
October 12th, 2011, 06:49 PM


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Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 8,683


Quote:
Originally Posted by Machinist
Aslan apply what Sage is saying to the discussion we had on chat about a month ago, i think there was 4 or 5 of us in the room at the time. We discussed a type of game with progressives if you remember..
Remember that night when i decided to let out a bit of info on some new machines to the select few that happened to be in the room? I mean i have never ever put anything of value on this site, well at least not in black and white type...... Now that would be foolishness
Add that to the brass ring theory of Sages.......
Machinist

Right. Between what Sage said and what you just said, we're talking about the colorblind pickers who don't know green apples from ripe ones. All they know is that the picking is best sometime in the Fall.

October 12th, 2011, 07:12 PM


Executive Member


Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 5,141


Quote:
Originally Posted by tthree
Frog, my old eyes can't read that. I even got out my magnifying glasses for fly tying and other fine work. Couldn't read any of it.
Maybe I should use this emoticon. I gave up the patch for my blind eye a while back but this is what I used to look like .

the top image is where our hero has a 'static' 10:1 advantage against each individual competitor in the field over the various field compositions (errhh i think it is, lol) the success percentage rate is 72.55% for our hero
the middle image is where our hero has a 'static' 8.55:1 advantage against each individual competitor in the field over the various field compositions the success percentage rate is 69.62% for our hero
the bottom image is my original stipulation of an advantage mix where our hero has a 'variable' average 8.55:1 advantage against each individual competitor in the field over the various field compositions the success percentage rate is 69.03% for our hero.
confusing, i know, not even really sure if i'm describing this right, lol

October 12th, 2011, 07:13 PM


Executive Member


Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 5,141


Quote:
Originally Posted by aslan
Right. Between what Sage said and what you just said, we're talking about the colorblind pickers who don't know green apples from ripe ones. All they know is that the picking is best sometime in the Fall.

that's just about right, except they don't even know that part about the Fall.

October 12th, 2011, 08:01 PM


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Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 8,683


Quote:
Originally Posted by sagefr0g
that's just about right, except they don't even know that part about the Fall.

Yup, but the ones who don't can't exactly be called competitors except in the inadvertent sense. By your definition of competitor, some of them be picking apple blossoms.

October 12th, 2011, 09:07 PM


Executive Member


Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 5,141


Quote:
Originally Posted by aslan
Yup, but the ones who don't can't exactly be called competitors except in the inadvertent sense. By your definition of competitor, some of them be picking apple blossoms.

damm!!! yer right, we better start crunching some more numbers.

October 13th, 2011, 08:46 PM

Senior Member


Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 355


We're still talking about this?? You're overthinking this...the expected value of the ring after the cost of all riders can be calculated. You can calculate your odds of getting the ring. Your EV in this specific case is simply the chances of winning the ring times the EV of the ring. The fact that you sometimes pay some of the cost and don't win doesn't matter because that is exactly balanced out by the fact that they pay some of the cost the times that you win. Bottom line is you maximize your value by maximizing your chances of winning. Doesn't matter how many people are there at the time or how they are playing. Just do what you can do to maximize your chances, regardless of the number of players. You know how to do that. So do it

October 14th, 2011, 10:16 AM


Executive Member


Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 8,683


Quote:
Originally Posted by Nynefingers
We're still talking about this?? You're overthinking this...the expected value of the ring after the cost of all riders can be calculated. You can calculate your odds of getting the ring. Your EV in this specific case is simply the chances of winning the ring times the EV of the ring. The fact that you sometimes pay some of the cost and don't win doesn't matter because that is exactly balanced out by the fact that they pay some of the cost the times that you win. Bottom line is you maximize your value by maximizing your chances of winning. Doesn't matter how many people are there at the time or how they are playing. Just do what you can do to maximize your chances, regardless of the number of players. You know how to do that. So do it

I don't think we're talking about blackjack. It has a lot to do with when to buy a ticket and jump on the merrygoround, but sometimes people get on at the wrong time and grab the brass ring when the odds clearly do not favor them to do so. Then it's off to find another merrygoround, if that makes any sense. If you just ride any merrygoround you happen upon, you will quickly go broke buying tickets, unless you're fortunate enough to grab the brass ring, and the odds are usually stacked against it. Merrygorounds make me dizzy, anyway; I think I may take up Wheels of Fortune.

October 17th, 2011, 05:11 PM


Executive Member


Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 5,141


anal a'int it
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nynefingers
We're still talking about this?? You're overthinking this...the expected value of the ring after the cost of all riders can be calculated. You can calculate your odds of getting the ring. Your EV in this specific case is simply the chances of winning the ring times the EV of the ring. The fact that you sometimes pay some of the cost and don't win doesn't matter because that is exactly balanced out by the fact that they pay some of the cost the times that you win. Bottom line is you maximize your value by maximizing your chances of winning. Doesn't matter how many people are there at the time or how they are playing. Just do what you can do to maximize your chances, regardless of the number of players. You know how to do that. So do it

yah, i know yer correct, especially from a practical vantage point.
just, do enough of these merry go rides, and you start wondering about stuff.
then the situation being what it is, ie. being more complex, than a merry go round, and yah really start wondering.
whatever, should it be so fortunate as to go on a long time, i could definitely imagine taking some more 'laser' tactics than the practical approach.

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