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Old August 22nd, 2011, 06:51 AM
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Default Dan Gordonís NFL stuff

For anyone interested, Danís NFL software and picks site are open for the coming season. Last year, his record was 24-14-3 (63.2%) and he went four out of four on his strong plays. I should say that this is a ridiculously good record and cannot be expected to be repeated this year. Itís simply not possible to maintain that kind of record in sports betting year after year. His overall rating for the last 15 seasons is 56.8%.

His site can be found at Dan Gordon Sports.
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Old August 23rd, 2011, 04:26 PM
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For anyone interested, Danís NFL software and picks site are open for the coming season. Last year, his record was 24-14-3 (63.2%) and he went four out of four on his strong plays. I should say that this is a ridiculously good record and cannot be expected to be repeated this year. Itís simply not possible to maintain that kind of record in sports betting year after year. His overall rating for the last 15 seasons is 56.8%.

His site can be found at Dan Gordon Sports.
Can you tell me whether you would make more money by selling your picks or just by keeping them to yourself? By the way (63.2%) is a good record but not a ridiculously good record.
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Old August 23rd, 2011, 04:29 PM
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Dan does not allow subscribers that bet high enough to markedly disturb the odds. So, the first question is moot.

Most people in the business would say that 63.2% is impossible, at least consistently.

Last edited by QFIT; August 23rd, 2011 at 04:41 PM.
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Old August 23rd, 2011, 05:04 PM
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Dan does not allow subscribers that bet high enough to markedly disturb the odds. So, the first question is moot.

Most people in the business would say that 63.2% is impossible, at least consistently.
I think that you miss understood what I said. I was implying why doesn't he just bet his own picks instead of selling them or a better point how about him entering the Hilton Super Contest. Last years winner at the Hilton went 54-28 for 65.8%.

http://www.vegasnews.com/40624/las-v...st-winner.html
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Old August 23rd, 2011, 05:41 PM
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I think that you miss understood what I said. I was implying why doesn't he just bet his own picks instead of selling them or a better point how about him entering the Hilton Super Contest. Last years winner at the Hilton went 54-28 for 65.8%.
1. He does bet his picks. Always.
2. The Hilton contest is against stale lines. You get to make your pick on lines that are days old. So, you wait for the injury and substitution reports, and then bet an old line that has changed. Completely different.

Contests require a very different methodology. You are one of a hundred or so players. The only way to win is to make contrarian bets. And this is a stupid method of betting for real. The winner of the Hilton Contest two years ago got less than 50% last year.
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Old August 23rd, 2011, 06:49 PM
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[QUOTE=QFIT;249
Contests require a very different methodology. You are one of a hundred or so players. The only way to win is to make contrarian bets. And this is a stupid method of betting for real. The winner of the Hilton Contest two years ago got less than 50% last year.[/QUOTE]

Here is a person who won it 2 years in a row.



Fezzik cleans up in Hilton Super Contest

Really, though, my accomplishments pale compared to what handicapping genius Fezzik did in Vegas this past weekend. For the second year in a row he won the Hilton's Super Contest, the most prestigious NFL picking contest on The Strip. It's like winning the Super Bowl two straight years, which cements Fezzik as one of Vegas' top sharps. He beat out 328 contestants, and won $196,000 in the process.

Of course, because we're talking gambling, the money didn't come without peril.

Fezzik had been atop the Hilton big board for most of the final month of the season. But heading into Week 17, he was half a game out of the lead, pushes count in this contest, trailing a guy named Big E.

The Hilton contest isn't the kind where cappers pick every game on the menu. They choose just five. And because this is a head-to-head competition, it's about more than selecting the right games; players need to be thinking about what their opponents are going to do as well. "There is some game theory involved," says Fezzik.

Heading into the weekend, Fezzik did a little research and he realized that Big E had a tendency to take underdogs in the 3-7 point range. He saw Seattle plus-4 against the Titans and thought to himself, I need to make sure we're on opposite sides of games, so I am going to take the Titans. He also had Buffalo, Carolina, New England and Tampa. Big E had Buffalo, Tampa, Arizona, KC and, as Fezzik expected, Seattle.

Of course, for a spell yesterday afternoon, it seemed he out-thunk himself. Through the first four games of the day, he was 3-1 and Big E was 2-2. Now he was ahead by a half game with just that Titans-Seahawks game to go. And the Titans, who had played like world-beaters the second half of this season, were struggling against a woebegone team.

"All they cared about was getting Chris Johnson to 2,000 yards," says Fezzik. "And it kept them playing hard."

But it didn't stop Rob Bironas from missing a field goal to give the Titans a three-point lead. And it didn't stop Ahmad Hall for committing a holding penalty that called back Chris Johnson's 62-yard TD run early in the fourth, which would have given the Titans a four-point lead, pending the extra point. Playing hard did, however help Johnson score from the one later in the quarter, barely getting the ball across the goal line, to finally give the Titans the lead Fezzik needed. At least the officials said he scored. Replays were inconclusive. "Honestly, I lost six months off my life watching this game," says Fezzik.

And that was before Hasselbeck drove the Seahawks down to the Titans 27, where he eventually threw a pick with a little more than a minute left in the game. "I hedged a little bit and made a bet on Seattle plus-6, so I would have made a little money back," says Fezzik.

Remarkably, Fezzik had never finished higher than 24th in the contest before last season. In fact, as recently as 2005, he finished three games below .500 and lost $35,000 on side bets he made with other contestants. Now, he's the first back-to-back champ in the two decades of the contest. A couple weeks ago Hilton bookmaking boss Jay Kornegay described Fezzik's run to me as, "truly remarkable." Which it is. It's also, as Fezzik admits, a little bit lucky. "Honestly," he says, "I don't think I'm getting smarter. I'm actually getting a little dumber."

He's also already thinking about the over/under on what place he'll finish next year. He put the number at 50. My money is on him.
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Old August 23rd, 2011, 06:53 PM
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He's also already thinking about the over/under on what place he'll finish next year. He put the number at 50. My money is on him.
Well, that guy lost. Fez hit less than 50% last year.
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Old August 23rd, 2011, 06:53 PM
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Dan does not allow subscribers that bet high enough to markedly disturb the odds. So, the first question is moot.

Most people in the business would say that 63.2% is impossible, at least consistently.
Exactly how does he know how much they bet? How does he put a limit on how much they bet?
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Old August 24th, 2011, 02:19 PM
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I didn't like his book.
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Old August 24th, 2011, 03:34 PM
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I didn't like his book.

What didn't you like about it ? Can you tell us ?
 

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