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#11
October 12th, 2011, 09:31 AM
 PonyPrincess Member Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 59

You have to factor in if the dealer gets the ace you're at a 36% disadvantage.

But yeah you can figure out what the advantage is for that first 14 cards because it'd be in HiLo a +1 RC / (14/52) = ~+3.5 true count.
#12
October 12th, 2011, 01:15 PM
 Gamblor Executive Member Join Date: Mar 2011 Location: Casino backroom Posts: 1,118

Quote:
 Originally Posted by PonyPrincess You have to factor in if the dealer gets the ace you're at a 36% disadvantage. But yeah you can figure out what the advantage is for that first 14 cards because it'd be in HiLo a +1 RC / (14/52) = ~+3.5 true count.
Right that's one good way to go about it, but keep in mind that since you know its definitely an ace (not a 20% its ace and 80% its 10), your EV is higher than a ~+3.5 TC.
#13
October 18th, 2011, 09:23 AM
 Ferretnparrot Executive Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: New jersey Posts: 595

+3.5 tc is a good approach to looking at it in the correct manor, but the HILO undervalues the EV of the ACE so the advantage is surely higher than what the ev of +3.5 woudl suggest.

The ace IS NOT WORTH 52% in this manor!!! It is only worth that if you are to be dealt it as one of your initial cards. In this case, it is simply added to the shoe.

The effect of removal for an ACE is 0.58% per deck so the effect of adding it to a quarter deck would be roughly 4 times that, say 2.3% change less the house edge and you have an approximation of your answer.

14 cards is not a big window, but half a deck is, and you still have an edge with half a deck, and about break even with 1 deck so as long as you can cut the card ~INTO PLAY within a deck, you wont be losing money.

I think its more feasable in shoe games, but if you can do it in DD, that awesome im sure youll score lots of bonus EV hands and good cover.

while playing DD in this manor, a full table would require a lower bet spread for attacking this event since the number of -EV rounds dealt after is reduced.
#14
October 24th, 2011, 03:04 AM
 joeblackjack Member Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 34

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Ferretnparrot The ace IS NOT WORTH 52% in this manor!!! It is only worth that if you are to be dealt it as one of your initial cards.
I'm aware that it's only worth that much if it's one of the first 2 cards...my original post was assuming that you were playing 6 spots, and thus an ace would appear in someone's first 2 cards (though possibly in the dealer's first two cards as well).

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Ferretnparrot 14 cards is not a big window, but half a deck is, and you still have an edge with half a deck, and about break even with 1 deck so as long as you can cut the card ~INTO PLAY within a deck, you wont be losing money.
You bring up an interesting point. If you were playing on a manually shuffled single deck game, it seems then that it would be relatively simple matter to track at least 1 ace and ensure that it is cut somewhere into the first 1/2 deck (assuming random distribution, obviously other aces would be in play most of the time as well, but by ensuring that 1 is always there, you would be at a minimum diluting the house edge). If this would yield an overall edge with flat or random betting, it seems like a far less detectable way to play with +EV than counting or virtually any other AP method. You could destroy places like Reno where single deck games are plentiful and not get barred.

I also wonder if some places have at least entertained the possibility that merely cutting correctly could yield overall +EV. During a recent trip to Reno to practice counting, one of the places I went was the Grand Sierra. There, by default they do not cut the cards at all. Players can request a cut, but the dealer must call out "player cut" to the floorman. I have never seen a store that discouraged player cutting before, or that even allow games to be dealt without a cut.

Last edited by joeblackjack; October 25th, 2011 at 07:18 AM.
#15
October 30th, 2011, 12:39 PM
 Gamblor Executive Member Join Date: Mar 2011 Location: Casino backroom Posts: 1,118

Quote:
 Originally Posted by joeblackjack I also wonder if some places have at least entertained the possibility that merely cutting correctly could yield overall +EV. During a recent trip to Reno to practice counting, one of the places I went was the Grand Sierra. There, by default they do not cut the cards at all. Players can request a cut, but the dealer must call out "player cut" to the floorman. I have never seen a store that discouraged player cutting before, or that even allow games to be dealt without a cut.
LOL. I've never seen this either. Probably opening up other bigger problems by not cutting the deck.

Definitely messes up the sacred flow of the cards!

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