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  #1  
Old October 2nd, 2011, 03:43 PM
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sagefr0g sagefr0g is offline
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Default going for the brass ring

there is a merry go round with twelve horses, and a brass ring worth $29 after the cost of the ride.
if i'm the only one on the merry go round, i'm gonna get that ring every time and make $29.
so now say i'm on the merry go round with eleven other riders and each of us have an equal chance (equal skills) of getting the brass ring (still same cost involved for each ride).
long run, i'm gonna expect to make 1/12 of $29 or in essence $2.42/ride, no?
Macho, stay out of this, lol, no just kidding you can answer.
there is no such thing as a stupid question, right?
  #2  
Old October 2nd, 2011, 04:06 PM
tthree tthree is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sagefr0g View Post
there is a merry go round with twelve horses, and a brass ring worth $29 after the cost of the ride.
if i'm the only one on the merry go round, i'm gonna get that ring every time and make $29.
so now say i'm on the merry go round with eleven other riders and each of us have an equal chance (equal skills) of getting the brass ring (still same cost involved for each ride).
long run, i'm gonna expect to make 1/12 of $29 or in essence $2.42/ride, no?
Macho, stay out of this, lol, no just kidding you can answer.
there is no such thing as a stupid question, right?
NO, you make ($29 - 11*ridecost)/12 for each cycle.
  #3  
Old October 2nd, 2011, 04:23 PM
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SleightOfHand SleightOfHand is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tthree View Post
NO, you make ($29 - 11*ridecost)/12 for each cycle.
That depends if you get your money back if you win the prize. It would be $29/12 - ridecost if you dont. But it sounds like there is no cost at all, making it just $29/12
  #4  
Old October 2nd, 2011, 04:31 PM
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sagefr0g sagefr0g is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tthree View Post
NO, you make ($29 - 11*ridecost)/12 for each cycle.
Quote:
SleightOfHand
Quote:
Originally Posted by tthree View Post
.
That depends if you get your money back if you win the prize. It would be $29/12 - ridecost if you dont. But it sounds like there is no cost at all, making it just $29/12
errhhh, the $29 is EV after ride cost, if that helps
uhhmm, should'a mentioned that the $29 is EV, i guess.

Last edited by sagefr0g; October 2nd, 2011 at 04:43 PM. Reason: fixed quote....
  #5  
Old October 2nd, 2011, 04:33 PM
tthree tthree is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sagefr0g View Post
there is a merry go round with twelve horses, and a brass ring worth $29 after the cost of the ride.
There appears to be a cost of the ride being deducted from the ring value to arrive at $29.

Quote:
if i'm the only one on the merry go round, i'm gonna get that ring every time and make $29.
so now say i'm on the merry go round with eleven other riders and each of us have an equal chance (equal skills) of getting the brass ring (still same cost involved for each ride).
long run, i'm gonna expect to make 1/12 of $29 or in essence $2.42/ride, no?
The other 11 times you don't get the ring costs you the ride fee. If the ride fee is 0 my equation is still correct.
  #6  
Old October 2nd, 2011, 04:52 PM
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sagefr0g sagefr0g is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tthree View Post
NO, you make ($29 - 11*ridecost)/12 for each cycle.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tthree View Post
There appears to be a cost of the ride being deducted from the ring value to arrive at $29.
correct..... the $29 is EV after cost for the lone rider, (edit: errhh long run)

Quote:
The other 11 times you don't get the ring costs you the ride fee. If the ride fee is 0 my equation is still correct.
yes, the ride always has a cost. thing is i'm wondering, if the EV for the lone rider is $29 after cost, then wouldn't the EV for the rider with eleven competitors just be $29/12 = $2.42, long run?

Last edited by sagefr0g; October 2nd, 2011 at 04:57 PM.
  #7  
Old October 2nd, 2011, 05:00 PM
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Richard Munchkin Richard Munchkin is offline
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I think it would make things much clearer if you just said what is the cost to ride and the actual prize.
  #8  
Old October 2nd, 2011, 05:06 PM
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sagefr0g sagefr0g is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Munchkin View Post
I think it would make things much clearer if you just said what is the cost to ride and the actual prize.
the cost of the ride is always X plus or minus standard deviation.
once that is factored in the brass ring has an EV = $29 for the lone rider, (edit) the cost for the rider with competitors is still X plus or minus standard deviation.
think i got that right,
edit: so the question, really is, what is the EV for the rider with eleven competitors?
......
.....
edit: actually the real scenario is more complicated, in that the cost of the ride decreases with each competitor, but let's just forget that part of the equation, lol.

Last edited by sagefr0g; October 2nd, 2011 at 05:27 PM. Reason: spielling & clarification
  #9  
Old October 2nd, 2011, 05:33 PM
tthree tthree is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sagefr0g View Post
the cost of the ride is always X plus or minus standard deviation.
once that is factored in the brass ring has an EV = $29 for the lone rider, (edit) the cost for the rider with competitors is still X plus or minus standard deviation.
think i got that right,
edit: so the question, really is, what is the EV for the rider with eleven competitors?
......
.....
edit: actually the real scenario is more complicated, in that the cost of the ride decreases with each competitor, but let's just forget that part of the equation, lol.
Y = value of the prize
X = cost of the ride
Y - X = $29

EV = (Y - 12*X)/12 = ($29 - 11*X)/12

That is the same as I said before.
  #10  
Old October 2nd, 2011, 07:53 PM
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blackjack avenger blackjack avenger is offline
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Default this simple?

You pay the same amount whenever you get on the ride. Let's say X

The EV is whatever the ring is worth divided by number of riders. Let's say Y

So Y - X is the EV?

Last edited by blackjack avenger; October 3rd, 2011 at 04:27 AM.
 

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