Stock Market is a Suckers Game

[Sucker]

The stock market is a suckers game. Blackjack is a suckers game. Anything that involves competition is a suckers game.

However; if it were not for suckers, there would be no APs. Thank God for suckers games!

[johndoe]

You can't just hand-pick an arbitrary year to compare. A more telling graph is here:



"On a total return basis, gold has had an average annual growth rate of 8.47% (1973-2010), while the S&P 500 TR Index has had an average annual growth rate of 9.84%. Neither of these numbers reflect sales and management expenses or transaction fees."

Source: http://allfinancialmatters.com/2011/...dex-1973-2010/

[shadroch]

Originally Posted by blackjack avenger

I wonder how market returns would fare once all the scandals are factored in?

How do you imagine scandals would affect it? Without scandals, I suppose it would have been higher, but there is no way of knowing.

A person investing $8,000 in gold in 1979 would have about $23,000 today.
A person investing $8,000 in a fund that tracked the Dow would have
about $200,000 today.
When you sell stocks you pay a small commision. In the precious metals industry, the spread between the buy and sell price is much higher.

Those are the simple facts. You can argue those are not typical results, or that future results may or may not match those numbers, but you can't argue with the results.

[Machinist]

Originally Posted by blackjack avenger

Studies show a diversified portfolio outperforms. You did not mention foreign investments.

I quit buying foreign investment 7 years ago or so. I got tired of the crap breaking that I bought at Walmart
Good point Avenger
Wonder what would be a good investment from overseas?

Mac

[Machinist]

Originally Posted by Sucker

The stock market is a suckers game. Blackjack is a suckers game. Anything that involves competition is a suckers game.

However; if it were not for suckers, there would be no APs. Thank God for suckers games!

Amen Sucker..........everyday life is a suckers game....

Mac

[shadroch]

Originally Posted by johndoe

You can't just hand-pick an arbitrary year to compare. A more telling graph is here:



"On a total return basis, gold has had an average annual growth rate of 8.47% (1973-2010), while the S&P 500 TR Index has had an average annual growth rate of 9.84%. Neither of these numbers reflect sales and management expenses or transaction fees."

Source: http://allfinancialmatters.com/2011/...dex-1973-2010/

But stocks pay dividends and precious metals don't. With compounding of those dividends, the gap grows much larger. For a long term investor, those compounded dividends will eventually surpass the intial investment in the stocks. Gold sits and doesn't grow. 100 shares of stock will become 200 or more shares as the dividends are reinvested, or a person can use the dividends as income. Gold sits, it doesn't grow and it doesn't produce either dividends or income.
There is nothing wrong with owning precious metals. Its just not the best place to park all your money. Neither is the stock market.
But if I had to do 100% of one or the other, I'd own no gold.
These days, I'm buying High Grade comic books. Just recieved a copy of the first appearence of Spiderman in on consignment. i'd like to buy it myself but its a bit out of my price range just now. I think that will double in price before either gold or the Dow does.

[blackjack avenger]

Originally Posted by shadroch

How do you imagine scandals would affect it? Without scandals, I suppose it would have been higher, but there is no way of knowing.

A person investing $8,000 in gold in 1979 would have about $23,000 today.
A person investing $8,000 in a fund that tracked the Dow would have
about $200,000 today.
When you sell stocks you pay a small commision. In the precious metals industry, the spread between the buy and sell price is much higher.

Those are the simple facts. You can argue those are not typical results, or that future results may or may not match those numbers, but you can't argue with the results.

My thinking:
Let's consider BJ
We believe cheating is out there
So when we run our little sim & it tells us our EV is $25, that does not factor a potential cost of cheating.

So when one talks of a X% of return on stocks, does that factor in cheating? Probably not, so the return is less then stated.

[Jack_Black]

The stock market in general is so 1930s. Too many regulations and restrictions. Too many scandals, swindlers and scheisters. and most importantly, too little volume. we're talking billions of dollars being traded on a good day. How about let's try for trillions in the forex market or Thunder's favorite, E-mini futures. It's just impossible for an organization of any size to influence those markets. Yes govt banks can influence a change for a very brief period by releasing more or less notes, changing the interest rate, etc. but what you see is what you get. If the market doesn't like the USD, then there ain't no stopping it. not from the Fed, not from Obama, not even God himself can stop the slide.

The stock market is like a poker game. you never know if you're being cheated or outplayed, and no one cares if you do get cheated.

I remember Billy Walters interview on 60 minutes. He talks about how he's dealt with hustlers all of his life, and how he's beaten them to become the successful sports bettor that he is today. Then he talks about how he's only been out hustled by wall street and how those were only his big losses, resulting from being scammed by high class hustlers.

[shadroch]

Originally Posted by blackjack avenger

My thinking:
Let's consider BJ
We believe cheating is out there
So when we run our little sim & it tells us our EV is $25, that does not factor a potential cost of cheating.

So when one talks of a X% of return on stocks, does that factor in cheating? Probably not, so the return is less then stated.

The return is, quite simply, the return. If you want to say that cheating may affect the return, thats one thing, but to say the return is less than is stated is to be clueless. A return is not a hypothetical EV, it is the real life actual result.

[Machinist]

Originally Posted by Jack_Black

The stock market in general is so 1930s. Too many regulations and restrictions. Too many scandals, swindlers and scheisters. and most importantly, too little volume. we're talking billions of dollars being traded on a good day. How about let's try for trillions in the forex market or Thunder's favorite, E-mini futures. It's just impossible for an organization of any size to influence those markets. Yes govt banks can influence a change for a very brief period by releasing more or less notes, changing the interest rate, etc. but what you see is what you get. If the market doesn't like the USD, then there ain't no stopping it. not from the Fed, not from Obama, not even God himself can stop the slide.

The stock market is like a poker game. you never know if you're being cheated or outplayed, and no one cares if you do get cheated.

I remember Billy Walters interview on 60 minutes. He talks about how he's dealt with hustlers all of his life, and how he's beaten them to become the successful sports bettor that he is today. Then he talks about how he's only been out hustled by wall street and how those were only his big losses, resulting from being scammed by high class hustlers.

Agreed my friend.

Machinist