Bust it blackjack

[deadlywizard234]

Does this game become profitable at a certain Hi-Lo Index?

Bet pays if dealer busts on 3 cards.

Bust on 6 15:1
Bust on 7 9:1
Bust on 8 7:1
Bust on 9 5:1
Bust on 10 3:1
Suited 888 200:1
Colored 888 50:1

[tthree]

Originally Posted by deadlywizard234

Does this game become profitable at a certain Hi-Lo Index?

Bet pays if dealer busts on 3 cards.

Bust on 6 15:1
Bust on 7 9:1
Bust on 8 7:1
Bust on 9 5:1
Bust on 10 3:1
Suited 888 200:1
Colored 888 50:1

This side bet has a very low correlation to HILO. Look at the bust cards:

10: HILO counts them with aces 80% correlation
9: not counted
8: not counted
7: not counted
6: counted but diluted even more the T by aces. 20% correlation

Side counting the block of 6,7,8 and 9 would be very useful information.

[assume_R]

You can use a simulator (e.g. cvdata) to find the Effect of Removal (EoR) of each card for this side bet. Just turn on the side bet, customize the shoe by removing a few of each card, and get the EV of this sidebet for different shoe states. Probably not worth your time, though, playing it alone.

[blackriver]

Obviously the 8 is the most important card, besides the bonuses it both turns hands into stiffs and busts stiffs. Im becoming a bigger and bigger fan of understanding and including more tactics and strategies even if they sometimes won't be as accurate as you like. For this side bet im pretty sure without doing a side count you could profitably this whenever you notice a lot of aces have come out and a lot of eights are still in there. If you wanted to count the tags might look like
6 7 8 9 +1
2 3 4 5 -1

Or

hi opt and side count aces(-1) vs eights(+1)and betting whenever the true counts combined are >3 and both positive.

[Menessis]

It's funny I was playing this just today, and wondering the same exact thing. One thing I did notice is that the side bets take up the dealers time. So it gives us rookies longer to count!

Busting with a 6 pays the best, a ten pays 3:1 so a hi count may be good but have no idea if this is true.

Menessis

[AussiePlayer]

Originally Posted by Menessis

One thing I did notice is that the side bets take up the dealers time. So it gives us rookies longer to count!

While you're still learning, this can be a good thing. Once you can count at normal playing speed, this is decreasing your $$$$/Hr!

[Menessis]

OK I know the 7's, 8's, 9's are not counted and these are cards that that bust the dealer. But on the other hand all we want to do is have an "educated guess" as to when the dealer is likely to bust. So I think that the hi lo count is helpfull. A hi count helps bust the dealer, and with some luck on the third card! It pays regardless of what card right, as long as it's the third card.

Just my thoughts.

Menessis

[duanedibley]

The Hi-Lo true count will give you essentially no information about the dealer bust rate before the cards are dealt. Take a look at this chart on the QFIT blog. As you can see the dealer bust rate is within a 1% window for all true counts from -10 to +10.

[Menessis]

OK, I was under the impression that counting cards works because a hi count works against the dealer. This is what I based my previos post on. Here is a quote from Arnold Snyder's page. http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...ngNutshell.htm

"Low cards favor the dealer because they help him make winning totals on his hands when he is stiff (has a 12, 13, 14, 15, or 16 total on his first two cards). In casino blackjack, you can stand on your stiffs if you want to, but the dealer cannot. Casino rules require that he hit his stiffs no matter how rich the deck is in high cards that will bust him."

So it seems to me that a hi count helps bust the dealer ???

Menessis

[tthree]

Originally Posted by Menessis

OK, I was under the impression that counting cards works because a hi count works against the dealer. This is what I based my previos post on. Here is a quote from Arnold Snyder's page. http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...ngNutshell.htm

"Low cards favor the dealer because they help him make winning totals on his hands when he is stiff (has a 12, 13, 14, 15, or 16 total on his first two cards). In casino blackjack, you can stand on your stiffs if you want to, but the dealer cannot. Casino rules require that he hit his stiffs no matter how rich the deck is in high cards that will bust him."

So it seems to me that a hi count helps bust the dealer ???

Menessis

In a high count dealer stiffs go down but the bust rate goes up. These 2 effects come close to offsetting each other. The increase of blackjacks, splits and double opportunities has a lot to do with why high counts favor the player. That more rare dealer stiff now becomes a split or double opportunity much of the time.