Dan Gordon’s NFL stuff

[QFIT]

Originally Posted by moo321

I didn't like his book.

It's very difficult to repeat the calculations in his book. I created the software at the request of a friend that knew Dan knew what he was talking about, but had trouble making the calcs himself.

BTW, he is still an active BJ player. His BJ book goes under the pseudonym Stuart Perry.

[moo321]

Originally Posted by Eye of the Tiger

What didn't you like about it ? Can you tell us ?

He just didn't say much of anything useful. Basically it took 200+ pages to say "rank every team, and then compare your power rankings to the spread". Nothing wrong with that advice, but he didn't get into handicapping and how he decides his power rankings at all.

[QFIT]

Chapter 10 talks to this a great deal. There is no "complete" formula. I wouldn't trust one.

[Eye of the Tiger]

Originally Posted by QFIT

Chapter 10 talks to this a great deal. There is no "complete" formula. I wouldn't trust one.

So there is no point in buying the book. It sounds like it is virtually worthless. I think I will pass on this one.

[QFIT]

If you are looking for a book that will tell you which team to bet on in a future year, you won't find one. This isn't BJ with a fixed number of possible hands. The book explains his handicapping methodology with tables, examples and rational.

[Eye of the Tiger]

Originally Posted by QFIT

If you are looking for a book that will tell you which team to bet on in a future year, you won't find one. This isn't BJ with a fixed number of possible hands. The book explains his handicapping methodology with tables, examples and rational.

I found out the best way to handicap the NFL is to watch as many games as you can. Nothing beats seeing it in your own eyes and forming your opinion. I would suggest getting the NFL package through your cable provider. Direct TV is one that has the NFL Sunday Ticket package. If I remember the have the split screen so you can watch multiple games at the same time. Just like being in LV. A must for the serious handicapper.

[QFIT]

Originally Posted by Eye of the Tiger

I found out the best way to handicap the NFL is to watch as many games as you can. Nothing beats seeing it in your own eyes and forming your opinion. I would suggest getting the NFL package through your cable provider. Direct TV is one that has the NFL Sunday Ticket package. If I remember the have the split screen so you can watch multiple games at the same time. Just like being in LV. A must for the serious handicapper.

Good luck. But, beating the vig takes far, far more than that. That sounds more like the advice given by Blackjack dealers. Just watch a lot and see what happens.

[Eye of the Tiger]

Originally Posted by QFIT

Good luck. But, beating the vig takes far, far more than that. That sounds more like the advice given by Blackjack dealers. Just watch a lot and see what happens.

That's just one of the tools in your arsenal. I know it takes a whole lot more then that. Sometimes the stats are not a true indication of what really happen in the game. I seen it to many times.

[QFIT]

Originally Posted by Eye of the Tiger

That's just one of the tools in your arsenal. I know it takes a whole lot more then that. Sometimes the stats are not a true indication of what really happen in the game. I seen it to many times.

I'm no expert. But, data mining in sports appears to be fairly useless. The history between teams and individuals is more important. Dan focuses on the emotional aspects.

[moo321]

Originally Posted by QFIT

I'm no expert. But, data mining in sports appears to be fairly useless. The history between teams and individuals is more important. Dan focuses on the emotional aspects.

I don't agree. You just need to be able to tell the difference between what correlates with wins and what doesn't.

For example, quarterbacks with 26+ wonderlic scores, 27+ starts, and 60%+ completion in college tend to work out as pros.