Dealer Blackjack on first hand

[S2krazy03]

Ive noticed that it seems like probably 80% (just a wild guess, not actually counting them) of the dealer Ace up cards that happen on the first hand are blackjacks. Is there any math to go with this?
First start of the deck, dealer has an Ace up, do YOU take insurance? Im guessing a lot of us have min bets up at this point anyways (minus STers) so curious as to peoples thoughts about the subject. I feel like I might just start taking insurance on first hand dealer Ace ups because it seems to happen so much, even if the count doesnt warrant for it.

Plus I figured I would pop this question since the thread before this, is about no one posting voodoo strats

[Nvrlose37]

I really doubt there would be math to say ALWAYS take the Insurance just because it's a "fresh" Dealer Ace. In the case that there are five players with low cards and the Dealer Ace showing then of course there would be a mathematical reason the BJ would occur but otherwise is seriously just a coincidence.

Kinda sucks if it happened 80% of the time to you

[AussiePlayer]

Originally Posted by S2krazy03

Ive noticed that it seems like probably 80% (just a wild guess, not actually counting them) of the dealer Ace up cards that happen on the first hand are blackjacks. Is there any math to go with this?
First start of the deck, dealer has an Ace up, do YOU take insurance? Im guessing a lot of us have min bets up at this point anyways (minus STers) so curious as to peoples thoughts about the subject. I feel like I might just start taking insurance on first hand dealer Ace ups because it seems to happen so much, even if the count doesnt warrant for it.

You should take insurance according to the index for the particular count you use. I only play shoe games and in a shoe game it is practically impossible to reach the insurance index on the first hand. It could happen in pitch games, but I sincerely doubt it would be anywhere near 80%!

Originally Posted by S2krazy03

Plus I figured I would pop this question since the thread before this, is about no one posting voodoo strats

Yes, you got this in the right section.

[S2krazy03]

Ya this happens in a DD pitch game, so I cant really see the other peoples cards.

[joeblackjack]

Originally Posted by S2krazy03

Ive noticed that it seems like probably 80% (just a wild guess, not actually counting them) of the dealer Ace up cards that happen on the first hand are blackjacks. Is there any math to go with this?
First start of the deck, dealer has an Ace up, do YOU take insurance? Im guessing a lot of us have min bets up at this point anyways (minus STers) so curious as to peoples thoughts about the subject. I feel like I might just start taking insurance on first hand dealer Ace ups because it seems to happen so much, even if the count doesnt warrant for it.

Plus I figured I would pop this question since the thread before this, is about no one posting voodoo strats

There is no math to backup your 80% observation. It may feel that way, but you're simply running unlucky. Over time, everyone at the table (including the dealer) will get blackjack exactly the percentage of the time that they are supposed to. The math will bear itself out.

Off the top of the deck, not knowing others' cards, the odds of a dealer having a 10 value card under their Ace are exactly 4/13 or 30.7%. The house edge on every dollar you bet on insurance varies slightly with the number of decks, but is approximately 7.4%, making it one of the worst bets in the entire casino. It's a bad bet unless the count reflects that you will have an edge on it, or you have information via other methods (shuffle tracking, hole carding, etc.). Unless, of course, the dealer is giving you the evil eye, and it's a full moon .

[ringlejames]

Sounds like you play on mostly AUTOMATIC shuffle machines.

I am sorry about your luck.

[shadroch]

Originally Posted by ringlejames

Sounds like you play on mostly AUTOMATIC shuffle machines.

I am sorry about your luck.

And ASMs are bad because.....?

[aslan]

Originally Posted by S2krazy03

Ive noticed that it seems like probably 80% (just a wild guess, not actually counting them) of the dealer Ace up cards that happen on the first hand are blackjacks. Is there any math to go with this?
First start of the deck, dealer has an Ace up, do YOU take insurance? Im guessing a lot of us have min bets up at this point anyways (minus STers) so curious as to peoples thoughts about the subject. I feel like I might just start taking insurance on first hand dealer Ace ups because it seems to happen so much, even if the count doesnt warrant for it.

Plus I figured I would pop this question since the thread before this, is about no one posting voodoo strats

I've had that happen a lot. I think it's because we tend to remember when such things happen but easily forget when the dealer gets early aces and does not have blackjack. It's similar to when it seems like every time you hit a 16 against a dealer ten or ace you bust, or a 12 against a dealer 2 or 3. The times you don't bust are quickly forgotten, but the times you bust are burned indelibly in your memory, especially if you get several in quick succession. In can be the start of a negative attitude, "no matter what I do, I lose," which cannot help you make logical, count-based decisions. If you find yourself deliberately doing the wrong thing, like taking insurance against a dealer ace in a negative count, or standing on 12 vs. 2 in a negative count, quit. You need an attitudinal adjustment, which is not a drink, but preferably a good night's sleep. This is general advice and may not apply to you.

[c.davide]

Originally Posted by S2krazy03

Ive noticed that it seems like probably 80% (just a wild guess, not actually counting them) of the dealer Ace up cards that happen on the first hand are blackjacks. Is there any math to go with this?
First start of the deck, dealer has an Ace up, do YOU take insurance? Im guessing a lot of us have min bets up at this point anyways (minus STers) so curious as to peoples thoughts about the subject. I feel like I might just start taking insurance on first hand dealer Ace ups because it seems to happen so much, even if the count doesnt warrant for it.

Plus I figured I would pop this question since the thread before this, is about no one posting voodoo strats

i don't think!

[Shoofly]

Originally Posted by S2krazy03

Ive noticed that it seems like probably 80% (just a wild guess, not actually counting them) of the dealer Ace up cards that happen on the first hand are blackjacks. Is there any math to go with this?

Nope. It just "seems like". Just as it "seems like" when the dealer shows an Ace with no BJ, he turns up a 9 in the hole to push your 20 or beat your 19. And with a 10 showing, it "seems like" the dealer will have a 10 in the hole most of the time. Ain't so. Trust the math.