Hail Mary Blackjack Bankroll Defined

[Friendo]

Originally Posted by Severity8

... what are the odds for the guy who saved up $500 or a grand. For the guy playing $500 thats 1/20th of $10K or a 1 in 20 shot of success in a perfect world right or would it be worse?

Way, way worse.

I won't even address the $500 situation, because that's within statistical noise even when you're red chipping: $500 swings often happen in under an hour of play.

If you start with, say $1000 and manage a good run to $4000 - and that's a very good run - you have merely moved from a nearly hopeless bankroll to an abysmal one. You will, at that point, face a very high risk of ruin, and every fluctuation taking you below $4000 will make it worse again.

Even at red chip levels the downswings can be breathtaking.

[blackjack avenger]

Originally Posted by kewljason

If you flat bet, how can they be top bets?


I am just failing to understand your reasoning here, avernger, and apparently you are getting frustrated trying to explain it to me, so I will not pursue it further.

The point is that number of top bets does not really tell us ror. Give one 50 top bets with any spread and one can possibly play without it being Hail Mary as defined. Not being Hail Mary does not mean necessarily optimal or prudent.

[blackjack avenger]

13.53% fixed ror but you have half the funds, think the ror becomes about 36%. So by definition this is not Hail Mary because one has a 64% chance of not going broke. I think we agree that this is not a sound bank strategy.

[Severity8]

Just curious. It would have helped answer a lot of questions to know that my $500 that I scrounged when I first started up (that I lost 4 d*mn times) was no where near doable that my odds were like a 1/120 shot or worse lol. I'm nothing if not persistant and so far fifth time's a charm fingers crossed but I've come to the realization that I will probably lose this as well. It's difficult to realize that even though your doing your best and applying the correct skills that unless you are properly bank rolled......... with all your new skill, knowledge, books and advice you are no more than a AP'er who is doing exactly what he is trying not to do and that's gamble. New counters should get a graph of what your odds are with what money have and be told to go watch the movie Rocky and then ask if they're still interested.

[blackjack avenger]

Originally Posted by Severity8

Just curious. It would have helped answer a lot of questions to know that my $500 that I scrounged when I first started up (that I lost 4 d*mn times) was no where near doable that my odds were like a 1/120 shot or worse lol. I'm nothing if not persistant and so far fifth time's a charm fingers crossed but I've come to the realization that I will probably lose this as well. It's difficult to realize that even though your doing your best and applying the correct skills that unless you are properly bank rolled......... with all your new skill, knowledge, books and advice you are no more than a AP'er who is doing exactly what he is trying not to do and that's gamble. New counters should get a graph of what your odds are with what money have and be told to go watch the movie Rocky and then ask if they're still interested.

If you don't have the cash to overcome expenses of $.50 per mile driven, bad.
If you don't have the cash to finish a session, very bad.
If you don't have the cash to finish a shoe worse.