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Old October 21st, 2011, 11:22 AM
Terc Terc is offline
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Default Progressive loss betting strategy

Greetings fellow counters. I've been reading this forum for several months now as a guest and decided to finally register. I was in Vegas last week for a 4-day trip where I spent quite a bit of time at the BJ tables, so I'll start my first post with an interesting experience and then edit my post later and tell you guys a little about myself.

I was at the casino in Vegas which has all of the exterior of its glass windows stained a bright gold color. Game was 6D H17 $10 minimum with 1 1/2 decks cut off. I had been playing for about an hour with one other player and the count was neutral or close to neutral almost the entire time (BOORRRINGGGG).

The gambler playing with me finally gambles all his money away and right as he leaves, a group of 4 young players like myself (early-mid 20's) walk over and sit down. They seem unusally excited about playing, as if they have been planning this outing for quite some time. I exchange pleasantries with them and make friends with the chatty asian guy to my left sitting at second base.

I watch their play casually, and they all seem to be playing 90% correct BS or so. After about 20 minutes, the girl with them at the table catches a bad run and she loses 3-4 hands in a row. I notice that after each loss, her bet becomes progressively larger, almost exponentially. First $10, then $40, then $150, then $200. I use my best ploppy interested 'Tell me your secret' voice and ask the asian about this phenomenon and he simply replies, "we have a system we use," and he smiles as if this is a proven strategy. The girl finally wins a hand with a $250 or so bet out after a bunch of losses and reduces her bet back to her starting point at the table minimum.

After another 15 minutes of observation, I realize that all 4 of these people are betting exponentially more after each loss. Each of them bought in for $300, so I am genuinely worried that they will all crash and burn. I convey my concern to the asian, using my personal experiences of 'endless' runs of losing hands. He doesn't take me seriously and they continue playing as before. We go through a couple shoes and two of them wipe out their buy-in and get up from the table to watch from a standing position. The girl colors up with $100 or so in profit. Now it's just me and the chatty asian dude.

Shortly after my warning to the asian, he catches a run of losing 4-5 hands. His bet is out now at $500. As dumb luck would have it, he wins his $500. He is beaming with satisfaction, completely unaware that he was betting progressively higher into an AWFUL count (I don't recall what it was exactly but I know it was not even close to the pivot point). By then, I had been playing for a couple hours with no gains to show for it, so I was quite annoyed that this guy had sat down and won a single hand for $500 in less than half that time. I was considering wonging out, but I decided to stay just to see how the rest of the shoe played out for him.

Several hands before the end of the same shoe, he catches another bad run. That $500 bet comes out again and he busts. I can see his anxiety mounting as he reaches into his wallet for another set of benjamins. Almost visually sweating at this point, he quickly throws down another ~$500 bet and loses. His table chips are all gone and his wallet is empty. I am happy as a clam to witness this firsthand. He gets up in a huff and leaves with his friends.

The progressive loss betting strategy.

Last edited by Terc; October 21st, 2011 at 11:50 AM.
  #2  
Old October 21st, 2011, 11:43 AM
stopgambling stopgambling is offline
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Not trying to be a jerk ,but shouldn't we all know this??? .There seems to be not much of a point in talking about it.One thing i want to say is ,i feel bad for him,but if he does not lose ,we will not have a chance to play .It is survival.
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Old October 21st, 2011, 11:46 AM
HsiaoDi HsiaoDi is offline
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Maybe he should have place another 1000 bet to win it all back.....
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Old October 21st, 2011, 11:54 AM
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Originally Posted by HsiaoDi View Post
Maybe he should have place another 1000 bet to win it all back.....
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Size:  370 BytesThat's the ticket!
  #5  
Old October 21st, 2011, 02:53 PM
RollingStoned RollingStoned is offline
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[s]About a week or two my friend was telling me about this 'perfect strategy' that you're describing. I made a thread asking about it and got some decent answers..though I'm still a bit confused myself.

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=23708


It seems like a great strategy, so chances are you will win some money in the short run, but at a possibly large expense (not worth it).[/s]

Woops, didn't read your entire thread (last 2 or 3 paragraphs). That could have been me there losing $500+ in a short few hands....but I don't think I have the balls, lack-of-knowledge-stuff, and bankroll to do that. =\

Last edited by RollingStoned; October 21st, 2011 at 02:56 PM.
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Old October 21st, 2011, 05:27 PM
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FLASH1296 FLASH1296 is offline
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Terc

You stated "I am happy as a clam to witness this firsthand."

You sadistically revel in the suffering of stoopid strangers ?
  #7  
Old October 21st, 2011, 08:15 PM
Mewtwo Mewtwo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FLASH1296 View Post
Terc

You stated "I am happy as a clam to witness this firsthand."

You sadistically revel in the suffering of stoopid strangers ?
Don't the ploppies that empty their wallets subsidize advantage play at the casinos that do tolerate it to a degree?
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Old October 21st, 2011, 09:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Mewtwo View Post
Don't the ploppies that empty their wallets subsidize advantage play at the casinos that do tolerate it to a degree?
Personally, I wish all the casinos would go out of business because they are -EV for society. I hate to see someone stupidly lose more than they can afford. There are enough small losers to make gaming a profitable industry without the tragic cases. In fact, I think small losers make up the vast majority of casino customers and likely account for the major portion of their revenues.
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Old October 21st, 2011, 10:41 PM
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bejammin075 bejammin075 is offline
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Default Here's how I had to explain it to

someone I know who was going to Vegas with this big dumb grin, telling me about this type of betting system. Assume it works as planned for a while. If you get a few losses in a row, you make it all back, and then some, with a win. But that "and then some" is just your minimum bet. So if your min bet is $10, at the end of the run, you make $10. So five losses in a row, followed by a win, you lose 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, totalling $310, and you win $320. Putting up over 300 to win 10 is a very risky plan. And then figure you are going to have losing streaks that could easily get just a bit longer, and pretty soon you are faced with the absurd strategy of putting several thousands at risk just to get $10.
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Old October 21st, 2011, 11:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bejammin075 View Post
someone I know who was going to Vegas with this big dumb grin, telling me about this type of betting system. Assume it works as planned for a while. If you get a few losses in a row, you make it all back, and then some, with a win. But that "and then some" is just your minimum bet. So if your min bet is $10, at the end of the run, you make $10. So five losses in a row, followed by a win, you lose 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, totalling $310, and you win $320. Putting up over 300 to win 10 is a very risky plan. And then figure you are going to have losing streaks that could easily get just a bit longer, and pretty soon you are faced with the absurd strategy of putting several thousands at risk just to get $10.
I had a friend who thought he had the goose who laid the golden egg. He would progress three times, then go back to zero. I pleaded with him not to do it. He said he could not lose. We went to Reno, and he lost his shirt. He could not believe that he would lose three times in a row so often. All I could do was shake my head.
 

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