of getting a 4.5 unit payoff. So, being nice to ploppies can be positive EV!

Against the odds, he actually hit his poker hand and tossed me 5 chips. I tossed one back and thanked him for the opportunity.
Click to expand...
There really was no decision to be made after he split As. :confused:
 
S

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
pogostick said:
There really was no decision to be made after he split As. :confused:
Click to expand...
There are still a good many casinos left that will let you resplit aces, up to three times, for a total of four hands. Besides that; if they were playing one of the "carny" BJ games - such as Spanish 21, or Super Fun 21 - those game even allow you to HIT after splitting aces.
 
F

Finrod

Active Member
#11
#11
Pogo Correct

Pogostick is correct in this particular situation. That is why it was a no brainer for me when he looked at me the way he did. I think he knew the right thing to do, but was just not comfortable pushing out another green chip.
 
Most Interesting Man

Most Interesting Man

Well-Known Member
#12
#12
A ploppy once reimbursed me for losing a double 11 vs 6 because he told me to double. I was going to anyway but thanks!

Another time I "made the dealer bust" with some obscure index play and a ploppy put $10 on each of my empty side bets and told me to keep whatever I get. Got a mini-jackpot on one of them.
 
T

tthree

Banned
#13
#13
Most Interesting Man said:
A ploppy once reimbursed me for losing a double 11 vs 6 because he told me to double. I was going to anyway but thanks!

Another time I "made the dealer bust" with some obscure index play and a ploppy put $10 on each of my empty side bets and told me to keep whatever I get. Got a mini-jackpot on one of them.
Click to expand...
Where were you to find such ploppies.
 
Most Interesting Man

Most Interesting Man

Well-Known Member
#14
#14
They're around. You just have to know how to induce their inner ploppy nature to give up their money to you instead of the house.

Renting out your sidebets for a cut of the wins can be massive EV. But it comes at a cost of not pissing off your tennant with correct BS or index plays that mess up the cards. If you do it right, you can afford to make a few bad plays, especially if you've worked out a loss rebate deal on those plays.
 
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